Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Fort Worth, TX

180 
WGUS74 KFWD 011238
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
738 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2017

TXC133-011245-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170601T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastland TX-
738 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTLAND COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 745 AM
CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
significant threat. However, minor flooding or ponding of water on 
roads may still persist through mid to late morning. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3251 9863 3222 9864 3208 9893 3209 9911
      3250 9910

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
342 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR and satellite data indicate a vorticity center spiraling
just to the north of Abilene, with what appears to be a weak
trough axis extending from the vort center east-southeastward
across North and Central Texas. Scattered showers and storms
continue to lift slowly northward this morning in the vicinity of
the trough, and will most likely continue across the I-20 corridor
later this morning, approaching the Red River around midday. It
appears that the mid-upper level feature will become nearly
stationary this afternoon and evening somewhere near the Red
River, remaining in place and keeping rain chances going through
tomorrow.

With this morning's activity being scattered in nature, not
everyone will see rain, but additional opportunities will occur as
we get redevelopment during the peak heating hours of the
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but the presence of
good instability means that some strong storms with gusty winds,
small hail and frequent lightning will be possible. Isolated
storms will persist well into the evening, with the better
chances occurring across the northern counties near the upper
trough axis. Friday's POPs will similarly remain highest across
the north, decreasing to slight chance across the far southern
counties.

Meanwhile, we will be awaiting the approach of shortwave troughs
in the northern and southern branches of a split flow pattern. The
northern system will begin moving into the Central and Southern
Plains on Saturday, effectively absorbing what is left of the
stationary low near the Red River. We will still have good
moisture in place so this will just keep chances of mainly
diurnal convection going on Saturday, with the best chances
initially across the northwest. The southern branch trough will
sync with the northern system Saturday night and move slowly
southeast across the region on Sunday. Chance POPs will be
warranted area-wide on Sunday and Sunday night as the upper level
systems move overhead, with rain chances gradually ending from
northwest to southeast on Monday.

By this time a deep upper trough will have developed along the
Eastern Seaboard with an upper level ridge stretching from the
Plains to the Desert Southwest. The resulting north flow pattern
aloft will send a cold front south of the Red River on Tuesday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the
strength of this front. At this point POPs associated with the
passage of the front will be kept in the 20-30 percent range and
only a slight post-frontal cool-down will be advertised. We would
then warm back up and dry out late next week as the upper ridge
to our west develops east.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017/
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue mainly
west of the I-35 corridor through 12z. As an upper level trough
currently over West Texas moves slowly east, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across North and Central
Texas again during the day Thursday. Have just placed VCSH for the
19z through 00z period for the Metroplex TAF sites and for the
15z through 00z period at Waco. Some gusty winds and small hail
may accompany some of the storms Thursday afternoon. Outside of
the scattered showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected with southeast winds 6 to 10 knots. Some MVFR ceilings
may spread into the Waco and the Metroplex TAF sites overnight
Thursday night (08-12z Friday).

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  71  87  72  88 /  40  30  30  20  30
Waco                86  69  87  70  88 /  40  20  20  20  30
Paris               82  67  82  69  85 /  40  30  40  20  40
Denton              84  68  85  70  87 /  40  30  40  20  40
McKinney            84  68  85  70  86 /  40  30  40  20  30
Dallas              86  71  86  72  88 /  40  30  30  20  30
Terrell             84  68  85  70  87 /  40  30  30  20  30
Corsicana           84  69  87  71  87 /  40  20  30  20  30
Temple              85  69  87  69  88 /  40  20  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       85  68  86  68  87 /  40  30  30  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1024 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-020330-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1024 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur mainly west of the
I-35 corridor tonight. Cloud to ground lightning will accompany some
of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A slow moving upper level disturbance to our west will continue to
trigger scattered thunderstorms areawide on Thursday. With little
shear, the activity will be generally disorganized. However, there
is a small potential for a strong or marginally severe storm across
North or Central Texas during the afternoon. The hazards, aside from
lightning, would be hail and brief strong wind gusts.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue Friday through Monday.
While no "washouts" are expected on any given day, somewhat better
chances for thunderstorms will exist east of the I-35 corridor
through the weekend. The severe threat will remain low, but areas
that experience multiple rounds of rainfall may have some minor
flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2017

TXZ129-130-010815-
Erath TX-Eastland TX-
246 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 242 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line from near Huckabay in Erath County to west of Cisco in
Eastland County. Movement was north at 15 mph.

Half-inch hail will be possible with these storms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning is occurring with these storms.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3250 9806 3231 9820 3221 9851
      3226 9855 3218 9870 3216 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 183DEG 12KT 3235 9828 3227 9853 3225 9874 3233
9910

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