Special Weather Statement, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1244 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...

Synoptic setup: A large area of hot high pressure resides over
the southwestern quarter of the CONUS. A ridge spur runs north of
this through eastern Wyoming and Montana. A weak trough runs down
the coastline from British Columbia to northern Oregon. Zonal to
southwest flow resides between thes two features over western and
central Montana where a jet streak is evident on water vapor.

This afternoon through this evening: Near the surface a lee side
mountain trough has set up over eastern Montana and is low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan. This low is being
driven by the jet aloft and kicking the aloft ridge into the
Dakotas. This in turn is destabilizing the atmosphere to the west
where showers and thunderstorms have already developed. A couple
showers and thunderstorms developed across northeastern zones but
should be out of the area by roughly 130PM. The next batch are
anticipated to arrive around 4 to 6 PM along the southwestern
zones. As showers and thunderstorms exit the mountains for this
warm dry sector... downburst winds are expected to form which may
become damaging at times across Petroleum and Garfield counties.

Tuesday: Showers are expected to taper down and travel across
mostly southern zones through the early morning hours leaving a
few showers across eastern zones. Some new isolated showers
activity may drop down on a weak backdoor front during the
afternoon hours.

GAH

.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Shortwave trough moves to the east Tuesday Night. A slight chance
of showers could linger into the evening.

Although the ridge rebounds on Wednesday, a weak wave in the
afternoon and evening could bring a slight chance of thunderstorms
to parts of the region. Meanwhile, somewhat cooler temperatures
will linger. The heat returns on Thursday as the ridge continues
to build back into Montana and widespread highs in the 90s return.

The ridge becomes stronger on Friday and remains in place on
Saturday with hot and dry weather. Highs will be near 100 in many
areas.

Models differ Sunday and Monday. GFS keeps strong ridge in place
while the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough across the Canadian
Prairies that flattens the ridge and bring a weak cold front. Will
maintain a hot and dry forecast for now. Forrester

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: There will be mid and high level clouds and
thunderstorms ahead of a front that will move through Northeast
Montana this afternoon and evening.

SVR THUNDERSTORMS: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight have the potential for downburst winds that could briefly
exceed 50 kts along with hail.

HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE: With temperatures in the upper 90s today
in some places takeoffs may need longer distance.

WIND: South to west at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon... becoming
west around 10 kts tonight... veering to the northwest at 10 to 15
kts Tuesday.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for MTZ134>137.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
335 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

MTZ016>027-059>062-110800-
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Petroleum-Garfield-McCone-
Richland-Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux-Northern Phillips-
Southwest Phillips-Northern Valley-Eastern Roosevelt-
335 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Montana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon until 11 PM today due to
the combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds, and
lightning from dry thunderstorms for zones 134, 135, 136, and 137.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. A few storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to near 100 return on
Thursday and will continue through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
428 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW SAND SPRINGS       47.08N 107.52W
07/10/2017  M57.00 MPH       GARFIELD           MT   MESONET

            LUFBOROUGH HILL MONTANA DOT WEATHER STATION ON MT-200
            REPORTS A 57 MPH WIND GUST.

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW WINNETT            47.01N 108.36W
07/10/2017  M54.00 MPH       PETROLEUM          MT   MESONET

            NWS HANDAR AT WINNETT MT REPORTS A 54 MPH WIND GUST.

0408 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE DEVILS CRK REC ARE 47.56N 107.53W
07/10/2017  M68.00 MPH       GARFIELD           MT   MESONET

            SOUTH SAWMILL CREEK BLM RAWS STATION REPORTS A 68 MPH
            WIND GUST.

&&

PROTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
429 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

MTZ016-017-022-059-061-102330-
Garfield MT-Central and Southeast Phillips MT-Northern Valley MT-
Northern Phillips MT-Central and Southern Valley MT-
429 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...
NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
MDT...

At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong winds along a
thunderstorm gust front along a line extending from 6 miles
northwest of Saco to 26 miles southwest of Tampico to 21 miles west
of The Pines Rec Area to 8 miles northwest of Hell Creek Rec Area to
6 miles southeast of Jordan.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jordan, Saco, The Pines Rec Area, Hell Creek Rec Area, Tampico,
Hinsdale, Vandalia and The Bentonite Plant.

LAT...LON 4858 10688 4831 10678 4803 10660 4731 10638
      4710 10690 4765 10705 4793 10723 4857 10751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 218DEG 17KT 4853 10741 4800 10716 4786 10708
4772 10698 4724 10685

AEH

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