Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Hastings, NE

341 
WWUS83 KGID 091641
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

...Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon...

KSZ005-006-017-018-100000-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0010.170409T2000Z-170410T0000Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-
1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 005, 006, 017 AND 018...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 005 Phillips, 
  Fire Weather Zone 006 Smith, Fire Weather Zone 017 Rooks and 
  Fire Weather Zone 018 Osborne.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that occur will spread rapidly and be 
  difficult to contain. Use caution if engaging in activities 
  that could ignite a fire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

928 
WWUS83 KGID 100010
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
710 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

...Red Flag Warning for North Central Kansas Expired...

KSZ005-006-017-018-100115-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170410T0000Z/
Phillips-Smith-Rooks-Osborne-
710 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005, 006, 017 AND 018...

Gusty northwest winds will continue into the evening, but 
relative humidity values have increased to 40 to 50 percent. 
Therefore the red flag warning has been allowed to expire. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Cirrus clouds have kept temperatures much cooler than forecasted
today. Most locations will struggle to reach 80 degrees this
afternoon. Expect scattered clouds to hang around the rest of the
afternoon and evening.

Tonight a cold front will push through the area, shifting winds to
the northwest. Ahead of this feature, a few showers or even an
isolated thunderstorm isn't completely out of the question near the
northern and western fringe of our CWA this evening, but short-term
models keep all activity just outside of our CWA. Therefore, I left
the forecast dry for this evening and overnight.

There are two forecast concerns for tomorrow. The first of these is
the threat for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Models are divided
on this potential, with the NAM-NEST and the ECMWF are particularly
indicative of thunderstorms ahead of a shortwave moving into the
Nebraska panhandle. The GFS and to some extent the NAM are more
reserved on this potential, so I opted to keep the chance PoPs in
the forecast. If thunderstorms develop, there is a chance that
some of them could be strong. While the best threat will almost
definitely be east of the CWA, the NAM indicates a small corridor
of 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated CAPE along with 30-40kt of bulk
shear.

The other concern for tomorrow is the threat for critical fire
weather conditions. As mentioned by the previous shift, dewpoints
will fall significantly tomorrow afternoon with gusty west winds.
Still some uncertainty with this potential, especially with
showers/storms in the forecast, so will continue to advertise near-
critical conditions in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

A few showers may linger across far northern parts of the area
Monday morning, but otherwise dry conditions are expected for Monday
and Tuesday. Lows Monday night will dip into the low 30s, but I will
hold off on putting any mention of frost/freeze in the grids for
now> I'd like to see some consistency on this trend since it would
be the first frost/freeze headline of the year.

Wednesday through the end of the week will be dominated by zonal
flow with a few shortwaves that will give us daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday. While none
of these are expected to be big systems, it appears that the best
chances for rain/storms will be on Wednesday and again on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Cirrus will linger through much of the period, but decrease some
later in the period. A surface low will move through the area this
morning and during the later afternoon and evening a cold front
will move through and winds will increase behind the front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
early evening across south central Nebraska and far northern
Kansas. If thunderstorms do develop, there is the potential that
some could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday
afternoon, mainly southwest of a line from Lexington, Nebraska to
Beloit, Kansas.

Chances for thunderstorms return on Wednesday, with daily chances
continuing through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Mangels