Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level trof extending from southwest Missouri into southwest
Texas will bisect the area into Thursday. Upper ridge centered
over the western U.S. will begin to expand eastward forcing the
trof to the east as the week progresses. This will result in a
pattern change as the chances for nocturnal thunderstorms will be
decreasing.

With the upper trof overhead along with weak diffluence aloft...a
weak convergence area approximately along the I-20 corridor and
plenty of heating and instability...scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and into this evening. Short-term models
are rather bullish with overall coverage particularly along and
south of I-20. Without a good forcing mechanism...30 pops should
suffice into this evening. Overall severe threat is low...but as
is typical this time of year gusty winds and small hail will be
possible in some of the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible as PWs are approaching 2 inches and movement of
storms will be rather slow.

Short-term models not near as bullish as what they have been the
last several nights as far as developing an overnight MCS.
Shortwave not evident in the water vapor so do have lower pops
tonight than has been the case for the last few nights.

As mentioned for Thursday, the upper level ridge to our west will
start to build into the region, pushing the upper level trough
eastward and creating a deformation zone across the region.
Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible across mainly the southern half of the region. Threat
for severe weather looks minimal at this time as deep layer wind
shear will be weak and the storms will be fighting increasing dry
air in the mid and upper levels, but any showers or storms may be
capable of producing gusty winds.

Center of upper high will continue to slowly expand eastward into
the weekend though the center will remain to our west. Chances of
precip will gradually decrease though isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will still be possible mainly across the eastern and
southern counties as abundant moisture combines with daytime
heating. Though daytime highs will be on the increase...with the
upper high anchored to our west the hottest temperatures will also
stay to our west. Highs will be close to normal for this year with
afternoon temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s.

Wiley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 101 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/
VFR through Thursday afternoon with few to scattered CU between
3000 and 5000 ft during the daytime and scattered to broken mid/high
clouds through the TAF period.

The only aviation weather concern will be the potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The morning storm
complex dissipated before midday and left behind a weak cold pool
which should limit activity across the Metroplex TAF sites this
afternoon. Waco will have a better chance of storms late this
afternoon and this evening, but with a lack of focused dynamics
activity should remain scattered at best. There will be a potential
for more storms overnight with weak diffluent northerly flow
aloft and abundant moisture. Again, coverage will be limited so
will not include in this TAF package.

A south to southeast wind will continue at speeds generally less
than 12 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  76  95  77 /  30  20  10  10   5
Waco                76  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  10
Paris               72  90  72  91  74 /  30  20   5  10   5
Denton              73  92  74  94  75 /  30  10   5   5   5
McKinney            73  91  74  94  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
Dallas              76  93  77  95  77 /  30  20  10  10   5
Terrell             73  92  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
Corsicana           75  93  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  20  10
Temple              75  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  72  95  73 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight with the best
chances generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor
through this evening. Widespread severe storms are unlikely,
but some storms may contain gusty winds and small hail along with
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
and Friday mainly south of Interstate 20. Gusty winds and brief
heavy rain will be the primary hazards.

Isolated storms are possible across the region Saturday and Sunday
and across the eastern third of North and Central Texas Monday and
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening
mainly south of the I-20 corridor.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
459 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TXZ118-052230-
Tarrant TX-
459 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keller, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Keller, Hurst, Southlake,
Watauga, Colleyville, North Richland Hills, Roanoke and Westlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9704 3289 9703 3284 9722 3294 9731
      3299 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 244DEG 9KT 3292 9720

58

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TXZ118-052300-
Tarrant TX-
527 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Watauga. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller, Hurst,
Southlake, Watauga, Colleyville, Richland Hills, North Richland
Hills, Haslet and Westlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 9703 3283 9704 3280 9730 3295 9733
      3297 9722 3299 9709 3298 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 249DEG 4KT 3290 9726

58

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TXZ118-052330-
Tarrant TX-
601 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
Lakeside to Blue Mound to Colleyville. Movement was nearly
stationary..

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Arlington, Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller,
Hurst, Southlake, Watauga, Colleyville, Benbrook, Saginaw, White
Settlement, Azle, Richland Hills, River Oaks, Sansom Park, Lake
Worth, Eagle Mountain and North Richland Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9711 3272 9718 3270 9755 3286 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 250DEG 5KT 3279 9740

58

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

TXZ118-052345-
Tarrant TX-
613 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eagle Mountain. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Azle, Eagle Mountain, Briar, Pecan Acres, Pelican Bay, Haslet and
Newark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Eagle Mountain Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 9734 3292 9732 3285 9755 3299 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 223DEG 0KT 3289 9748

58