Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

232 
WWUS54 KFWD 270252
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
952 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

TXC097-121-270300-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-170327T0315Z/
Denton TX-Cooke TX-
952 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DENTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area, therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3340 9648 3326 9649 3338 9684 3340 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 253DEG 22KT 3342 9664 

$$

TXC085-270315-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-170327T0315Z/
Collin TX-
952 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY...

At 950 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Van Alstyne, or
13 miles south of Sherman, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3340 9648 3326 9649 3338 9684 3340 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 253DEG 22KT 3342 9664 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Stalley

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
817 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.AVIATION...
The Metroplex TAF sites have been in the gap so far with storms
sliding just to the northwest and north while other cells between
KCPT and KBBD have been remaining to the south. Will have to keep
an eye on the storms to the south but they will likely remain
south of the Metroplex TAF sites. MVFR ceilings will try to
spread north into the Metroplex overnight tonight...after the
convection to the south moves east. Have indicated BKN012
starting at 06z and down to IFR (BKN008) from 09z-13z. A cold
front should move through around 13z with ceiling then improving
to MVFR and then to VFR by 16z.

Waco...will keep an eye on the storms to the west and will likely
have to add VCTS in for the 02-04z period. Otherwise, expect
IFR ceilings to spread north in the site around 04z and IFR
ceilings by 08z. A cold front will move through around 17z
with steadying improving ceilings thereafter.

58

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Numerous strong/severe supercellular storms are in progress as of
6pm west of I-35. Hail has been the main concern with these
storms thus far due to their high bases (5-6 kft) and the
favorable hail environment discussed in the previous Mesoscale
Update. These storms developed along the leading edge of the
dryline along a higher theta-e axis where slightly more favorable
low-level moisture resides. As these storms continue to shift
eastward toward I-35, they will encounter a more favorable
environment with MLCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg and more
moderate low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 60s.
Now that peak heating has passed, boundary layer mixing is
lessening and boundary layer moisture should increase. Storms
should be capable of becoming surface- based rather than elevated
as this occurs. This will imply an increased tornado threat
compared to the initial thunderstorms given that LCLs will
decrease, although the main concern continues to be large hail.

As additional storms develop, as suggested by latest high-res
guidance, they may grow upscale into a complex with embedded
supercellular structures as they shift east of I-35. A Tornado
Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch cover North and parts of
Central Texas through 11pm. Continue to follow graphics, watches,
and warnings for the latest information.

-Stalley

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

See locally issued Mesoscale Update AFDFWD and regional SPC
SWOMCD discussions for short term updates through this evening.

For tonight after midnight most of the convection that occurs this
evening should be waning across our far eastern areas. A cold
front will eventually catch up to the dryline and push through the
remainder of the CWA through mid Monday morning. Drier air will
filter into the region through the day tomorrow with highs in the
mid/upper 70s and lower 80s. While the front will initially clear
the CWA, it is likely to quickly return northward as a warm front,
especially across West Texas late Monday night. This will mean a
gradual increase in moisture again across the southern half of the
CWA as southeasterly winds return.

By Tuesday, another powerful upper low will be moving out of New
Mexico and approaching Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will have spread
northward and should be in place across most of Texas. A dryline
will set up across West Texas with a warm front extending from the
surface low in the Panhandle southeast to along the Red River.
This will set up another favorable scenario for severe weather
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Initially, the more significant
threat will be to the west of our area, but will spread eastward
into the late evening hours. Our best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and will continue to be accompanied by a severe weather
threat.

In addition to a severe weather threat, deep southerly flow will
be in place Tuesday night into Wednesday morning accompanied by PW
values near record territory. This suggests that one or more
convective lines or clusters could train over localized areas
resulting in a flash flood threat. The entire system does appear
to be progressive enough to preclude a more serious hydrologic
threat at this time. Precipitation should end quickly from west to
east during the day Wednesday.

The upper pattern remains progressive through the weekend with yet
another system approaching by Saturday. At this time it is a
little early to tell if a significant severe threat will accompany
this system, but rain/storm chances appear to be increasing at
least for Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  79  59  81  66 /  70   0   0  20  70
Waco                63  81  64  82  66 /  50  10   5  20  70
Paris               61  76  54  77  63 /  60  10   0  20  50
Denton              56  77  56  78  65 /  70   0   0  20  70
McKinney            59  77  57  79  65 /  70   0   0  20  70
Dallas              61  80  60  81  67 /  70   0   0  20  70
Terrell             62  79  58  81  66 /  50  10   0  20  60
Corsicana           65  81  62  82  67 /  40  20   0  20  50
Temple              64  83  64  83  66 /  30  10   5  30  70
Mineral Wells       52  80  55  78  61 /  20   0   0  40  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

58/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
447 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
447 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon through
tonight across all of North and Central Texas. While only a few
storms are expected to develop, those that do form will likely become
severe. The main hazards are expected to be large hail and damaging
winds, although there is the potential for a few tornadoes north of
Interstate 20. The highest chances for thunderstorms and severe
weather will be along and north of Interstate 20 beginning after 4PM.
The severe weather threat is expected to diminish after midnight.

An elevated fire weather threat is expected to develop late this
afternoon west of a Jacksboro to Comanche line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few thunderstorms may linger Monday morning along and east of a
line from Paris to Athens to Cameron. Severe weather is not expected.

There are more thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday as
another storm system affects the region. Severe weather and
flooding will be possible with this mid-week system, in particular
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Some spotter activation is likely late this afternoon and evening,
with better chances for activation along and north of Interstate 20.

JLDunn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             MELISSA                 33.28N  96.58W
03/26/2017  E1.50 INCH       COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             PILOT POINT             33.40N  96.97W
03/26/2017  E1.50 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HAIL             3 W HILLSBORO           32.00N  97.18W
03/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       HILL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 22 WEST OF HILLSBORO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
925 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             DORCHESTER              33.53N  96.70W
03/26/2017  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     HAIL             2 SW MCKINNEY           33.18N  96.64W
03/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             MCKINNEY                33.20N  96.62W
03/26/2017  E2.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLFBALL TO SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN TENNIS BALL