Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1020 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Updated for Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Thu...

Sent an update this morning to reflect the latest thinking based
on near and short term model consensus. Expecting mostly sunny
skies this morning to become partly cloudy as Pacific moisture
streams up and around the high pressure ridge currently over the
region. Winds will be light or calm early, then increase from the
south around 10 to 12 mph. A very nice day leading up to a very
windy change in the weather by tomorrow.

BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: Warm and dry weather conditions
are expected for today as an upper level ridge advances across the
region with rising heights. Overall expect highs to reach well
into the 70s by late this afternoon along with an abundance in
sunshine.

The ridge axis will shift downstream of the CWA as the next low
pressure system approaches from the west on Wednesday. This system
will push a cold front through the area with a chance for showers
and general thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. Tight
pressure gradient with this storm system also supports gusty west
winds developing which will cause hazardous boating conditions on
Fort Peck Lake. Do expect a Lake Wind Advisory will be issued at
some point to cover associated impacts. Questions exist with
regard to winds across Phillips County. Will they be very strong
and gusty in nature or will they reach high wind criteria. The 00z
NAM solution is a little further north with the storm track, but
the latest GFS still supports near high winds for especially the
usually windy locations such as the Malta South DOT site. Given
these arguments will let the High Wind Watch ride and future
shifts can decide on the upgrade.

Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

Main feature for midweek on continues to be a strong upper low
swinging across western Canada. By Wednesday night all the models
have the stacked low over southern Saskatchewan with precipitation
wrapping around into the northern zones. Strong winds are also
expected on Thursday with the tight gradient as the low moves
toward Manitoba. Lake Wind Advisory is likely for Fort Peck Lake
with some potential for winds reaching High Wind criteria.

Remainder of the forecast period will feature northwest flow
between upper ridge building over the west coast states and upper
trof settling over the Great Lakes. Slightly unstable flow will
produce the occasional shower. The best chance for rain is
expected on Sunday with a stronger shortwave sliding into the
Great Lakes trof.

Ebert

&&

.AVIATION...

Flight Category:

VFR

Synopsis: High pressure will be over the region today...followed
by a deep low pressure system along the front range of the
Canadian an northern rockies. Today forecast winds from the south
at 5 to 15 kts. SE winds increasing overnight into 10 to 20 kts
range with gusts to 25kts...then SE TO SW winds in the morning
increase to 15 to 30kts with gusts from 30 to 45 kts.

TC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Northern Phillips...
Southwest Phillips.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
315 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

MTZ016-017-021>023-059-060-240915-
Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Petroleum-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips-
315 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Montana.

* Hazard: Strong and potentially damaging winds are possible across
  Phillips County. Gusty winds are also expected across Fort Peck
  Lake, leading to boating concerns.

* Timing: Wednesday morning through early evening.

* Wind: West winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph are
  expected across Phillips County. Winds across the Fort Peck Lake
  area will range from 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

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