Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
328 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The main concern this afternoon and evening is the potential for
scattered strong to severe storms through late this evening. As of
19Z, WV satellite imagery shows a shortwave over central Dakota with
associated cold front just west of our forecast area, extending to
central Nebraska. A secondary wave over central Nebraska is pushing
a warm front north into the area, thus bringing more instability and
moisture. Isolated to scattered high-based showers will continue to
develop ahead of the warm front, located somewhere along Highway 20.
These storms could produce small hail and brief heavy rain.

The area of greatest concern is along the Missouri River Valley and
northwest Iowa. Towering cumulus clouds already building along the
cold front will be the spark for convection initiation, mainly after
3 pm. Steepening lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km, and perpendicular
strong bulk shear vector to 50 knots will aid in the development of
organized supercells along and ahead the surface boundary. With 0-3
km bulk shear vector from 25-35 knots, and decent 0-1km EHI a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms will gradually
diminish from west to east in the nighttime.

Some lingering showers are expected on Friday, mainly east of I-29.
Partly cloudy skies will prevail on Friday with breezy northwesterly
winds. Areas east of I-29 could see isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, with diurnal heating and the passage
of a weak shortwave. Highs will generally be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

There could be a lingering shower or two across southwest Minnesota
through the morning hours on Friday, but the main player will be an
elevated boundary working through in the afternoon hours.  With
atmospheric lapse rates being near moist adiabatic and limited wind
shear, expect storms to remain non-severe.

High pressure will build into the region on Friday night and have
erred toward cooler guidance values. Should see warming trend
through the weekend with a warm front lifting toward the I-90
corridor Sunday evening. This boundary may serve as the focusing
mechanism for thunderstorms across northwest Iowa Sunday evening as
a series of short waves move through the area Sunday night into
Monday.

Storm chances are a bit more conditional on Monday as a stronger cap
looks to be in place.  Models suggest a fairly strong shortwave
moving across the Central Plains on Tuesday, but looks to be focused
well south of the forecast area.

Thereafter, upper level ridge builds across the western half of the
US, leading to warmer and potentially drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, but low
ceilings (low to mid clouds) are possible later today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening;
becoming numerous after 00z mostly for KFSD, and KSUX sites. Thunderstorm
chances will slowly diminish from west to east in the overnight
hours. In addition, strong gusty winds to 45 mph are possible with
the storms.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
420 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

IAZ001>003-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-
052>068-300930-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
Bon Homme-
420 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
southwest Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South
Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers will spread across the area through
the early afternoon, and persist into tonight. Severe weather is
unlikely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-300930-
Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-
Dixon-Dakota-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
420 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers are expected to develop by this afternoon and
persist through tonight. A few severe storms will be possible,
mainly late afternoon through this evening, with hail up to the
size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
347 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             PONCA                   42.57N 96.71W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       DIXON              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&