Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Another difficult forecast today through Friday. Challenges
included temperatures through the period, precipitation chances
and timing of the various precipitation waves.

The upper low is approaching from the southwest and the surface
low is expected to develop over eastern Colorado and western
Kansas this evening. Currently, skies are clearing from west to
east and temperatures are warming quickly helping to destabilize
the atmosphere. There is and will be a fairly sharp temperature
gradient when it's all said and done with for today. Tonight,
temperatures will remain fairly mild with breezy south winds and
warm moist advection. Tomorrow, there again could be a sharp
temperature gradient as the cold front impinges on the forecast
area with cooler air in the northwest and temperatures up to the
70s possible in the southeast.

On to precipitation chances and timing.

Tonight: The high resolution guidance continues to indicate the
development of thunderstorms this evening near 00z/7pm across
portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The
best chances will be west of a Grand Island, NE to Smith Center,
KS line. With plentiful shear and instability, supercells maybe
possible with large hail and damaging winds. Think this primary
threat will subside in the late evening/early overnight hours as
it transitions to more of a stratiform rain chance along the
front. Precipitation is possible across the forecast area
overnight, but again the best chances are off to the west.

Friday: As the upper low moves out over the Central Plains, the
frontogenesis along the cold front will keep precipitation chances
across north central to southwest Nebraska...this will clip
portions of central and south central Nebraska. Guidance today
continues to indicate that the dryslot will cover a good chunk of
the area tomorrow...currently looking like it will stay dry
southeast of a York, NE to Smith Center, KS line for much of the
day. Precipitation chances southeast of this line will be quite a
bit less, but cannot rule it out.

Other things: Did increase southerly winds tonight through
tomorrow across the area as well as those behind the front
tomorrow from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Precipitation should end during the evening and early overnight
hours Friday night with Saturday being dry. Highs on Saturday are
expected to be near normal for late March in the 50s to low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will follow quickly for Sunday
as the next disturbance moves over the Central Plains. There are
still discrepancies in exactly where the disturbance will track,
thus have precipitation chances in for much of the area for
Sunday afternoon and overnight. As we move through the work week,
there will be another chance for precipitation for mid-week.
Currently the upper flow looks to split with the the main
disturbance being cut off and tracking along the southern CONUS.
There are enough discrepancies that confidence is low on how this
system will evolve. Temperatures through the week look to be
seasonal in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Thunderstorms are possible or a few hours this evening. There is a
cold front that will move through the area late tonight and winds
will turn to the northeast. There will be a chance for showers on
and off through the remainder of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
404 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
242115-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
404 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the entire outlook area this
evening and overnight, Storms are expected mainly after 5 PM.
There will be the potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to
severe through the evening hours, mainly west of an Osceola,
Nebraska to Osborne, Kansas line. The primary hazards with any
severe thunderstorms would be hail to the size of quarter to
golfballs and wind gusts near 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through the day on Friday
into Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed mainly after 5 PM today.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

NEZ039-040-046-240130-
Valley NE-Greeley NE-Sherman NE-
749 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GREELEY...VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ansley, or 15 miles east of Broken Bow, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ord, Arcadia, Elyria and Fort Hartsuff State Park.

LAT...LON 4174 9869 4169 9862 4130 9920 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 224DEG 43KT 4134 9934

Heinlein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
833 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 W ARCADIA             41.42N 99.21W
03/23/2017  E1.00 INCH       VALLEY             NE   PUBLIC

            .

&&

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
841 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

KSZ005-NEZ083-240230-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-
841 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PHILLIPS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Almena, or 12 miles east of Norton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alma, Orleans, Prairie View, Long Island and Woodruff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4005 9963 4021 9944 3994 9912 3976 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 234DEG 27KT 3987 9966

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
907 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE OXFORD             40.22N 99.57W
03/23/2017  M63 MPH          HARLAN             NE   MESONET

            .

&&

PETR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
939 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOLDREGE                40.44N 99.37W
03/23/2017  M62 MPH          PHELPS             NE   AWOS

            .

&&

PETR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1016 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     KEARNEY AIRPORT         40.72N 99.01W
03/23/2017  M67 MPH          BUFFALO            NE   AWOS

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARAPAHOE                40.31N 99.90W
03/23/2017                   FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A TREE APPROXIMATELY 16" IN
            DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN.

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 S ELWOOD              40.48N 99.89W
03/23/2017  E60 MPH          GOSPER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH.

&&

NWS HASTINGS NE
IRIS SYSTEM