Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Early this morning, one round of showers/storms has finally pushed
off to the east of the CWA, another one has developed across our
southern half. The main feature of interest through the short
term, an upper level low pressure system, is shown by satellite
data to be currently spinning over the CO/KS border. At the
surface, similar to last night, convection moving through had made
the wind field a bit messy and even at 3 am winds are
light/variable for much of the CWA, but the main area of low
pressure currently sits over swrn KS, with a trough axis/cool
front extending to the northeast through the area. Temps at 3AM
are in the lower/mid 50s.

The general story for this short term period today/tonight really
hasn't changed much. Models continue to show the main upper low
sliding northeast through day, centered roughly over the
southeastern third of the CWA by 18Z, and to the northern NE/IA
border area by evening. The surface low looks to take a similar
path. Models showing precipitation expanding in coverage this
morning as lift continues to increase with the upper low moving
in, pushing north with time. Kept the mention of thunder going
CWA, SPC meso page showing some MUCAPE around, and models in
pretty good agreement keeping it around (though to varying
degrees). A little more uncertainty arises this afternoon, as the
timing of the upper/sfc low is crucial to severe weather chances
for our CWA. At this time, it appears that while chances across
our eastern areas are non-zero, the better chances should be to
our east, in areas that will have a shot at better destabilization
before the low gets there. If things had even been 3 hrs slower
than currently expected to play out today, severe weather this
afternoon would have been a bigger concern for more of our CWA.
Will see how things evolve through the day. This evening, do have
some lingering showers across the north, little/if any instability
is expected to be in the area. Continued to keep the 06-12Z
period dry, as upper level shortwave ridging between systems
builds into the area.

Confidence in highs today is not high. The amount of precip/sky
cover and with the passing sfc low/front looks to keep the NNW in
the mid 60s for highs, further south there is the potential for
more sun and warming a bit, and have highs in the lower/mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

An upper level low is expected to affect the forecast area
Thursday through Saturday. The low will move out of the Rockies
Thursday and finally move to the northeast on Saturday. The
surface low moves from the southern high plains through the area
and to the northeast.

Thursday morning should remain dry since the low is still far
enough away, but during the afternoon, there could be some
showers and thunderstorms that move into the western part of the
forecast area. During the evening, the showers and thunderstorms
should spread across the forecast area. There is some MUCAPE with
the system, but most of it is further south. All of the models
have fairly decent QPF across the area through the night.

By Friday morning the CAPE is gone but there will be showers
across the area. During the afternoon the CAPE returns and have
thunderstorms across the area. The thunderstorms continue into
Friday night. Saturday, the upper low is finally moving to the
northeast and the showers should come to an end.

A surface high pressure system will settle into the area for
Saturday night into Sunday and there should be a break in the
precipitation through Sunday evening.

The next upper level wave will affect the area late Sunday night
through Tuesday. Most of the time there will be showers, but there
is a little instability Monday afternoon and evening to set off a
few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The main upper level low pressure system will cross northeast
through the area today, bringing continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms to both terminal sites. Precipitation may come in
waves, but pinning down the exact timing is difficult, and have
SHRA mention going through the afternoon with VCTS. Precipitation
should move out of the area early this evening. It's a messy
surface pattern early this morning with variable wind directions,
something that is expected to continue at least through part of
the morning. Once the main sfc low passes to the east, more
northwesterly wind will develop, and gusts near 25 MPH will be
possible through the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
450 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
450 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

This morning, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage
across the outlook area. There will be the potential for some
thunderstorms to be strong, with small hail and gusty winds the
primary hazards.

This afternoon, thunderstorm chances continue, and there is a
chance that a few may become severe. The best chance for severe
thunderstorms looks to be east of Highway 281. The primary
hazards would be hail near the size of quarters and wind gusts
near 60 MPH, though an isolated tornado is not completely out of
the question.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and overnight for
most of the outlook area. Along and south of Interstate 80, some
of the thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

There could be a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening
and again Monday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon for areas east of
Highway 281.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     HAIL             HUNTER                  39.24N 98.40W
05/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

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