Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Plenty of instability with dewpoints in the mid 60s across the
local area this afternoon. As the CAP now has mostly eroded...we
are starting to see some convective development across the
northwestern portions of the area. Models are indicating most of
this line will try to dissipate over the next hour or two...with
the focus shifting northeast...but given the atmospheric
profile...remain a bit uncertain on how things will actually
evolve. For the time being...will maintain the chance for
thunderstorms spreading from west to east from the late afternoon
through early evening hours...with the potential for some of these
storms to reach severe limits. Given the instability and shear
values in model soundings...if severe storms do initiate... expect
golf ball sized hail and strong wind gusts to be the main
concerns. This activity should be fairly progressive...and expect
most of the action to be east of the local are by mid evening.

Overnight...expect a fairly strong cold front to race south
across the local area reaching the NE/KS state line near 12Z.
Behind this front...expect significantly cooler temperatures
across the area tomorrow afternoon...along with breezy north
winds and adjusted the forecast accordingly. While there will be
some showers around behind the front...cannot completely rule out
an isolated thunderstorm or two given a few hundred joules of
CAPE...so went ahead and re-introduced isolated storms to the
forecast for the late afternoon/evening hours. If thunderstorms do
develop...however...they will not be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Small chances for showers or thunderstorms will exist into the
evening hours Saturday behind the aforementioned cold front. With
continued north winds and cool air advection on Sunday...expect a
very nice and seasonably cool afternoon...with highs possible
falling just shy of 80 degrees across the majority of the local
area along with northwest breezes.

Dry and seasonably warm weather is then expected through at least
Tuesday afternoon...as high pressure builds back across the
intermountain west. Later in the week...expect the upper level
ridge to being to break down with the upper flow becoming a bit
more zonal...bringing multiple small and spotty chances for
thunderstorms back to the local area Tuesday night through at
least Thursday. Temperatures over this time period are a bit in
question with quite a spread between guidance...but given short
term concerns...did not alter from the blended guidance generated
this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. Expect
a passing TSRA at KGRI to continue to push east over the next
hour or so...with an abrupt shift in winds behind a surface cold
front expected around 17/02Z. While there will be a brief surge in
northerly winds behind this front...expect winds to eventually
decouple later in the evening...becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds will then increase as the atmosphere begins
mixing some in the late morning hours...with breezy northwesterly
winds expected at both terminals by afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
172015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees this afternoon across
much of north central Kansas. In addition...thunderstorms are
possible across most of the outlook area this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be severe. If severe storms do
develop...hail around the size of golf balls and wind gusts
around 60 mph will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a slight chance for spotty thunderstorm activity across
parts of the area Saturday afternoon and evening...and again next
Tuesday through Thursday. While strong or severe storms could
occur...confidence is not sufficient to determine any specific
threats at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 10 pm this
afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

NEZ082-083-162145-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FURNAS AND
NORTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edison, or 23 miles southwest of Holdrege, moving southeast at 50
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Orleans, Stamford and Edison.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4028 9989 4035 9990 4035 9938 4008 9938
      4018 9983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 295DEG 43KT 4026 9975

Moritz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

NEZ041-048-049-170000-
Merrick NE-Nance NE-Polk NE-
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NANCE...NORTHEASTERN
MERRICK AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Monroe, or 19 miles northwest of Columbus, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

Frequent lightning...nickel sized hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph
will be possible with this storm across the advised area through 7
PM CDT.

Locations impacted include...
Genoa, Osceola, Shelby and Silver Creek.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4116 9764 4152 9781 4153 9771 4140 9770
      4139 9760 4133 9760 4136 9752 4137 9745
      4139 9737 4116 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 334DEG 37KT 4157 9769

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

NEZ048-062-063-170015-
Merrick NE-Hamilton NE-Hall NE-
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON...
SOUTHWESTERN MERRICK AND EASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grand Island, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Island, Doniphan, Alda, Giltner and Phillips.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 308 and 332.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4076 9845 4104 9850 4104 9819 4077 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 250DEG 21KT 4090 9840

Rossi

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