Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

418 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130147
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170813T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 640 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated 
moderate to heavy rainfall had moved back into the warning area. 
About a half inch of additional rainfall in expected in the West 
Clear Creek drainage, located east of Camp Verde and near Bullpen 
Ranch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will continue.

River gages on West Clear Creek near the Bullpen Swimming area 
reported about a rise of about a foot. Other smaller creeks and 
washes in the region may experience higher rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bullpen Swimming Area and Clear Creek Campgrounds.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Walker Creek...
Long Canyon...Verde River and West Clear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 11157 3453 11157 3452 11167 3452 11171
      3451 11173 3451 11183 3452 11181 3453 11176
      3459 11171 3461 11164

$$

723 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130257
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
757 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130305-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170813T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
757 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM
MST...

At 755 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that 
only light rain was falling in the warning area, located along West 
Clear Creek. Earlier rises along West Clear creek have receded and 
no reports of flooding have been received. Therefore, the Flash 
Flood Warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3461 11157 3453 11157 3452 11167 3452 11171
      3451 11173 3451 11183 3452 11181 3453 11176
      3459 11171 3461 11164

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect typical monsoon weather conditions through the
weekend. Drier air will bring a decreasing trend in storms
beginning Monday, with isolated storms from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Active afternoon across northern Arizona with
scattered storms and isolated very heavy rain. Small hail was also
reported. HRRR does show storms continuing through the night
moving from west to east across Coconino County into central
Navajo and Apache Counties.

Low level moisture remains plentiful across northern Arizona
through Sunday. The steering flow will push storms toward the
E-NE. Fairly slow storm motion will bring a chance of localized
heavy rainfall/flooding. Hail and gusty winds will also accompany
the stronger cells.

On Monday, a trough of low pressure will move out of the Pacific
Northwest into the Great Basin. This will push monsoon moisture
east of Arizona and will bring drier are over the state. Storm
chances will drop to the slight chance category for most areas.
By Tuesday, further drying is expected as the trough moves across
Arizona. Breezy to windy southwest winds will also develop on
Monday and Tuesday. Near average daytime temperatures should
persist through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and evening across
northern AZ, with localized MVFR/IFR conditions in the strongest
storms. Storm coverage and intensity will decrease after 03Z, with
redevelopment expected during the daylight hours Sunday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Monday, with temperatures slightly below
normal.

Tuesday through Thursday...A drier air mass will move back into the
region with significantly decreased storm chances.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-130230-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lingering monsoon moisture will lead to scattered showers and
thundertorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Some local
areas could see heavy rain lead to flash flooding, and this will
be the main concern. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible
with stronger cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect typical monsoon weather conditions Sunday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threats will include
lightning, heavy rain, and small hail. Drier air will bring
decreasing thunderstorm activity Monday, with little to no chance
of storms Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
303 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZZ015-122215-
Western Mogollon Rim-
303 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FLAGSTAFF...

At 300 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a thunderstorm
producing pea-sized hail over Flagstaff near the I-40 and I-17
junction, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Flagstaff and Walnut Canyon National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists near the I-40 and I-17 junction should drive with extreme
caution.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 11171 3521 11174 3527 11158 3514 11151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 250DEG 21KT 3517 11166

TM