Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

977 
WGUS75 KFGZ 052049
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
149 PM MST TUE SEP 5 2017

AZC001-052345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0089.000000T0000Z-170905T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Apache-
149 PM MST TUE SEP 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
APACHE COUNTY...

At 147 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain was ending 
across the warned area. Still...the threat for flash flooding is 
expected to continue due to the very heavy rain that had fallen 
earlier.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Del Muerto and Canyon De Chelly National Monument. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 10920 3614 10916 3597 10922 3603 10943
      3609 10954 3619 10955 3627 10934

$$

KD

047 
WGUS75 KFGZ 052329
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 PM MST TUE SEP 5 2017

AZC001-052338-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0089.000000T0000Z-170905T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Apache-
429 PM MST TUE SEP 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR APACHE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain around Canyon De Chelly has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3627 10920 3614 10916 3597 10922 3603 10943
      3609 10954 3619 10955 3627 10934

$$

KD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Tue Sep 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
week, with the best chances today and again Friday and Saturday.
High temperatures will remain well above normal today, but will
gradually decrease to near average the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A relatively active monsoon day is expected to
unfold later this morning and into the afternoon based on latest
trends in the model guidance. Storms are expected to develop
along the Mogollon Rim later this morning and progress toward the
west-southwest through the afternoon and evening. Hi-res models
indicate the potential development of a complex similar to the one
that moved through Yavapai County late yesterday afternoon and
evening. As mentioned by the previous shift, there is also some
indication of a secondary cluster of storms developing over
central/northern Navajo and Apache counties which will then move
toward the southwest into the Flagstaff area late afternoon/early
evening. These scenarios are not much different from the previous
shifts thinking so current forecast remains on track. No updates
were needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /406 AM MST/...Strong high pressure centered
north of the state will bring another day of well above normal
high temperatures, especially for areas north of the Mogollon Rim
which are closer to the center of the ridge and where less cloud
cover is expected. Otherwise, we expect another round of showers
and thunderstorms to develop. The first storms are forecast to
develop around mid day along the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns,
then move toward the west-southwest with the steering flow into
northern Gila and Yavapai counties from mid afternoon to early
evening. A few storms could become strong, with wind gusts near 50
mph and hail. A secondary area of storms could develop along the
higher terrain in northeast Arizona and move southwestward toward
Winslow and Flagstaff later early to mid evening, though this
activity should be less intense and more widely scattered.

Wednesday and Thursday - mid-level flow turns more out of the
southeast as the high shifts toward New Mexico. This will bring a
slow decrease in daytime high temperatures. Moisture values look
slightly lower these two days, but still sufficient for isolated
to scattered storms, mainly from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns
northward. Gila and Yavapai counties should see less storm
coverage in this flow pattern.

Friday and Saturday - deep layer flow becomes southerly and
increases due to flow around the ridge to our east and a trough
off the California coast. This should lead to an increase in
moisture levels. The deepest moisture is currently forecast to
arrive in southern Arizona on Friday then spread north Saturday.
Storm chances are in the 30 to 50 percent range each of these
days. The ridge is forecast to shift back toward Arizona by early
next week which would bring lower storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
will develop after 18z over the higher terrain before moving west-
southwest through the afternoon and evening. Stronger cells will
produce moderate rain with potential for MVFR visibility and gusty
winds up to 45 kts. Storm coverage and intensity will gradually
diminish after 03z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Moisture will gradually increase through the week
leading to an increase in daily shower and thunderstorm activity.
Daytime temperatures will begin to trend down closer to early
September averages. Outside of storms, winds will remain light with
a slight increase in southerly wind by late in the week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/JJ
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Tue Sep 5 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-060200-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
440 AM MST Tue Sep 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains by early afternoon, then move into
northern Gila and Yavapai County from mid afternoon into early
evening. Some of the storms could become strong, with wind gusts
near 50 mph and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storm chances shift mainly to areas along and north of the
Mogollon Rim for Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday and Saturday,
increasing moisture will bring a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms to all of northern Arizona. There will also be an
increased chance of localized heavy rainfall and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.