Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

Update issued to add in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 for
Yuma...Cheyenne...Decatur...Rawlins...Dundy...Hitchcock and Red
Willow counties until 05z.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 for Gove...Graham and Norton
counties until 05z remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

An upper level low pressure area was located over southern Arizona
early this afternoon with a weather disturbance ahead of it
initiating some thunderstorms across the far west and east-southeast
parts of the forecast area. For the rest of the afternoon and
evening am expecting an increase coverage and intensity as upper
level jet moves over the area. From midnight through early Wednesday
morning dry air aloft should prevent precipitation from developing
across all but far eastern Colorado. Around and shortly before
sunrise wraparound moisture/precipitation increases behind the
departing wound up low pressure center. Northwest winds will
increase into the 20 to 30 mph range from much of the area by
sunrise as well. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 40s
west to mid 50s east.

For Wednesday main weather story will be the wind. Northwest winds
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected. Wraparound
showers and extensive cloud cover expected in the morning for some
with a decrease in coverage in the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
look to reach the mid 60s across the north to the mid 70s across the
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

The first of two upper lows continues northeast of the region
Wednesday night reaching the Great Lakes. Dry conditions return to
much of the area with upper ridging building in behind the low.
However, the dry period is short lived with another round of
precipitation moving in from the west.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, a second and stronger upper low tracks
from the northern desert southwest towards the High Plains,
reintroducing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
Precipitation chances enter from the west late Wednesday and persist
across the area through Friday night. Potential for severe weather
appears to remain south and east of the region.

The system advances to the northeast on Saturday and surface high
pressure settles in, yielding dry weather for the majority of the
weekend under west/northwest flow aloft. The next opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms will be early next week when another upper
shortwave swings through the High Plains.

The cooling trend continues at the end of the work week as cooler
air filters into the region and drops temperatures into the upper
40s to upper 50s for Friday. Highs rebound over the weekend,
reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the 40s Wednesday night. However, Thursday and Friday
nights show lows in the 30s. This may be enough to produce a brief
rain snow mix in parts of eastern Colorado both nights. Low
temperatures recover into the 40s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

For KGLD...thru 05z tonight...mainly VFR conditions with some
thunderstorms possible. After 05z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR mix as low
clouds and showers set into the area. Looking for ceilings
BKN007-015 and 4sm in showers during this time. Winds thru 05z ESE
becoming S 10-20kts. After 05z Wednesday...becoming NNW and
increasing to 20-30kts with some gusts near 40kts after 16z.

For KMCK...thru 08z tonight...mainly VFR conditions with some
thunderstorms possible. After 08z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR mix as low
clouds and showers set into the area. Looking for ceilings
BKN007-015 and 5sm in showers/fog during this time. Winds thru
11z ENE 10-20kts. After 11z Wednesday...becoming NNW and
increasing to 15-30kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
250 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017 /350 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
The primary threats will be hail to the size of golfballs, damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s
generally along and west of the Colorado Kansas border early Saturday
morning. Frost and freeze conditions are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
701 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSZ001-013-170145-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
701 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND NORTH
CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 745 PM MDT/845
PM CDT/...

At 701 PM MDT/801 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles south of St. Francis, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis, Bird City and Wheeler.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM
MDT/midnight CDT/ for northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3949 10186 3964 10190 3988 10173 3971 10148
      3949 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 208DEG 21KT 3965 10180

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
749 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             HERNDON                 39.91N 100.79W
05/16/2017  M1.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
809 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             ENE GOODLAND            39.35N 101.71W
05/16/2017  M0.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             6 WNW ATWOOD            39.84N 101.14W
05/16/2017  M1.50 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH