Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

458 
WWUS55 KFGZ 282318
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2017

AZC025-282326-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-170728T2315Z/
Yavapai-
418 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm north of Cordes Junction which prompted the warning has 
weakened below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate 
threat to life or property. Therefore the warning has been allowed 
to expire.

Addition severe storms are possible around the area.

LAT...LON 3443 11220 3446 11215 3438 11205 3433 11216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 332DEG 5KT 3438 11212 

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily chance for showers and thunderstorms as
an active monsoon pattern remains in place across northern Arizona
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms initiated first
along the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim by late morning, with
new storms now forming along outflows across northern Gila and
Yavapai Counties. Less intense activity has recently begun across
portions of the Little Colorado River Valley, likely due to a lack
of instability there. Most of today's storms have been short-
lived, with heavy rainfall being the primary hazard.

Most model guidance predicts that shower activity will continue
through the overnight hours. This is likely do to the existence of
an inverted trough/vorticity maxima currently draped across
central portions of the area. The best chances for overnight
rainfall appear to be roughly east of a line from the Four Corners
to Prescott.

Plenty of low level moisture will remain in place for another
round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Weak shear, modest
instability and slow storm movement will once again combine to
make flash flooding the primary hazard. Saturday may see an
increase in storm activity as compared to today, but this will
depend on the movement of the inverted trough and the nature of
the overnight convection. In general, expect another wet day
across much of the area, with good chances for storms continuing
into at least early next week.

There are some indications that drier air may work its way into
the area from the north around the middle of next week. However,
without a strong and persistent drying mechanism, at least
isolated storms will likely continue into the foreseeable future.
Will continue to monitor this drying trend over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered SHRA/TSRA expected to
continue again until 02Z with MVFR to IFR conditions in the
heavier storms. Clearing conditions overnight with a return to
active showers and thunderstorms around 18z Saturday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
across the fire district this weekend and into early next week.
Winds to be generally light except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Lightning, gusty erratic winds, and flash flooding are the main
threats from these storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff