Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The ongoing complex of convection which fired earlier just ahead
of a strong cold front, has--to this point--struggled to really
congeal into a line. Instead, two discrete severe storms have laid
down swaths of hail and sporadic wind damage just south of the
Metroplex. Stout large-scale forcing for ascent continues to
overspread the region, as evidenced by the presence of an implied
jet streak on moisture channel imagery. As this enhanced flow
impinges upon the southeastward moving cold front, effective bulk
shear values will finally begin to increase past 35-40 kts. Radar
and satellite trends reveal this improving flow is already
impacting storm structure, with mid-level rotation becoming more
evident on the storms across northern Limestone, Henderson, and
Anderson Counties. In addition, these storms are beginning to move
into an environment characterized by steeper low-level lapse rates
where temperatures have soared into the upper 80s to near 90
degrees. This combination is resulting in an area of DCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which is presently
along a Killeen to Waco to Athens line.

Thus, we anticipate the primary threat may be shifting towards
damaging winds, although the risk for large hail threat will
continue given the impressive mid-level lapse rates and improving
bulk shear. Finally, while the overall tornado threat remains LOW,
we continue to highlight an area bounded by a line from Palestine
to Mexia to Marquez. While low-level winds remain veered and weak,
the presence of 0-3km CAPE increasing to around 100-150 J/kg
across this area, combined with at least some limited Storm
Relative Helicity, means that we cannot rule out an isolated
tornado or two as this activity presses southeastward.

The good news is that the lingering severe weather threat will be
quickly coming to an end here, as the cold front will be exiting
our CWA by 6 PM. This will leave us will gusty northwest winds to
contend with this evening.

Breezy northwest winds will linger overnight, but the strong
gustiness will be subsiding around 7-8 PM. Anticipate a generally
dry overnight period, although we have added in low shower chances
near our Red River counties as the core of the parent upper-low
slides across Oklahoma. Even though mid-level temperatures will
cool with the approach of the low, meager lapse rates should
result in a notable lack of instability, limiting the thunder
potential with any overnight activity.

A fine stretch of weather looks to be in store through the
remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend, although
high temperatures will gradually start climbing into the 80s.
It'll be another cool morning on Friday as surface high pressure
moves in from the west. Clear skies and slackening northwest winds
will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s across our outlying
and more sheltered locations.

Southerly flow will return on Sunday as high pressure shifts east
of the region. Any more robust moisture return will be slow to
arrive, but dewpoints will gradually start inching past 60 degrees
by Tuesday. An approaching shortwave trough on Wednesday may bring
our next chance for storms to the region.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/
The cold front as of 1720Z stretches from a KSEP-KAFW-KGYI line,
demarcated nicely on visible satellite and as a fine line on area
radars. Initial convection has struggled to develop (save for a
lone storm which continues to track into Ellis County). We'll
continue to show VCTS through 19Z at AFW, GKY, DAL, and DFW where
there is still a brief window for additional convective
development before the cold front slices across all of our
Metroplex TAF sites. Behind the front, VFR conditions will prevail
along with strong and gusty northwest winds. It's possible that
gusts at DFW may briefly approach AWW criteria later this
afternoon, but this window would be quite brief, between 22-00Z or
so. Thankfully, the 330-350 direction should help to
substantially temper any crosswind issues at DFW.

Surface winds at Waco will continue to gradually veer ahead of the
approaching front. The northwest wind shift is expected to occur
between 20-21Z, and this has been added inside the TEMPO group for
TSRA.

Northwest winds will subside this evening, but will remain breezy
overnight before becoming gusty once again on Thursday afternoon.
At this time, it appears the better wrap-around moisture will
remain to the north of our TAF sites, and have continued with a
dry forecast for the time being. Some VFR cloud cover will,
however, be possible.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  72  51  77  55 /  10  10  10   0   0
Waco                50  74  47  78  50 /  10  10  10   0   0
Paris               47  69  48  72  48 /  10  10  10   0   0
Denton              49  72  46  75  48 /  10  10  10   0   0
McKinney            49  71  48  74  48 /  10  10  10   0   0
Dallas              52  73  53  78  56 /  10  10  10   0   0
Terrell             49  71  48  75  50 /  10  10  10   0   0
Corsicana           49  72  50  76  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
Temple              53  75  47  78  50 /  10  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       48  74  45  78  49 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>146-156>161.

&&

90/90

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
109 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
A strong cold front will continue to move through the region this
afternoon, and a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists
with the front. The greatest risk for severe weather exists south
and east of a Sulphur Springs to Greenville to Hamilton line. The
main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, although a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out mainly southeast of an Athens to
Mexia to Marquez line. Thunderstorms will exit the region from
northwest to southeast by early this evening.

Winds will become gusty out of the northwest following the passage
of the cold front, and a Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 PM to 8
PM north of a Killeen to Athens line. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will
be possible during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected today, mainly south and east of a
Sulphur Springs to Greenville to Hamilton line.

Carlaw

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             MEXIA                   31.68N  96.50W
05/03/2017  E1.75 INCH       LIMESTONE          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN MEXIA.