Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convection continues to develop along and ahead of a slow moving
cold front which was near a line from Paris to Dallas to
Goldthwaite at 3 PM. The atmosphere is quite unstable and severe
thunderstorms will likely continue into the mid evening hours with
storms slowly shifting southward with the cold front. Some
elevated showers and storms are possible north of the front
through the evening, but these should remain below severe limits.
Along with the threat for large hail and damaging winds, there
will be a potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially southeast of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to
Athens where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM CDT
Tuesday. There is a good chance that the heavy rainfall will shift
south of the CWA overnight with the development of a strong cold
pool. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch may be canceled during the
overnight hours if this occurs.

A weak shortwave will translate across the region on Tuesday and
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
This activity will remain elevated above the front and should
remain well below severe limits.

Once the shortwave trough axis passes to the east, a weak ridge
will build in from the west and result in a brief dry period
Tuesday night. The presence of the ridge will be very temporary
due to the development of a strong trough across the western
states. A series of shortwaves will round the base of the long
wave trough and bring multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday with the best chances Thursday and again
on Sunday. At this time the severe potential appears low with the
end of the week/weekend storms.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/
A cold front currently stretches from near a MKN-MWL-GYI line
early this afternoon and is gradually progressing southeastward.
Winds ahead of this feature are incrementally veering, and a north
flow at the Metroplex airports is anticipated over the next 1-2
hours, while the true north wind shift will likely hold off until
around 20Z or thereabouts.

Thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the the aformentioned
cold front during the 1-2 PM time frame as the lingering vestiges
of our capping inversion are lifted and eroded. Given the front's
location north and west of all TAF sites, severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening. The primary threats with
storms today will be large hail (and some hail approaching 2" is
not out of the question), along with wind gusts in excess of 50
kts. Based on the available observational and high-resolution
data, the most likely time frame for direct impacts at Metroplex
sites appears to be during the 20-23Z period, and 22-02Z at Waco.
There is some uncertainty regarding the longevity of thunder
impacts this afternoon and evening, however. Most high-resolution
guidance agrees that a consolidating cold pool will swiftly usher
this thunderstorm complex south and east of the Metroplex, and
based on this morning's upper air sounding showing plentiful dry
air aloft, this appears to be the most probable solution.
Therefore, opted to shut VCTS mention off at 11/01Z in the
Metroplex, but the threat for showers (and perhaps a sporadic
lightning strike) will persist overnight.

A similar trend may play out at Waco, but uncertainty regarding
how far south the cold pool pushes influenced the decision to hold
onto VCTS for a few more hours tonight. These timings will
continually be refined this afternoon and evening.

At all sites, MVFR cigs are expected to return this evening and
overnight as the frontal inversion begins to saturate.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  73  61  79  63 /  50  20  10  20  10
Waco                61  74  61  79  62 /  70  40  10  20  10
Paris               58  71  58  75  60 /  60  20  10  20  10
Denton              55  72  57  77  61 /  50  10  10  20  20
McKinney            57  71  58  77  61 /  60  20  10  20  10
Dallas              61  74  62  79  64 /  60  20  10  20  10
Terrell             60  73  60  78  62 /  60  40  10  20  10
Corsicana           62  73  62  79  62 /  70  40  20  20  10
Temple              62  73  61  78  62 /  80  50  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       54  72  57  78  61 /  40  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

90/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of North and Central
Texas through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are likely through the
evening generally along and southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. Heavy rainfall is also likely and may result in
flash flooding, especially along and south of a line from
Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens, where a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect until 7 AM. The severe threat will diminish by late evening
but the flash flood threat will continue overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday southeast of a line
from Bonham to Weatherford to Comanche. Severe storms are not
expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, periodically,
across much of the region Tuesday night through Friday. Cloud to
ground lightning will be the primary hazard. Severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite through this evening.

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