Alert archive / South Dakota / Blizzard Watches in 2017

Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

February 22, 20174 states

NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this blizzard watch at Feb 22, 2017, 3:22 PM CST for 4 states. It took effect at Feb 23, 2017, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 22, 2017, 3:22 PM CST (21:22 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 23, 2017, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Feb 23, 2017, 10:59 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Sioux Falls, SD
All 40 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2017-02-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2017-02-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1399 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

562 
WWUS43 KFSD 222122
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064-230530-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170223T1800Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170223T1800Z-170225T0000Z/
Gregory-Jerauld-Brule-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The Winter Storm Watch has been cancelled. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area by midday Thursday, then continue
  heavy at times Thursday night into Friday. Snow should diminish
  Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph by Thursday afternoon into Friday. Visibility is
  expected to be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at 
  times while snow is falling. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

NEZ013-SDZ053>056-059>062-065>071-230530-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Dixon-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
afternoon. The Winter Storm Watch has been cancelled. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow on Thursday afternoon
  will change to all snow by early Thursday evening. Snow will 
  continue heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before 
  gradually tapering off Friday evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph on Thursday night and Friday. Visibility is
  expected to be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at 
  times while snow is falling. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ014-230530-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
evening. The Winter Storm Watch has been cancelled. 

* TIMING...A brief mix of rain and snow Thursday afternoon will
  change to all snow by early Thursday evening. Snow will 
  continue heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before 
  gradually tapering off Friday night.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph Thursday night, with gusts over 45 mph possible on
  Friday into Friday evening. Visibility is expected to be reduced
  to less than a quarter of a mile at times while snow is falling.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

SDZ038>040-230530-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...snow will develop across the area and become heavy at
  times by Thursday night and Friday, before gradually tapering 
  off Friday evening.


* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
  are likely.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  20 to 35 mph by Thursday afternoon into Friday. Visibility is 
  expected to be reduced to less than a half mile at times while 
  snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

IAZ031-032-230530-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Woodbury-Ida-
322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...Rain will change to snow Thursday night, with snow 
  continuing heavy at times Friday. Snow should diminish Friday 
  night. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
  are possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 20 to 35 mph Thursday night through Friday evening. 
  Visibility is expected to be reduced to less than a half mile 
  at times while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
164 
WWUS43 KFSD 230257
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064-231100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170223T1800Z-170225T0000Z/
Gregory-Jerauld-Brule-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area by midday Thursday, 
  then continue heavy at times Thursday night into Friday. Snow 
  should diminish Friday afternoon. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph by Thursday afternoon into Friday. 
  Visibility is expected to be reduced to less than a quarter of 
  a mile at times while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

NEZ013-SDZ053>056-059>062-065>071-231100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Dixon-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow on Thursday afternoon 
  will change to all snow by early Thursday evening. Snow will 
  continue heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before 
  gradually tapering off Friday evening. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph on Thursday night and Friday. Visibility 
  is expected to be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at 
  times while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ014-231100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...A brief mix of rain and snow Thursday afternoon will 
  change to all snow by early Thursday evening. Snow will 
  continue heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before 
  gradually tapering off Friday night. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are likely, with amounts in excess of 12 inches 
  possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph Thursday night, with gusts over 45 mph 
  possible on Friday into Friday evening. Visibility is expected 
  to be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at times while 
  snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$

SDZ038>040-231100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...Snow will develop across the area and become heavy at 
times by Thursday night and Friday, before gradually tapering 
off Friday evening. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches are likely. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 20 to 35 mph by Thursday afternoon into Friday. 
  Visibility is expected to be reduced to less than a half mile 
  at times while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

IAZ031-032-231100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Woodbury-Ida-
857 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...Rain will change to snow Thursday night, with snow 
  continuing heavy at times Friday. Snow should diminish Friday 
  night. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches are possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 20 to 35 mph Thursday night through Friday evening. 
  Visibility is expected to be reduced to less than a half mile 
  at times while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
735 
WWUS43 KFSD 231014
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

NEZ013-SDZ056-062-067-070-071-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Dixon-Moody-Minnehaha-Lincoln SD-Clay SD-Union-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Friday. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow by early this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday morning, before
  gradually tapering off Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 6 to 12
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected south of
  Highway 18 in northwest Iowa and extreme southeast South Dakota.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 40 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a quarter mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012-020-MNZ080-097-098-NEZ014-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Lyon IA-Sioux-Plymouth-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Friday. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow by early this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday morning, before
  gradually tapering off Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 6 to 12
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected south of
  Highway 18 in northwest Iowa and extreme southeast South Dakota.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 40 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a quarter mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-MNZ081-089-090-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight
CST Friday night. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow through this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before gradually
  tapering off Friday evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 8 to 12
  inches are likely, with some higher amounts possible.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight, with gusts to near 45 mph at times late
  tonight into Friday. Visibility is expected to be reduced to
  less than a quarter of a mile at times, especially while snow is
  falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ032-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Ida-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight
CST Friday night. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow through this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before gradually
  tapering off Friday evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 8 to 12
  inches are likely, with some higher amounts possible.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight, with gusts to near 45 mph at times late
  tonight into Friday. Visibility is expected to be reduced to
  less than a quarter of a mile at times, especially while snow is
  falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ031-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Woodbury-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Friday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow by late this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday morning, before
  gradually tapering off Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 6 to 12
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected south of
  Highway 18 in northwest Iowa and extreme southeast South Dakota.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 40 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a quarter mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

SDZ050-057-058-063-064-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170223T1800Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T1800Z-170224T1800Z/
Gregory-Brule-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow, which is in effect
from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Blizzard Watch is no 
longer in effect. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area by midday today,
  becoming heavy at times this afternoon and evening. Snow should
  diminish through Friday morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 10
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected near the
  Missouri River Valley.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a half mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. 
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous...and visibilities will be limited further due to strong
winds blowing snow around.  Only travel in an emergency.  If you
must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

SDZ059-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T1800Z-170224T1800Z/
Davison-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow, which is in effect
from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Blizzard Watch is no 
longer in effect. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area by midday today,
  becoming heavy at times this afternoon and evening. Snow should
  diminish through Friday morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 10
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected near the
  Missouri River Valley.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a half mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. 
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous...and visibilities will be limited further due to strong
winds blowing snow around.  Only travel in an emergency.  If you
must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

SDZ055-060-061-065-066-068-069-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T2100Z-170225T0000Z/
Lake-Hanson-McCook-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM CST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow, which is in effect
from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Friday. The Blizzard Watch 
is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow by this evening. Snow will continue heavy at
  times tonight, before gradually tapering off Friday morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 10
  inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected near the
  Missouri River Valley.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a half mile at
  times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. 
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous...and visibilities will be limited further due to strong
winds blowing snow around.  Only travel in an emergency.  If you
must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

SDZ053-054-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Sanborn-Miner-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect 
from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday. The Blizzard Watch is
no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early to mid afternoon,
  then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish through
  Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 5
  inches are expected.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile or less at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

SDZ052-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170223T1800Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Jerauld-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early to mid afternoon,
  then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish through
  Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 5
  inches are expected.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile or less at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

SDZ038>040-231815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0003.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect 
from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm 
Watch is no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early to mid afternoon,
  then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish through
  Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 5
  inches are expected.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile or less at
  times, especially while snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-231815-
/O.EXT.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-
414 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area by late this afternoon,
  then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish through the
  day Friday.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 1 to 4
  inches are expected.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts of 40 to 45 mph at
  times. If the falling snow is heavy enough, visibility could be
  reduced to less than a quarter mile at times, especially while
  snow is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.

&&

$$
705 
WWUS43 KFSD 231659
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

SDZ055-240100-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T2100Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Lake-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect 
from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm 
Warning has been cancelled. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early to mid 
  afternoon, then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish 
  through Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 
  4 inches are expected. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north around
  25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 mph at
  times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile at times, especially
  while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

SDZ057>059-240100-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T1800Z-170224T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Brule-Aurora-Davison-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect 
from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm 
Warning has been cancelled. 

* TIMING...Snow will continue through tonight. Snow should
  diminish late tonight into Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 5
  inches are expected, with the higher amounts near Interstate 90
  and points south.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 
  mph at times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile or 
  less at times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

SDZ038>040-231800-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

While light snow will still be possible this afternoon and evening
amounts should be less than 2 inches. This will diminish the
threat for widespread blowing and drifting.

$$

MNZ071-231800-
/O.CAN.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Lincoln MN-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has cancelled the
Blizzard Watch. 

While light snow will still be possible this afternoon and evening
amounts should be less than 2 inches. This will diminish the
threat for widespread blowing and drifting.

$$

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ080-097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ056-062-067-070-
071-240100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
Lyon IA-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-
Dakota-Moody-Minnehaha-Lincoln SD-Clay SD-Union-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will
  change to all snow by early this evening. Snow will continue
  heavy at times Thursday night and before gradually tapering off
  Friday morning into the afternoon. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 
  11 inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected south 
  of Highway 18 in northwest Iowa and extreme southeast South 
  Dakota. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 40 
  mph at times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a 
  quarter mile at times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ081-089-090-240100-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0600Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay IA-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-
Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will 
  change to all snow through this evening. Snow will continue 
  heavy at times Thursday night and Friday, before gradually 
  tapering off Friday evening. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 8 to 
  12 inches are likely, with some higher amounts possible. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph tonight, with gusts to near 45 mph at 
  times late tonight into Friday. Visibility is expected to be 
  reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at times, especially 
  while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

SDZ050-063-064-240100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T1800Z-170224T1800Z/
Gregory-Charles Mix-Douglas-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...Snow will will continue, heavy at times this afternoon
  and evening. Snow should diminish late tonight into Friday morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 
  10 inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected near 
  the Missouri River Valley. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 
  mph at times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a half 
  mile at times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous...and visibilities will be limited further due to
strong winds blowing snow around.  Only travel in an emergency. 
If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water
in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

SDZ060-061-065-066-068-069-240100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0003.170223T2100Z-170225T0000Z/
Hanson-McCook-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...A possible mix of rain and snow this afternoon will 
  change to all snow by this evening. Snow will continue heavy 
  at times tonight, before gradually tapering off Friday 
  morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 5 to 
  10 inches are likely, with the heaviest amounts expected near 
  the Missouri River Valley. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 
  mph at times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a half 
  mile at times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous...and visibilities will be limited further due to
strong winds blowing snow around.  Only travel in an emergency. 
If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water
in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MNZ072-240100-
/O.UPG.KFSD.BZ.A.0001.170224T0000Z-170225T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170224T0300Z-170225T0000Z/
Lyon MN-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect 
from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday. The Blizzard Watch is 
no longer in effect. 

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early this evening, then
  continue through tonight. Snow should diminish through the day 
  Friday. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 1 to 
  3 inches are expected. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 35 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts of 40 to 45 
  mph at times. If the falling snow is heavy enough, visibility 
  could be reduced to less than a quarter mile at times, 
  especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that 
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and 
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open 
areas.

&&

$$

SDZ052>054-240100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.170223T2100Z-170224T1800Z/
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-
1059 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...Snow will spread into the area early to mid 
  afternoon, then continue through tonight. Snow should diminish 
  through Friday morning. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulations averaging 2 to 4
  inches are expected with the higher amounts closer to Interstate
  90.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...Winds will increase from the north 
  around 25 to 30 mph tonight and Friday, with gusts to near 35 
  mph at times. Visibility will be reduced to a half mile or 
  less at times, especially while snow is falling. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and
blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...especially in open
areas.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Feb 22, 11:08 AM CST, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 11:08 AM CST, 4 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1108 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 441 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

There is still time to enjoy one more day of lingering warm weather,
although it will not be as warm as Tuesday, and more significant
changes are fairly close at hand. A weak wave will be traversing
north of the area through mid afternoon, with decent mid-level
frontogenesis brushing the northern CWA around KHON toward KBKX.
Airmass below remains fairly dry, so at best an isolated sprinkle to
shower threat through mid-morning.  A weak surface wave will slip
past the area later this morning as well, and this will pull a
frontal zone southeast across the area with a shift to some gustier
northwest winds.  Temps aloft remain warm enough through the
Missouri river corridor that temps will climb well into the 60s and
perhaps to a couple of record highs. To the north toward the highway
14 corridor, likely only reaching the mid 50s, and those temps due
to increasing cold advection during the afternoon should actually
occur earlier in the day and begin to tail off somewhat as advection
outpaces mixing and see an increase in some lower cloudiness as
well. The I-90 zone will be in between, with mainly upper 50s to
around 60 with a steady to slow fall initiating by early to mid
afternoon.

The cooler air will begin to slide southward with more forcefulness
tonight as the broad entrance of anticyclonic jet streak works
across the area as jet core moves into Minnesota. A blanket of lower
clouds will drop across the area from the north with strengthening
north to northeast low level flow. Cooling overnight will be
significant enough that as the developing precipitation in strong
frontogenetic zone toward south central South Dakota evolves by late
tonight, there should only be a brief period of anything other than
snow, and that is only if the wet bulb process is not as efficient
as it could be.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 441 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Focus for this forecast period in the medium range, as a significant
winter storm system impacts the region late this week. Still some
spread among the various model solutions, although they do continue
to show some convergence toward a common solution, certainly more so
than was seen a few days ago. ECMWF remains on the southern end of
the solutions, with GFS/Canadian slightly north and fairly similar
to each other. NAM remains on the northern fringe, and a bit of an
outlier when compared to other deterministic and ensemble solutions.

Thursday will begin with strong isentropic lift developing along
295K surface into south central SD, in advance of a strengthening
mid-upper level trough sliding east across the Rockies. ECMWF is a
little slower to saturate than GFS/Canadian, but all show a rapid
uptick in saturation/lift after 18Z Thursday, with precipitation
likely throughout the area by late afternoon commute time. Will be
some precip type issues at the onset, especially south of I-90 and
east of the James River Valley, where midday surface temperatures
could be close to 40 degrees. Northern and western portions of the
forecast area more likely to see temperatures remain in the lower
30s throughout the day, closer to raw model guidance which seems
more representative with anticipated precip development than a blend
which includes MOS guidance values. Given rapid increase in lift and
saturation, especially in our far west, have bumped the start time
of the Winter Storm Watch forward to 18Z Thursday in areas west of
the James River.

By late Thursday afternoon, strong band of mid level frontogenesis
develops across the forecast area, and differences in placement of
this seem to most greatly influence northern bias of the NAM QPF and
snowfall when compared to other models. GFS/Canadian maintain the
strongest mid level front support near or even a little south of the
I-90 corridor into early Friday evening, while the NAM lifts this
closer to Highway 14. With preference for GFS/Canadian, will keep
highest pops/QPF focused along/south of I-90 for Thursday afternoon
and evening, though location of the heaviest snowfall will again be
impacted low level temperature profiles.

Later Thursday night through Friday, generally expect the system to
continue strengthening as the upper level and low level low centers
shift slowly into western Iowa. Through this time, the ECMWF becomes
a bit of an outlier on the fast side, with less strengthening and
thus a more progressive shift toward the Mississippi Valley than the
GFS/Canadian. Have continued to side more with the slower solutions
at this time, which keeps moderate to heavy snowfall across much of
the area into Friday morning, and for locations near/east of I-29
through Friday afternoon and possibly into the evening hours. Along
with the falling snow, the strengthening system will bring increased
northeast-north winds through this period, with a potential for wind
gusts of 35-40 mph at times Friday into Friday evening. Given the
delayed exit of snowfall and potential for strong winds into the
evening hours, have extended the Winter Storm Watch through Friday
evening for our MN/IA counties, along with Dakota County, Nebraska.
Cannot rule out blizzard conditions developing, especially in open
areas Friday, but with lingering uncertainty given the latest ECMWF
timing, will stick with Winter Storm Watch for now.

The trend toward a stronger/slower system in the latest GFS/Canadian
has resulted in higher precipitation totals throughout the area,
especially potential snowfall maxima within the highest part of the
band, which currently favors a line from south central SD, through
Sioux Falls, into southwest MN. Consensus points to a fairly strong
potential for snowfall in excess of a foot in these areas. While
higher QPF axis is actually farther south, amounts to the southeast
of this line will be initially limited by warmer temps and rainfall.
Areas to the northwest toward Huron/Brookings are expected to be
north of the strongest frontogenetic forcing, which should likewise
limit amounts. Snowfall in excess of 6 inches currently looks quite
possible, though if mid level forcing is strong enough, could see a
sharper cutoff to amounts along the north edge of the heavier band,
as has been seen in previous events this season. As with any potent
system such as this, though, further refinements will surely be made
in the later forecasts.

With focus on the medium range winter storm, little change has been
made to the forecast through the weekend and early next week. The
expected widespread snowfall will surely keep temperatures closer to
normal than we've seen in recent days. Could see a weak system or
two track across the region early-mid next week, though little
agreement among the models on timing/location of these waves at this
range, so nothing more than chance pops are warranted at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

MVFR and IFR ceilings across North Dakota are poised to settle
south into the area tonight. Expect widespread low end MVFR to IFR
conditions late tonight into early Thursday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for SDZ038>040-053>056-059>062-065>071.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for NEZ013.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening
     for NEZ014.

&&

SHORT TERM...Chapman
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08

Nearby

Blizzard Watches in South Dakota, 2017Blizzard Watches in Iowa, 2017Blizzard Watches in Minnesota, 2017Every blizzard watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.