Freeze Warning 13, NWS Grand Junction, CO

380 
WWUS75 KGJT 141738
NPWGJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

COZ006-UTZ027-029-150300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FZ.W.0013.171015T0600Z-171015T1500Z/
Grand Valley-Arches/Grand Flat-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
1138 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
MDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...Grand Junction, Fruita, Palisade, Moab, 
  Castle Valley, Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point 
  State Park, and Fry Canyon. 

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s to low 30s.

* TIMING...From midnight through 9AM Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Prolonged subfreezing temperatures will damage or 
  kill sensitive vegetation. Freezing and bursting of outdoor 
  water pipes is possible..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

766 
WWUS75 KGJT 150353
NPWGJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
953 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

COZ006-UTZ027-029-151200-
/O.CON.KGJT.FZ.W.0013.171015T0600Z-171015T1500Z/
Grand Valley-Arches/Grand Flat-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
953 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...Grand Junction, Fruita, Palisade, Moab, 
  Castle Valley, Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point 
  State Park, and Fry Canyon. 

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s to low 30s.

* TIMING...From midnight through 9AM Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Prolonged subfreezing temperatures will damage or 
  kill sensitive vegetation. Freezing and bursting of outdoor 
  water pipes is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

980 
WWUS75 KGJT 150930
NPWGJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

COZ006-UTZ027-029-151500-
/O.CON.KGJT.FZ.W.0013.000000T0000Z-171015T1500Z/
Grand Valley-Arches/Grand Flat-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
330 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...Grand Junction, Fruita, Palisade, Moab, 
  Castle Valley, Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point 
  State Park, and Fry Canyon. 

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s to lower 30s.

* TIMING...Through 9 AM this morning.

* IMPACTS...Prolonged subfreezing temperatures will damage or 
  kill sensitive vegetation. Freezing and bursting of outdoor 
  water pipes is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

727 
WWUS75 KGJT 151456
NPWGJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
856 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

COZ006-UTZ027-029-151600-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FZ.W.0013.000000T0000Z-171015T1500Z/
Grand Valley-Arches/Grand Flat-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
856 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures across most of the Grand Valley and southeast Utah 
have climbed back to above freezing. Therefore, the Freeze Warning
will be allowed to expire at 9 AM.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

As an upper shortwave trough moves through NE UT and NW and
central CO today, its surface cold front will move through the
area. The only sensible weather associated will be over the
northernmost mountains and along the CO and WY border. The more
widespread change will be a 10 to 15 degree drop in temperatures
today and tonight. For tonight and early Sunday morning Freeze
Watches were upgraded to Freeze Warnings for those valleys that
have not yet received a significant freeze. These areas include
the Grand Valley including the Grand Junction vicinity, the Utah
Grand Flat including Arches NP and Moab, and the lower elevations
of SE UT along the Colorado River including Canyonlands and
Natural Bridges.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Little to discuss in the extended period as models were consistent
with a dry forecast and near seasonal temperatures through
Thursday. On Monday, flow aloft comes from the northwest on the
leading edge of a shallow transient ridge of high pressure to the
west. The ridge axis shifts overhead Tuesday, then pushes east on
Wednesday resulting in a more zonal flow. A trough off the West
Coast moves onshore Thursday causing flow to shift to the
southwest. Large model discrepancies appear between the GFS and
ECMWF beginning Friday night. The GFS brings a much wetter airmass
to the area beginning late Thursday night suggesting good chances
for precipitation on Friday. In contrast, the 12Z/Friday ECMWF,
though similar in timing, presents a shallower and considerably
drier solution offering little to no chance of precipitation.
Model disparities provide little insight into most probable
outcome and forecast will represent a blend of persistence, GFS
and EC models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all the TAF sites for the next 24
hours. A cold front will bring gusty winds today and this evening
across eastern UT and western CO, with scattered showers over the
nigher peaks of northern CO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
     COZ006.

UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ027-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-150830-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
225 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will continue moving through the area today bringing
much cooler weather. There is a slight chance for rain and snow showers
across the northern mountains of eastern Utah and western Colorado
this afternoon and evening.

Freezing temperatures are expected tonight at lower elevations
with a Freeze Warning in effect for the Colorado Grand Valley and
the portions of the lower elevations of east- central and
southeast Utah where widespread freezes have yet to happen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another cold night is expected Sunday night, otherwise no hazardous
weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.