Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

944 
WWUS53 KFSD 140105
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
805 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

SDC067-087-099-125-140130-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-170614T0130Z/
Minnehaha SD-McCook SD-Turner SD-Hutchinson SD-
805 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MINNEHAHA...SOUTHERN MCCOOK...NORTHWESTERN TURNER AND
NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 805 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canistota, or
near Lake Vermillion State Recreation Area, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Lake Vermillion State Recreation Area around 810 PM CDT. 
  Montrose around 815 PM CDT. 
  Humboldt around 820 PM CDT. 
  Hartford around 825 PM CDT. 
  Crooks and Colton around 830 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central South Dakota. A tornado watch also remains in effect
until 200 AM CDT for southeastern and east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4327 9752 4357 9751 4385 9695 4385 9685
      4364 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 232DEG 44KT 4355 9726 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ferguson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Current analysis shows a surface low centered over central Nebraska,
with a trough axis/subtle cold front extending northward into
central SD. A warm front is attendant to the surface trough
positioned north of our forecast area where winds turn to the
east/southeast, compared with south to southeast in our area. Aloft,
water vapor imagery clearly shows two vorticity maxima, one located
with the parent upper low in southwest MT, with a secondary maximum
developing right now in southeast WY.

The southeast WY vort max will rotate northeastward into central and
southeast SD by 03Z this evening, then becomes rather sheared off as
it lifts northeastward in southwest MN between 03Z and 06Z. However
another short wave moves into zones just south of our forecast area
after midnight tonight. Speed shear is strong with this short wave,
averaging 40 knots really across the entire forecast area through
the overnight hours. However, directional shear is rather weak.
Therefore thoughts are that discrete cells may develop along the
wind shift and ahead of the drier air in our western zones, from
Huron and Mitchell westward late this afternoon, then morph into a
line of convection as it moves eastward along and east of the James
River valley. ML CAPES are extremely high denoting high instability,
in the range of 2000 to 4000 J/kg this evening, before decreasing
between 03Z and 06Z. Therefore golfball to isolated baseball sized
hail is possible in our western zones during the early evening, with
the threat transitioning to 60 to 70 mph winds between the I 29
corridor and the James River with quarter to walnut sized hail
during the mid evening hours. As it moves eastward into southwest MN
after mid evening and overnight, the primary threat is still the 60
to 70 mph wind potential. Further south in extreme northeast
Nebraska and northwest IA, this area will likely not receive any
discrete cells whatsoever, with the secondary short wave mentioned
above keeping that area rather stirred up all the way through 09Z.
But likewise, the severe weather threat is most prominent in the
evening hours. In fact, 0-3km bulk shear vectors bend to a west/
southwest direction in northwest IA during the mid and late evening
hours suggesting a bow echo, or at the least some bow segments. This
is not the case in the rest of our forecast area, as the 0-3km bulk
shear vectors have a decided south to southwest tilt to them,
suggesting that widespread strong wind is not likely. But the
stronger rotating updrafts in northwest IA could certainly carry
some 60-80mph winds in the mid and late evening, with brief possible
spin up tornadoes, which may be hard to tell the difference between
those and 80 mph winds at any rate.

Things will quiet down after 06Z rather rapidly as the short wave
currently in southwest WY exits. A surface wind shift will follow
suit providing a pleasant day on Wednesday with a dry westerly flow
of air and stable conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Much more tranquil pattern expected in the extended with westerly
flow expected for the next several day as upper level low pressure
system works towards and eventually north of the Great Lakes. This
will result in dry conditions though temperatures will remain above
normal with 850 hpa temps remaining in the upper teens.

Surface low will track across the area Friday night creating the
chance for showers and storms mainly east of the James River Valley.
Limited amounts of Gulf moisture appear to work north ahead of this
system, thus limiting the amount of instability.

Fairly strong cold front is expected to work through the region on
Saturday afternoon leading to an additional chance of thunderstorms.
Cooler conditions are expected to reign Sunday through Tuesday with
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

The challenge today are strong thunderstorms. A disturbance will
be moving through this evening and overnight ahead of a surface
wind shift. Timing in the TAFs has been refined to a slightly
later arrival of TSRA for the TAF sites to reflect a degree of
capping which is in place through much of the afternoon hours. At
any given time during the TSRA threat time, some storms could be
severe with large hail and strong erratic winds. In addition,
conditions could be IFR in periods of heavy rainfall. This is
something for the aviation community to keep an eye on. Toward
daybreak Wednesday and into mid morning, indications are there
could be some temporary MVFR ceilings which is common after
rainfall and ahead of the wind shift.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
449 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

IAZ001-012-020-MNZ071-097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-053>056-
059>062-065>071-141000-
Lyon IA-Sioux-Plymouth-Lincoln MN-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
449 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An increasing severe weather threat is expected today, with
numerous severe storms likely developing this afternoon and
evening along and east of the James River. The main risks are
large hail up to baseball size, and damaging winds to 70 mph.
Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with some of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely after 3 pm.

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-141000-
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
449 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, and southwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An increasing severe weather threat is expected today, with
scattered strong to severe storms likely developing late this
afternoon and evening. The main impact will be damaging winds to
70 mph, and large hail up to golf ball size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely after 6 pm.

SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064-141000-
Gregory-Jerauld-Brule-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
449 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota and south central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Isolated strong storms will be possible, producing large hail up
to quarter size, and strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
702 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARKSTON                43.40N 97.99W
06/13/2017  M62 MPH          HUTCHINSON         SD   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             9 WNW ETHAN             43.59N 98.15W
06/13/2017  E1.50 INCH       DAVISON            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             TRIPP                   43.23N 97.97W
06/13/2017  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
719 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOONSOCKET              44.06N 98.27W
06/13/2017                   SANBORN            SD   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN. (REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
743 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAVOUR                  44.37N 98.03W
06/13/2017                   BEADLE             SD   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED WITHIN TOWN.

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
748 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S CAVOUR              44.29N 98.04W
06/13/2017                   BEADLE             SD   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWNED.

&&

TH