Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

723 
WWUS55 KFGZ 081928
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1228 PM MST SAT JUL 8 2017

AZC001-081937-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170708T1945Z/
Apache-
1228 PM MST SAT JUL 8 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APACHE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer will produce hail greater than one inch. 
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  

However heavy rain is occurring with this storm which was about 15 
miles southeast of Whiteriver.

LAT...LON 3373 10988 3380 10981 3376 10976 3370 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 343DEG 13KT 3364 10980 

$$
41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
949 AM MST Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will begin to cool closer to average over
the weekend and into next week. Chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will gradually increase over northern Arizona
through the the first half of next week as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast continues to bode well for more widespread thunderstorms
associated with the monsoon triggering late this morning and
through the afternoon hours.

While some gusty winds will be possible with these storms,
especially in the lower elevations, the morning upper air profile
is suggesting an enhanced threat of flash flooding due to a
steering profile that is around ten knots out of the East. This
along with with a nearly saturated layer from 540 mbar up to the
tropopause should provide a mix of gusty outflow winds and slow
moving storms capable of triggering flash flooding in prone areas.
Due to the limited cape in the hail growth zone, most hail from
storms should be on the sub-severe size.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /316 AM MST/...The high pressure circulation will
remain centered over the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau
region through the weekend into early next week. Sufficient
moisture, as evidenced by Friday's shower and thunderstorm
activity, will combine with daytime instability today to bring
another round of scattered afternoon and evening storms. Weak
easterly winds aloft will lead to slowly moving storms generally
to the west/northwest. Storms will produce light to moderate
rainfall. Strong winds will be a concern in the lower elevations
(especially Yavapai/Gila Counties) where dry sub-cloud layers will
enhance outflow winds. A few wind gusts in this region may
approach 60 MPH.

Similar conditions are expected Sunday through next week with
daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms driven by daytime
instability. Strong thunderstorm winds will become less of a
concern each day as the low levels of the atmosphere begin to
saturate.

The increased showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures
today at least a few degrees below yesterday's highs. Expect
temperatures to drop closer to normal ranges through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and brief MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible
in stronger storms. Activity will diminish significantly after 02Z
with lingering isolated showers continuing into the overnight hours
tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooling temperatures and increased boundary layer
moisture are expected through the weekend. Trends over the weekend
include higher minimum relative humidity values and higher chances
of wetting rains.

Monday through Wednesday...The district will be in a medium grade
monsoon pattern during this time. Expect scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Chances
for wetting rain will improve each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Suk/MCT
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 AM MST Sat Jul 8 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-090700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
322 AM MST Sat Jul 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and last
through the evening hours. Expect light to moderate rainfall with
these storms. Strong thunderstorm winds will be a concern for
areas below the rim country. A few gusts near 60 MPH are possible,
especially in Yavapai and Gila Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect a typical monsoon pattern with scattered thunderstorms
developing each day. Thunderstorm hazards will include lightning,
moderate rainfall, and small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.