Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

312 
WGUS75 KFGZ 242050
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
150 PM MST THU AUG 24 2017

AZC025-242315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-170824T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
150 PM MST THU AUG 24 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 144 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have moved out 
of the Goodwin Fire Burn Scar. Moderate rainfall should continue 
through 215 Pm MST with an additional .25 inch possible. 
Precipitation should be over after 215 PM.  

Doppler radar estimates up to 2 inches of rain fell in the Wolf 
Creek drainage with amounts up to .75 inches in the Pine Creek and 
Little wolf Creek drainages. Lesser amounts were estimated for other 
drainages in the burn scar. 

This includes the following drainages...Turkey Creek...Little Wolf 
Creek...Pine Creek...Big Bug Creek... Grapevine Creek...Wolf 
Creek...Hackberry Creek and Mineral Creek.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Life threatening flash floods and debris flows will occur in the Mule
Canyon, Wolf Creek, and Pine Creek drainages. High water and debris
will affect the Mayer-Bolada Road and Pine Flat Road. Act quickly and
avoid these areas!

&&

LAT...LON 3428 11229 3441 11238 3446 11231 3444 11222
      3435 11216 3429 11223

$$

41

027 
WGUS75 KFGZ 242223
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST THU AUG 24 2017

AZC025-242232-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-170824T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
323 PM MST THU AUG 24 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat across the Goodwin fire burn scar. Please continue to heed 
any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3428 11229 3441 11238 3446 11231 3444 11222
      3435 11216 3429 11223

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity to much of northern Arizona today.
Generally isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the high terrain for Friday and over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Todays short term forecast is in good shape with no updates
planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /251 AM MST/...A low pressure system approaching
from the west has provided enough upward motion/cooling aloft in
combination with monsoon moisture to produce quite a bit of
shower and thunderstorm activity overnight across northern
Arizona. For today, the upward motion center will move eastward
with activity diminishing during the morning hours. However, a
relatively cool air mass aloft will remain over Arizona and with
moisture lingering daytime heating will produce another round of
showers and storms. Activity generally scattered over the higher
terrain and more isolated across the valleys.

For Friday and the weekend...The low weakens as high pressure
builds over the area encompassing Arizona, Nevada and Utah. A
relatively dry air mass will initially be associated with the
building high in addition to a mid level warm cap. Also, with the
influence of shorter days there probably will only be enough
heating for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The
exception will be the White Mountains region of eastern Arizona
where moisture will remain more substantial and storms more
numerous.

Monday and early next week...Models continue to show more
significant monsoon moisture making a comeback, pushed northward
by thunderstorm outflows from over northwest Mexico. At the same
time, the high center is expected to become centered north to
northwest of Arizona. The result will be a northeast steering flow
suggesting that the best chance for storms will be from the
Mogollon Rim southward.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
most of northern Arizona through the 24 hr period. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop after 18z along the Mogollon Rim and
continue through the evening with lingering showers until around
02z. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in the stronger storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will
increase in coverage from yesterday west along the Mogollon Rim with
the greatest coverage still in the White Mountains. Significantly
less thunderstorm activity is anticipated over northern Arizona
Friday and Saturday, with the highest chances remaining in the White
Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Sunday will remain mostly dry with a few
isolated thunderstorm chances for areas south of the Mogollon Rim.
More organized afternoon thunderstorm chances return Monday along
and southeast of the Mogollon Rim with greatest coverage over the
White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL/McCollum
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
328 AM MST Thu Aug 24 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-250415-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
328 AM MST Thu Aug 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain with isolated activity over the lower elevations. The
main threat today will be cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday and
over the weekend.

Increasing monsoon moisture will result in a better chance of
thunderstorms heading into Monday and Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.