Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
614 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Severe thunderstorm watch #161 in effect from DFW and points
north-east through 1 pm CDT. Scattered strong to severe storms
already occurring from Bosque County, through Tarrant/Johnson
Co(s) this morning. Majority of the activity should move east of
the CWA by Noon-1 pm CDT.

05

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/
Breezy south winds will persist overnight with occasional gusts
to around 25 kts or so, and MVFR cigs will prevail at all sites. A
nocturnal bore feature can be seen entering the region on radar
imagery, and recent surface observations from KRPH indicate that a
northwest wind shift accompanies this feature. Should this
move across the Metroplex sites, any wind shift would be brief,
with a quick return to breezy southerly winds.

The main change from the 00Z TAFs was to introduce a mention of
VCTS at all Metroplex sites as it seems likely sufficient lifting
will occur to erode the lingering capping inversion as the main
cold front arrives. Waco looks to remain far enough removed from
the better forcing to preclude an explicit mention of thunder, but
have inserted a brief window of VCSH to account for southwestward
precip development. An abrupt northwest wind shift will accompany
the front, which should arrive between 13-14Z at western sites,
and 14-15Z across the eastern Metroplex sites and Waco.
Convective chances will quickly come to an end by 15-16Z as cooler
and drier air filters in. Cloud bases will then begin to rise,
eventually to VFR Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will then slacken as high pressure builds in overhead, and
airports will likely be able to return to south flow late
Wednesday evening. As winds go nearly calm, there is some
potential for a shallow layer of fog to materialize, but this
potential is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/
A busy day ahead as a strong surface cold front moving into the
Wichita Falls/Abilene areas moves toward the I-35 corridor
through sunrise this morning. The well-advertised, vigorous upper
trough responsible for severe weather across Eastern Oklahoma this
morning will continue to swing quickly east across the Southern
Plains today. A plume of surface dew points of 65-70 degrees was
surging northward just ahead of the cold front and north up
through the I-35 corridor and points east. This is maintaining
good surface instability despite the non-favorable time of day. In
addition, very strong large-scale ascent will arrive by/after
sunrise to help lift/moisten the modest EML/capping inversion
through mid morning. This should allow for a broken line of strong
to severe storms to develop along or just east of I-35 after 6-7
am CDT, then move east with the cold front through the morning
hours, before exiting our far eastern counties early-mid
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 deg/C and
40-50 knot southwest effective shear will likely result in severe
storms across especially the eastern third of the CWA. Large hail,
damaging winds, and frequent lighting will be the primary
hazards. Though the tornado threat is non-zero, 0-1km winds and
shear are already veering southwesterly as well with the more
significant threat for tornadoes to be east/northeast of our area
later today.

In addition to the severe weather threat with the cold front,
strong CAA for this late in the season and a very dynamic, strong
pressure gradient will likely result in windy conditions with
very gusty west-northwest winds 20 to 25 mph, with a few gusts
between 35 to 40 mph during the afternoon hours. Winds should
rapidly decouple after dark with surface high pressure settling in
quickly for the overnight. Lows Thursday morning will range from
the lower 40s along the Red River to around 50 degrees within
immediate urban areas and across Central Texas. Downright chilly
for the last week of April! Dry near zonal or dampened cyclonic
flow aloft will result in mostly sunny skies Thursday, as a return
of south breezes and low WAA allow for a range of high
temperatures of 75-80 degrees in the east, to 85-90 degrees in the
west. It will be fairly breezy again during the afternoon hours
and lasting into Thursday night.

Gulf moisture returns rapidly northward Thursday night and Friday
morning, as a surface warm front lifts readily northward back
into the area. Return stratus clouds, breezy conditions, and the
low level moisture will result in much warmer morning on Friday.
With mid level heights rising (or weak mid level ridging), it
appears the warm front will stall somewhere west and north of
I-20, with a surface dryline nudging into our far W/SW counties.
While all this is occurring, another upper level system is
deepening across the Southern Rockies, with a lead shortwave
ejecting eastward across the Southern and Central High Plains. A
low "conditional" chance for thunderstorms will be possible near
the dryline and old frontal boundary draped somewhere across the
far N/NW counties. With SW flow aloft over the area and some
EML/cap expected, if a storm or two does develop, it would likely
become severe with the strong winds aloft and very high SBCAPE
values and mid level lapse rates at 8 deg C/km or higher. These
would likely be supercells with very large hail, damaging winds,
and could potentially be tornado along and just north of where the
stalled front sets up. Again, this very "conditional", but worth
monitoring.

Otherwise, have held to increasing convective chances, north of
I-20/I-30 Friday Night within the nose of the strongest WAA, then
across most of the area Saturday into Saturday evening, as the
upper system rotates across the area and brings substantial large-
scale ascent across the area, along with a cold front late
Saturday into Saturday night. All modes of severe weather will be
possible on Saturday, with potential for flash flooding along and
east of I-35 and north of I-20 where rainfall totals by Sunday
morning may reach between 2-4 inches. Definitely worth noting
along with the severe weather threat.

Much cooler and brisk conditions arrive after daybreak Sunday
with convective chances shifting east away from the area. Strong
CAA arrives in wake of yet another strong late season cold front
with highs hard pressed to get out of the 60s most areas. Cyclonic
flow aloft will transition to zonal or even weak ridging, which
will result in dry conditions with gradual moderating temperatures
each day early next week. Another upper trough possibly affects
the area again mid-late next week, but as of right now, models as
expected are struggling on specifics of organization, speed, and
track of features.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  50  81  65  86 /  40   0   0   0  20
Waco                77  48  83  66  88 /  20   0   0   0  10
Paris               69  45  75  59  82 /  80  10   0   5  30
Denton              67  46  81  62  85 /  40   0   0   5  20
McKinney            71  46  78  62  84 /  60   0   0   0  20
Dallas              75  51  81  66  87 /  40   0   0   0  20
Terrell             71  46  80  62  85 /  60   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           77  48  79  65  87 /  40   0   0   0  10
Temple              83  50  83  66  88 /  10   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       68  45  86  62  88 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
355 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270900-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
355 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms today for areas generally north of
Interstate 20 and east of Interstate 35. Some storms may become
severe, particularly for areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Storms will push
east of the region this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the
area. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorm chances will return Friday, increase on Saturday and
end during the day on Sunday. At this time it appears the best
potential for severe thunderstorms will be late Friday through
Saturday. Locally heavy rain may also cause some flooding issues
across the eastern half of the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this morning into early
afternoon, mainly for counties north and east of the Dallas-Fort
Worth Metroplex.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     HAIL             CEDAR HILL              32.58N  96.95W
04/26/2017  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

TXZ132-133-144-145-261145-
Bosque TX-Hill TX-Johnson TX-Somervell TX-
622 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMERVELL...JOHNSON...NORTH
CENTRAL BOSQUE AND NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 622 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Glen Rose, or 23 miles north of Clifton, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Burleson, Cleburne, Keene, Joshua, Alvarado, Venus, Glen
Rose, Grandview, Godley, Blum, Covington, Cross Timber, Cleburne
State Park, Dinosaur Valley State Park, Rio Vista, Walnut Springs and
Briaroaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3232 9778 3232 9761 3255 9761 3255 9709
      3226 9709 3198 9772 3211 9782 3209 9787
      3210 9787 3223 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 238DEG 48KT 3210 9770

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 AM     HAIL             CEDAR HILL              32.58N  96.95W
04/26/2017  E2.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CEDAR HILL. 1.5" AT
            NARROWEST, 2" AT WIDEST.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
647 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

TXZ133-261215-
Johnson TX-
647 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM
CDT...

At 647 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keene, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Burleson, Cleburne, Keene, Joshua, Alvarado, Venus,
Grandview, Godley, Cross Timber, Cleburne State Park, Rio Vista and
Briaroaks.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3255 9709 3226 9709 3218 9747 3217 9747
      3216 9751 3213 9751 3215 9757 3218 9757
      3218 9760 3220 9759 3220 9761 3255 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1147Z 243DEG 40KT 3237 9732

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
656 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

TXZ093-261230-
Grayson TX-
656 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAYSON COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM
CDT...

At 656 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Eisenhower State Park to near Pilot Point.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Van Alstyne, Howe, Pottsboro,
Collinsville, Whitewright, Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Knollwood,
Dorchester, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd, Sadler and Luella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9689 3385 9686 3387 9681
      3386 9678 3382 9676 3383 9671 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3384 9662
      3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3377 9642
      3373 9638 3340 9639 3342 9694 3395 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 245DEG 40KT 3381 9661 3337 9697

30