Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
405 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Predawn through 10 AM...
A line/broken line of showers and thunderstorms will track
northeast across the forecast area...primarily southeast of an
Elwood...Kearney...Greeley line. There is some elevated
instability...but generally less than 500 J/KG and thus given
limited instability these storms are expected to remain below
severe limits. However, small hail and gusty winds are still
possible as these thunderstorms track across the forecast area.
There was some earlier concern about possible fog, but with these
thunderstorms moving through fog seems more unlikely and thus have
pulled mention of fog out of the forecast for most areas. Low
clouds will expand northward out of Kansas and into Nebraska and
may at times be thick enough to produce light drizzle before
and/or after the line of thunderstorms. Patchy drizzle could
linger through the morning.

Late morning through 6pm...
Low clouds across the entire forecast area and breezy south
southeast winds (especially across southeastern zones) will keep
temperatures from rising much at all today. Much of the forecast
area from the Tri-Cities north and east will only make it into the
upper 60s to around 70 due to the clouds. Far southwest zones like
Stockton KS to Elwood NE could catch some late day sunshine that
could allow for a late afternoon spike in the temperatures into
the upper 70s. Some patchy drizzle will be possible into early
afternoon in association with the low cloud cover, but any
precipitation during this period would likely just be trace
amounts.

6pm into tonight...
Late day sunshine primarily just to our west will allow for
destabilization with afternoon heating. There will be a deepening
sfc low over eastern Colorado and a subtle vort max entering the
plains. Forecast models are conflicted on if this will be enough
for convection, which some models initiate across our western
zones and then track across our forecast area (primarily northern
zones) through the evening. If storms form they could be severe
with MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/KG and sufficient deep layer
shear across our western zones. There will be a bit of a cap and
am not sure the forcing will be sufficient to overcome it at least
as far as more widespread convection is concerned.
Therefore...will keep chance pops for more scattered convection.
0-3 km helicity values should be around 200 M2/S2 with 0-1 Bulk
shear around 20 kts. These are somewhat marginal values, but can
not rule out an isolated weak tornado if supercell storms can
form. However, the predominate severe threat will be large hail
and damaging winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

By Saturday morning, most of the precipitation will have moved into
eastern Nebraska and Kansas. A surface low and attendant cold front
is forecast to progress eastward through the day, with northwest
winds ushering much drier air into the region. Thunderstorms will
likely redevelop along this front during the afternoon and evening,
although it looks like any impact should be southeast of a line from
Osborne, KS to York, NE.

Primarily dry conditions are expected to prevail for Sunday as a
surface high makes its way through the area. Only slight chances for
precipitation return Sunday night into Monday morning, although
Monday afternoon into Tuesday will bring a better chance for
showers/storms as a more well-defined system tracks though the
region. That said, there are still considerable discrepancies
between the GFS and ECMWF. The EC solution would be much drier as it
tracks the H500 wave across the Dakotas, but the GFS is quite wet
for Nebraska as it plows the wave directly through the state.

We will remain in an active pattern through the latter half of the
week, with small perturbations bringing us several chances for
rain/storms. Unfortunately, there is very little agreement between
the GFS and EC on timing and location of these features, so the
forecast will keep at least slight PoPs through almost every period,
and hopefully this can be refined a bit in upcoming forecasts.

As far as temperatures go, it appears that Easter morning will be
the coldest morning of the week The current forecast has lows
dipping into the mid 30s around Ord and to around 40 in the tri-
cities. There is a chance that this could end up lower with light
winds and high pressure moving into the area. Otherwise, expect mild
conditions to continue with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the
50s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This is a rather complex aviation forecast with low clouds
expanding across Kansas as noted on the GOES-R 8.5-11.2 channel
differences. These low clouds should continue to expand northward
early this morning with IFR conditions possible at times. It is
hard to say how long the IFR conditions will last, but some
guidance keeps us under IFR ceilings well into the afternoon. Will
cautiously go a bit more optimistic and call for ceilings to rise
more quickly later this morning, but confidence is weak. Can not
rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm early this morning and
then late this evening, but chances are currently fairly low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
150930-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this morning...generally prior to
10 AM. The strongest storms could be capable of producing wind
gusts up to 55 mph and quarter size hail.

A second round of thunderstorms could re-develop this evening
primarily after 6 or 7 PM...with the primary severe weather
threats being wind gusts to 60 mph and golf ball size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a brief window for thunderstorms southeast of a line from
Osborne, KS to York, NE late Saturday afternoon.

Chances for thunderstorms return Sunday night, with off and on
chances continuing through the upcoming week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this morning and again this
evening in some areas.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
301 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

KSZ017-140830-
Rooks KS-
301 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stockton, or 25 miles south of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at 20
mph.

dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton and Woodston.

LAT...LON 3938 9938 3957 9928 3957 9905 3947 9904
      3942 9904 3929 9919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 214DEG 17KT 3938 9927

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
319 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

NEZ082-140900-
Furnas NE-
319 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

At 318 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilsonville, or 22 miles north of Norton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arapahoe and Hendley.

LAT...LON 4007 10005 4016 10013 4035 9991 4021 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 227DEG 15KT 4014 10004

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

KSZ005-NEZ082-083-140915-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
331 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...
SOUTHEASTERN FURNAS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Almena, or 15 miles northeast of Norton, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Stamford, Long Island and Hollinger.

LAT...LON 4003 9987 4025 9964 4006 9938 3987 9963
      4000 9963 4000 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 226DEG 15KT 4000 9969

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
511 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

NEZ084-141100-
Franklin NE-
511 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 600
AM CDT...

At 511 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Naponee, or 25 miles southeast of Holdrege, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin and Bloomington.

LAT...LON 4004 9912 4019 9916 4033 9886 4011 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 245DEG 21KT 4012 9912

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
515 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

NEZ084-085-141100-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
515 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 514 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Riverton, or 38 miles northeast of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at
25 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Cloud, Riverton, Cowles and Inavale.

LAT...LON 4000 9858 4000 9875 4006 9882 4030 9854
      4015 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 226DEG 20KT 4005 9872

Mangels