Tornado Warning 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

467 
WWUS54 KFWD 161015
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
415 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

TXC289-161024-
/O.EXP.KFWD.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170116T1015Z/
Leon TX-
415 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LEON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
415 AM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe limits
and exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will be allowed to
expire.

LAT...LON 3133 9578 3139 9582 3146 9573 3146 9572
      3145 9571 3143 9571 3141 9570 3140 9570
      3139 9569 3138 9569 3137 9567 3136 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 241DEG 32KT 3150 9553 

$$

JLDunn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
347 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain and thunderstorms continue to push to the east early this
morning as the upper low responsible for last night's round of
severe storms and flooding ejects northeastward into the Central
Plains. Where skies cleared out behind the line of storms, patchy
fog (some dense) has formed mostly along/west of I-35. Expect
visibilities to remain less than a mile and occasionally less than
1/4 mile in this area, and have gone with a Dense Fog Advisory
through 9am. The advisory may need to be expanded farther east if
conditions begin to deteriorate.

Showers and storms will linger across our southeastern counties
today where a moisture gradient and weak surface convergence will
remain. Additional showers and storms may develop in this area
later this afternoon, but a lack of strong large-scale ascent as
well as limited instability should limit any storm's intensity.
In the meantime, drier air will be slowly filtering in from the
west across the rest of North and Central TX with light westerly
surface winds. Later today and tonight, a cold front (currently
positioned roughly from OKC southwestward through the TX
Panhandle) will move through the area. Winds will become
northwesterly which will advect in cooler air overnight dropping
temperatures 5-15 degrees for Tuesday.

The aforementioned cold front will stall across south TX on
Tuesday with a deepening upper low taking shape to our west. As
this low intensifies and moves toward the region Tuesday night,
isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will result in showers and
isolated storms developing across much of Central TX. Have
continued an upward trend in PoPs during the middle of the week
as guidance continues to advertise a higher potential for rain and
a few thunderstorms. With this activity being elevated above a
cooler surface layer well north of the stalled front, severe
storms are not expected. In fact, due to very limited instability,
activity may consist more of widespread showers without much
thunder. The highest rain chances will be on Wednesday with the
highest PoPs confined to Central TX through the middle of the
week.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin tapering off from west to
east on Thursday as the upper low begins shifting northward,
pulling the stationary front back north as a warm front.
Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer as south
flow resumes and some clearing skies allow for increased heating.
It appears our forecast area will be situated on the subsident
side of the departing shortwave during this time which implies
most of the thunderstorm potential will be shifting east of the
area for the rest of Thursday.

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the weekend, although
it does appear an active pattern will still send numerous
disturbances through the area into early next week. We should be
between systems on Friday with above normal temperatures
continuing. Guidance is suggesting another shortwave will be
digging southward through the Central Plains during this time
which would affect our weather for the upcoming weekend. This
shortwave would be capable of generating a deep surface low to
our north on Saturday/Sunday leading to additional chances for
thunderstorms across parts of East TX.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/
/06Z TAFs/

Metroplex airports--The rain is ending from west to east across
the Metroplex, and should be east of KDAL by 07-08Z. Light and
variable winds will become more westerly overnight. VFR cigs will
become clear in a few hours and there's a decent potential light
fog will develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will be keeping a close eye on this potential and for
now will indicate a 2SM from 09-16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected but there may be a few low clouds as a front moves
through the region later today. The winds will shift to the
northwest late this afternoon with this front.

Waco airport--Showers and thunderstorms will continue near the
airport through 08-09Z. As the ceilings clear in a few hours,
light fog may develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will carry a 2SM from 10-16Z but keep a close eye on
this development during the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. The winds will become westerly overnight
and then become northwesterly late Monday afternoon as a front
moves through the region. There may be a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorm near the front in the afternoon hours but at
this time the best rain potential is southeast of the airport.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  43  56  45  58 /  10   0  10  40  30
Waco                69  47  55  44  59 /  10  10  40  60  40
Paris               64  43  56  44  57 /  50  10   5  40  30
Denton              62  40  55  39  57 /  10   0  10  40  30
McKinney            63  42  56  42  58 /  20   0  10  40  30
Dallas              66  44  56  47  59 /  10   0  10  40  30
Terrell             67  45  57  44  59 /  30  10  20  50  30
Corsicana           67  48  57  47  59 /  40  10  40  60  40
Temple              68  48  55  45  59 /  20  10  60  60  50
Mineral Wells       62  39  55  40  58 /   5   0  10  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ091-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.

&&

82/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1104 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A SHERMAN TO GRANBURY TO LAMPASAS LINE. A FEW STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...BUT OVERALL THIS THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO SHERMAN LINE. VISIBILITY MAY FALL INTO
THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY...THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

24-BAIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1133 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ159-160615-
McLennan TX-
1133 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCLENNAN COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM
CST...

At 1132 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McGregor, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Bellmead, Woodway, Lacy-Lakeview, McGregor,
West, Mart, Beverly Hills, Lorena, Bruceville-Eddy, Moody, Riesel,
Crawford, Golinda, Hallsburg, Northcrest, Gholson and Leroy.

LAT...LON 3132 9742 3159 9760 3186 9704 3152 9680
      3124 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 225DEG 31KT 3143 9746

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1154 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ122-135-146>148-160700-
Van Zandt TX-Anderson TX-Freestone TX-Henderson TX-Navarro TX-
1154 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREESTONE...VAN ZANDT...
HENDERSON...ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM
CST...

At 1153 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Golden to near Teague.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Canton, Teague, Fairfield, Grand
Saline, Chandler, Van, Malakoff, Edgewood, Elkhart, Frankston,
Wortham, Brownsboro, Eustace, Berryville, Trinidad, Fruitvale and
Edom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 9573 3153 9576 3156 9571 3165 9574
      3160 9576 3162 9579 3141 9623 3180 9650
      3190 9629 3279 9587 3277 9577 3269 9560
      3248 9560 3235 9545 3223 9549 3208 9542
      3185 9545 3168 9528 3161 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 241DEG 48KT 3283 9557 3171 9631

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

TXZ122-135-160745-
Van Zandt TX-Henderson TX-
1257 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CST...

At 1256 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Edom to 11 miles south of Athens. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Chandler, Brownsboro, Berryville, Edom, Coffee City,
Murchison, Poynor and Moore Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 9601 3235 9590 3250 9560 3248 9560
      3235 9545 3233 9546 3228 9545 3223 9549
      3218 9546 3215 9548 3209 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 236DEG 23KT 3235 9570 3204 9587

JLDUNN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

TXZ174-175-160745-
Robertson TX-Milam TX-
119 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILAM COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM CST...

At 118 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cameron to 6 miles west of Tanglewood.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rockdale, Cameron and Milano.

LAT...LON 3088 9711 3111 9681 3074 9661 3047 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 221DEG 47KT 3085 9706 3050 9710

jldUNN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

TXZ175-160845-
Robertson TX-
210 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTY UNTIL
245 AM CST...

At 210 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bremond, or 17 miles north of Hearne, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bremond.

LAT...LON 3114 9674 3134 9635 3135 9632 3130 9632
      3130 9633 3129 9633 3127 9631 3125 9633
      3123 9631 3122 9632 3117 9630 3114 9630
      3104 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 229DEG 38KT 3112 9661

JLDunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
243 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

TXZ146-147-161-160915-
Limestone TX-Freestone TX-Navarro TX-
243 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FREESTONE...NORTH
CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND SOUTHEASTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
CST...

At 243 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mexia, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mexia, Fairfield, Wortham, Angus, Navarro, Mildred, Eureka,
Tehuacana, Richland, Streetman and Kirvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 9611 3162 9657 3182 9665 3206 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 241DEG 34KT 3171 9651

JLDunn