Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

024 
WWUS55 KFGZ 152012
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
112 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZC007-017-152045-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170715T2045Z/
Gila-Navajo-
112 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST
FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 112 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fort Apache, or
27 miles south of Show Low, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Whiteriver, Turkey Creek, Seven Mile, Rainbow City, Fort Apache, Fort
Apache Reservation, East Fork and Canyon Day.

This includes State Route 73 between mile markers 323 and 343.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 11028 3396 11004 3384 10987 3361 11004
      3361 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 040DEG 9KT 3383 11004 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

084 
WWUS55 KFGZ 152023
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
123 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZC007-017-152045-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170715T2045Z/
Gila-Navajo-
123 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST
FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 122 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Fort
Apache, or 29 miles south of Show Low, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fort Apache, Whiteriver, Fort Apache Reservation and Canyon Day. 

This includes State Route 73 between mile markers 324 and 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 11028 3390 11007 3382 10995 3361 11004
      3361 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 049DEG 10KT 3382 11010 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

725 
WWUS55 KFGZ 152037
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
137 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZC007-017-152046-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170715T2045Z/
Gila-Navajo-
137 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 145 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy 
rain will still occur with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3378 11028 3390 11007 3382 10995 3361 11004
      3361 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 048DEG 27KT 3376 11018 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 AM MST Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains this weekend, with
isolated storms elsewhere. Moisture is expected to increase early
next week, with shower and thunderstorm coverage growing across
the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Much the same weather today as on Friday. Generally
isolated storms north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with
scattered storms along and south of these features. Think there is
a little more juice for stronger storms across the general area
extending from Payson to Camp Verde/Black Canyon city to
Prescott/Bagdad. Localized flooding, wind gusts to 60 mph and hail
up to quarter size will be possible in a storm or two within this
area from the mid afternoon into the early evening.

High pressure aloft was centered near Las Vegas this morning, and
will slowly move into southern Utah by Sunday. This will keep
northern Northern Arizona in a northeasterly steering flow. Little
change in moisture profiles are seen for the weekend. Thus
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the Mogollon Rim by early afternoon and drift
southwestward. Only isolated storm coverage is expected north of
the Mogollon Rim.

From Monday onward...Models show the high center traveling to a
position over Colorado. The result will be a shift to a southeast
to northwest steering flow across Arizona. The expectation is
that monsoon moisture values will increase across all of northern
Arizona and bring increasing storm coverage across the northland.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast period except in and around thunderstorms.
Scattered thunderstorms expected 18Z-02Z in far NE Arizona and along
the Mogollon Rim near KFLG-KSOW, moving SW with time toward KPRC,
KSEZ, KPAN. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible with storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
today with near average temperatures. By Sunday, look for increasing
coverage and intensity of showers and storms as moisture increases
across northern Arizona. This will also begin a trend of cooler
temperatures and higher humidity.

Monday through Wednesday...Increased moisture over the state will
lead to an active period of showers and thunderstorms with more
widespread coverage. The threat for heavy rainfall will increase.
Daytime temperatures will run just below average with elevated
humidity levels.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum/DL
AVIATION...DB/MCS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1148 AM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ016-151930-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-
1148 AM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 PM MST...

At 1147 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Heber-Overgaard, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gentry Campground and Heber-Overgaard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 11077 3449 11060 3433 11038 3416 11063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 320DEG 5KT 3438 11063

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1214 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ009-039-040-152000-
Black Mesa Area-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
1214 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM MST...

At 1214 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Keams Canyon, moving west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Keams Canyon, First Mesa, Jeddito, Navajo and Polacca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 11012 3576 11003 3564 11031 3590 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 067DEG 8KT 3585 11016