Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The cold front is currently sitting off to the northwest of the
forecast area. Ahead of the front southerly winds are strong with
sustained speeds between 20 and 30 mph with gusts between 30 and
40 mph. Scattered showers have been around the area through much
of the day, but most areas did not see much in the way of
accumulation. Temperatures are in the 80s to 90s across the area
and highs in the 90s, some mid to upper 90s are expected.

Tonight:
The main forecast concern tonight is if/when/where thunderstorms
may develop this evening before the front begins to move through
during the overnight hours. The higher resolution guidance
indicates the potential for thunderstorm development along the
moisture gradient in south central Nebraska/north central Kansas
around 6-7pm tonight. Confidence is not overly high with how this
will evolve, with the best convergence along the front, not along
this moisture gradient. But cannot rule it out and have included
precipitation chances through the evening across much of the area.
Later expect the best chances for thunderstorms to over central
and portions of south central Nebraska...mainly areas north of
Interstate 80. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to
severe.

The front will begin to push southeast during the late
evening/early morning hours tonight.

Saturday:
The cold front is expected to bisect the forecast area during the
day tomorrow before it fully pushes southeast of the forecast area
during the afternoon hours. Low stratus is expected to be present
behind the front for a majority of Nebraska and with the
combination of cooler air and clouds, highs tomorrow will be
cooler. Currently have highs in the 70s across much of the area,
but if clouds stick around longer, temps could be stunted even
further. Ahead of the front highs will be warm...into the 80s and
then falling as the front moves through. The best chances for
precipitation tomorrow will be along and east of the front into
eastern Nebraska and Kansas, but areas east of Highway 281 will
have at least a small chance during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Sunday - Monday:
Surface high pressure will move across northern Nebraska Sunday
morning. The front is expected to lift back to the north during
the afternoon and overnight hours. The best chances for
precipitation throughout the forecast look to be Sunday night into
Monday as an upper disturbance approaches with the frontal
boundary in the area. By Monday late morning/early afternoon the
disturbance will push to the east of the area and it should clear
out. Highs on Sunday will be nearer to normal in the 70s while the
southerly warm advection on Monday will help temps increase into
the upper 70s and 80s.

Tuesday - Friday:
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry with another frontal
boundary moving through the area early Wednesday being pushed by a
strong upper disturbance moving north of the area. This frontal
passage is expected to be dry.

With southwesterly flow persisting, surface high pressure again
quickly moves off to the east-northeast Thursday and southerly
flow returns. There are some small chances for preciptiation, but
confidence in any one period is low.

Highs will be the warmest on Tuesday, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s before decreasing through the remainder of the week into
the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

SHRAs and TSRAs are expected to continue to develop and track
northeast through the mid evening hours...with a few possibly
resulting in MVFR or lower conditions at either terminal. Given
the uncertainty involved with thunderstorms...opted to instead
include a VCTS at both terminals for the next several hours.
Overnight...expect winds to diminish ahead of a cold front which
should cross the terminals during the early morning
hours...bringing a wind shift as well as prevailing MVFR cigs for
much of the day Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
162100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
353 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight as a
frontal
boundary moves through the region. The best chances for strong to
severe storms will be in south central Nebraska. These storms
could produce hail to quarter size and winds to 60 mph.

Strong winds and low relative humidity values are causing near
critical fire weather conditions across Gosper and Furnas
counties in Nebraska and Phillips county in Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms along the frontal boundary
Saturday across eastern portions of the area...mainly east of
Highway 81. Some of these storms could be strong with small hail
and winds.

Otherwise, there are thunderstorm chances throughout the extended
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 NNW OVERTON           40.75N 99.54W
09/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED HAIL A BIT BIGGER THAN
            QUARTERS.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             OVERTON                 40.74N 99.54W
09/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MANGELS