Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
701 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

We currently have a cluster of thunderstorms across western portions
of the forecast area this afternoon. This activity is associated
with a closed upper level low that is merging into the upper level
flow as an embedded shortwave that will slowly track east across the
area this evening through tonight. As it does so we look to stand a
decent chance of seeing precipitation across much of the area.

With weak shear in place the severe potential overall is somewhat
lacking. However, one storm has produced a wind gust to 50 mph in
Dawson county earlier this afternoon. The potential is there for
isolated strong winds to be brought down to the surface with the
precipitation. As the low level jet ramps up tonight thunderstorms
will likely linger into the overnight hours. With storms also
expected to move rather slowly, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible.

Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, as the upper wave tracks off
to the east thunderstorm development along the cold front is
possible as it enters northern Nebraska. The best chances for
severe weather remains off to the north and east, but there is the
potential for this activity to persist into our northeastern
zones through the evening.

The other headline for tomorrow is the addition of a heat advisory
that is now in effect for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heat
indices could reach into the 100s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The stretch of hot weather continues Wednesday through Friday with
heat indices of 100 to 108 possible. Decided to hold off on the
issuance of an excessive heat warning due to uncertainties of
whether we will meet advisory criteria on Friday. Felt that a heat
watch would be sufficient for now and can be upgraded during
later shifts if confidence increases in us having a 4-day stretch
heat advisory criteria.

The upper level ridge remains dominant across the plains through the
extended but it gradually start to shift back to the southwest by
Friday allowing mostly northwesterly flow to return. As it does
so, multiple shortwaves look to track across the area brining
scattered slight chances precip Friday evening through the end of
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Clusters of thunderstorms continue across the area this evening.
Isolated strong wind gusts have occurred with these storms so have
kept a TEMPO group that includes gusts to 30kts and lower
visibilities and ceilings through 2Z. Although a few isolated
thunderstorms could linger into the early morning hours, they are
expected to gradually shift off to the south and east of the TAF
sites.

Marginal low level wind shear is also possible overnight and have
updated to include KGRI as well starting around 7Z through 13Z.
Although winds will tend to be quite variable with any convection
through tonight, once things move out winds will become mostly
southerly around 5 to 10kts. There is the potential that stronger
gusts mix down to the surface overnight, but have currently opted
to keep winds generally light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...Petr
LONG TERM...Petr
AVIATION...Petr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
342 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight with hail up to the size
of quarters and winds of 50 to 60 mph possible. Localized
flooding is also possible with any slow moving storms containing
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday evening
into the overnight. A few of these storms could be strong to
severe with hail to the size of quarters and 50 to 60 mph wind
gusts.

Heat index values will climb to between 100 and 108 degrees each
afternoon Tuesday through Friday. See heat headlines for
additional details.

Chances for thunderstorms return to the area late Friday evening
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a very small chance of spotter activation for this
afternoon and tonight, but in most areas, spotter activation will
not be needed.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Petr

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