Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
959 AM MST Thu Aug 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect one more day of scattered thundertorms across
northern Arizona Today. A drier and more stable airmass will
bring much less storm coverage this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite imagery shows cumulus development
beginning along the Mogollon Rim with more expansive cloud cover
to the south. The 12z RAOB from Bellemont this morning was a bit
more moist than yesterday with a precipitable water value of 0.88
inches. The 700-500mb lapse rate was also noticeably steeper than
yesterday indicating more CAPE available than the past few days
as well. We are expecting the most extensive convective
development to occur across the western Mogollon Rim with storms
moving generally to the north and northeast. The primary threat
will remain flash flooding and gusty outflow winds near
thunderstorms. Storm intensity and coverage will decrease after
sunset this evening.

A significant downward trend in showers and thunderstorms is still
on track for later this weekend and into next week as dry
southwesterly flow increases across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /403 AM MST/...Moisture will be a limiting
factor for storm formation through the rest of the week, with
drier conditions expected through the weekend and into early next
week. Isentropic analysis shows moderate moisture remaining in the
region through Thursday evening allowing widespread storm
development. Southerly steering flow will allow for storms to
develop off the higher terrain such as the White Mountains,
Mogollon Rim, and Bradshaw Mountains before moving North-
Northeastward.

By Friday morning dry air associated with a low pressure system
off the California coast will begin to move into the Yavapai
county and should limit some storm development over the lower
terrain Friday. By Saturday the dry air looks to move into most of
the Northern Arizona. While some storms will still be possible
with this pattern, these storms are expected to be more widespread
and less efficient at producing heavy rainfall rates.

The dry air looks to be at its maximum extend Monday before an
easterly wave moves across the Four Corners region and re-
establishes a wetter monsoonal pattern by the later half of next
week. Confidence is not strong over the timing of this return to
wetter conditions, however model agreement in a return of
moisture does have chances of precipitation increasing in the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered showers and
thundertorms forming across the Mogollon Rim after 18z. Mostly
VFR conditions with MVFR and local IFR with the stronger storms.
Storms clearing after 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms today and
Friday with areas of moderate to locally heavy rain. Gusty winds
will develop near any storms.

Saturday through Monday...A general drying trend with daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms decreasing across northern Arizona,
near average temperatures are expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/Suk
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 AM MST Thu Aug 3 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-040430-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
407 AM MST Thu Aug 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim later this morning, with storm motion
to the North and Northeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Moisture begins to decrease across the area limiting storms to a
more isolated pattern through the weekend and into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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