Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Hastings, NE

339 
WWUS83 KGID 011728
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1128 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected This Afternoon...

.Despite relatively cool temperatures, the combination of a very 
dry airmass, gusty northwest winds, and dry vegetation will result
in critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon hours.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>084-020000-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0003.170301T1900Z-170302T0000Z/
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Furnas-Harlan-
Franklin-
1128 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005,
006, 007, 017, 018, 019, 082, 083 AND 084...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, 
  Fire Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 007 Jewell, 
  Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks, Fire Weather Zone 018 Osborne and 
  Fire Weather Zone 019 Mitchell. In Nebraska, Fire Weather Zone 
  082 Furnas, Fire Weather Zone 083 Harlan and Fire Weather Zone 
  084 Franklin.

* WINDS...From the northwest at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 
  35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Dropping to around 20 percent by mid-
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that occur will spread rapidly and be very 
  difficult to contain. Use caution if engaging in activities 
  that could start a fire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme
fire behavior.

&&

$$

Rossi

119 
WWUS83 KGID 012357
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
557 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017


KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>084-020100-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170302T0000Z/
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Furnas-Harlan-
Franklin-
557 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005, 006, 007,
017, 018, 019, 082, 083 AND 084...

The red flag warning will be allowed to expire at 6 pm. Wind
speeds have decreased this evening and relative humidity values 
will rise as temperatures cool.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A weak system continues to impact the area providing some lifting
but having very limited moisture to work with. Thus, while there
are some returns on radar, none are reported to be reaching the
ground. As a result have backed precipitation chances down for the
afternoon and evening. Still could be a sprinkle and a flurry
after dark, but not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

Skies will clear overnight as subsidence settles over the area.
Other than some gusty northwest winds tomorrow, nothing to
exciting to write home about...other than fire weather concerns
(discussed in Fire Weather section).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Zonal flow regime becoming the prominent weather pattern through
the period. Thus mild and dry weather expected. The only chance
of precipitation is a slight chance of an afternoon shower over
the northern parts of the area on Sunday afternoon. Max temps
pushing into the 70s over weekend and in the 60s most other days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

General overview:
Especially beyond these first 4-6 hours, confidence is fairly high
in VFR ceiling. Confidence is high in VFR visibility the entire
period. The main issue will be fairly strong northwest winds
during the heart of the day. Now going into a bit more element
specific detail...

Ceiling:
While KEAR carries fairly confidence in VFR throughout, KGRI could
be brushed by the far southwest edges of an area of MVFR stratus
rotating southeast through eastern Nebraska. Therefore will carry
a TEMPO group to cover this possibility early this morning.
Otherwise, there could be at least a scattered low-end VFR cloud
field develop during the afternoon, but this is currently not
expected to breach MVFR thresholds.

Winds:
This should be the main aviation issue. Early this morning,
generally west-northwest speeds only around 10kt will persist.
However, especially between 17-23z there will be marked increase
with sustained speeds 20-25kt and gust potential at least 30kt.
During the evening speeds will decrease considerably and turn more
southwesterly with time. Any possible low level wind shear (LLWS)
during the period is expected to remain below mentionable
criteria (meaning less than 30kt of shear magnitude).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The southwest corner of the area including Phillips, Rooks,
Osborne and Smith Counties in Kansas will be experiencing near
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday afternoon. Relative
humidities (RH) are forecast to be in the 15% to 20% range in the
late afternoon. Strong northwest winds gusting to near 25 mph are
also expected at that same time so any fires may display extreme
behavior. Considered a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday
afternoon, but after discussions with the surrounding offices will
hold off for now.

RHs are forecast to remain very dry in the afternoons Thursday
through Sunday over that same area, but winds are forecast to be
much lighter. So, we will have to continue monitoring fire weather
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Eddy
LONG TERM...Eddy
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Eddy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
227 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
012030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
227 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The combination of gusty northwest winds, low humidity, and dry
fuels will result in at least near-critical, and perhaps even
critical, fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon along and
southwest of a line from Elwood to Superior Nebraska, and
including all of north central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings