Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

270 
WWUS55 KFGZ 142135
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
235 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

AZC001-017-142145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170814T2145Z/
Apache-Navajo-
235 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 235 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Woodruff, or 33 miles north of Show Low, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas OF
Apache and Navajo Counties.

This includes Highway 180 between mile markers 327 and 343.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 10997 3472 11005 3484 10971 3462 10962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 264DEG 19KT 3471 10993 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MCT

109 
WWUS55 KFGZ 142144
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

AZC001-017-142153-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170814T2145Z/
Apache-Navajo-
244 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits. Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However 
small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still likely with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3457 10997 3472 11005 3484 10971 3462 10962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 243DEG 30KT 3474 10986 

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
along and east of a line from Payson to Page, with dry conditions
west of this line. No storms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday. Breezy southwest winds are on tap for today and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Drier air is filtering into the region from the west
this morning, with satellite precipitable water estimates falling
below 0.50" from Flagstaff and the Kaibab Plateau westward. East
of this area (east of a Page to Payson line), low level moisture
remains with sfc dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Mesoscale
models forecast mixed layer CAPE this afternoon close to 1000 J/kg
in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Deep layer shear is
stronger than a normal monsoon day, but still not overly
impressive. Shear and instability could combine for a few strong
to locally severe storms this afternoon. There is also a threat of
some training storms producing flash flooding. Drying trend still
looks on track starting Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...From Tonight through Friday, a
drier and stable airmass will cover northern Arizona with west
southwest flow aloft continuing. While no showers and tstorms are
forecast after this evening, there could be a decent amount of mid
level cloud cover tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the
Great Basin. Min temps the next few mornings should be around 4
degrees below average for the date.

For the weekend, monsoon moisture and instability may return to
eastern Arizona Saturday and spread northwestward Sunday. We keep
the slight chance of storms going for now.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect sct shra/tsra and isold
+tsra mainly east of a KFLG-KPAN line from 18Z-02Z today. MVFR/IFR
in the stronger storms. Mainly VFR conditions elsewhere with SW sfc
winds 10-20kts. VFR all areas aft 02Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A decreasing trend in storm coverage is expected
today, with only a slight chance for showers in the White Mountains
by Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds are also expected for Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with generally light winds
are anticipated.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 AM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

AZZ010>018-038>040-150200-
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
Black Mesa Area-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
912 AM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
evening generally along and east of a Page to Flagstaff to Payson
line. Some of the storms could become strong or locally severe,
with hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding
could develop in a few locations due to storms moving repeatedly
over the same area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Much drier air will end the chance of thunderstorms over most of
northern Arizona Tuesday through at least Friday. A slight chance
of storms returns to the region for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
131 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

AZZ013-142100-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
131 PM MST MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY SOUTH OF
HOLBROOK UNTIL 200 PM MST...

At 130 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Holbrook, or 31 miles southeast of Winslow, moving
east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holbrook and Woodruff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 11029 3486 11035 3496 11010 3476 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 249DEG 11KT 3480 11024

MCT