Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

782 
WWUS55 KFGZ 222219
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
319 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

AZC025-222228-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-170722T2230Z/
Yavapai-
319 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However this storm is 
still producing heavy rain. Do not enter flooded roads.

LAT...LON 3403 11204 3417 11210 3424 11189 3400 11175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 341DEG 16KT 3398 11189 

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 AM MST Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon conditions will continue for the next
several days. Heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding
remains possible from stronger storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across western
Arizona, with mostly cloudy conditions across the Navajo nation.
The amount of precipitable water in this mornings Bellemont
sounding is slightly above normal. So it looks like an active
thunderstorm day across northern AZ, with storms firing first
along the Mogollon rim. The U of AZ WRF does suggest additional
storm activity late this afternoon and evening across the
northeast quarter of Arizona.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...Monsoon moisture will remain in
place across northern Arizona through Monday with the active
weather pattern continuing. By Tuesday or Wednesday models show a
bit drier and more stable air mass moving across the area with
storm activity becoming more isolated except near the Arizona/New
Mexico border.

For today and Sunday...High pressure aloft was in the process of
becoming centered over the Nevada/Utah border during this
morning. The air mass remains moist across northern Arizona so
look for another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today. The position of the high will result in a
steering flow that will nudge storms southward off the Mogollon
Rim. The result will be a more focused area of shower and storm
activity across a broad area containing Prescott and Payson.
Stronger storms will be capable of producing 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall. On Sunday, the high will wobble across utah with the
flow becoming more easterly. This will probably mean drier air for
the northeast corner of the state and a downturn in activity.
However, from the Mogollon Rim south, the very active weather
pattern will continue with some suggestion by model soundings of a
more unstable environment with an enhanced threat for severe
storms and flash flooding across the region south of the Mogollon
Rim.

On Monday...An upper disturbance will swing across northern
Arizona. Not much upward motion or low-level flow for orographic
forcing with this feature. Looking at model soundings the air
mass will be near saturated through a deep layer. The result will
likely be a good chance of showers, but without decent forcing
for upward motion or sunshine to build instability, more showery
than anything else. At least that's the way it looks at this
point. Stay tuned.

From Tuesday onward...Models show a drier low-level air mass
moving in from over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Also, a building
high pressure center aloft over Arizona may result in warming mid-
level temperatures. All-in-all it appears that there will be a
decrease in overall activity to mainly isolated except along the
Arizona/New Mexico border.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...For the 18Z package...Sct to
numrs shra/tsra and isold +tsra developing by 17z-19z. Highest
coverage along/south of KFLG-KSJN line, with a secondary area west
of KRQE. Coverage gradually decreasing aft 00z-02z. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions in the stronger storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue through
the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
The best thunderstorm chances will be from the Mogollon Rim
southward. Heavy rain and gusty winds will remain the primary
impact. Expect near average temperatures across the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Active monsoon conditions continue Monday
with high rain chances. A slight downturn in storm chances is
possible by Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a bit drier air
moves in.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL/McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 AM MST Sat Jul 22 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-230315-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
321 AM MST Sat Jul 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Look for another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The steering flow aloft will be weak so storms
today will be slow moving and capable of dropping 1 to 3 inch
downpours. As a result, flash flooding will be possible with
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Daily thunderstorms will continue into the middle of next week
with the usual day-to-day variations of coverage and intensity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1257 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

AZZ008-037-038-222030-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek
and Sycamore Canyons-
1257 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
MST...

At 1256 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rimrock, or 9 miles northeast of Camp Verde, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mcguireville, Montezuma Well, Montezuma Castle National Monument,
Rimrock, Lake Montezuma, Wet Beaver Creek Campground and V Bar V
Visitors Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 11189 3477 11178 3468 11160 3454 11177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 309DEG 7KT 3467 11175

MCT