Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

626 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312155
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

AZC007-312345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-170731T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila-
255 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
GILA COUNTY...

At 247 PM MST, Doppler radar shows heavy rainfall has ended across 
the Highline Fire Scar. Around 0.75 inches fell across much of the 
scar in about 30 minutes. Expect flash flooding and debris flows 
moving through Ellison, Moore and Bonita Creeks. The debris flow can 
consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Heavy rainfall will likely trigger life threatening flash floods and
debris flows in and near the Highline fire scar.  Some roadways and
trails within and downstream of the scar, including Forest Road 112,
may be inundated or washed out.  Homes downstream of the scar in the
Bonita Creek, Ellison Creek, Pyle Ranch, and La Cienega Ranch areas
may be impacted by high water and debris flows. Move away from
creeks, streams, and washes now!

&&

LAT...LON 3434 11127 3442 11122 3441 11120 3441 11119
      3440 11116 3439 11116 3434 11119

$$

RR

048 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312250
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

AZC007-312345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-170731T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila-
350 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
GILA COUNTY...

At 346 PM MST, Doppler radar shows rainfall has ended across the 
Highline Fire Scar. Around 0.75 inches fell across much of the scar 
in about 30 minutes. Expect flash flooding and debris flows moving 
through Ellison, Moore and Bonita Creeks. The debris flow can 
consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Heavy rainfall will likely trigger life threatening flash floods and
debris flows in and near the Highline fire scar.  Some roadways and
trails within and downstream of the scar, including Forest Road 112,
may be inundated or washed out.  Homes downstream of the scar in the
Bonita Creek, Ellison Creek, Pyle Ranch, and La Cienega Ranch areas
may be impacted by high water and debris flows. Move away from
creeks, streams, and washes now!

&&

LAT...LON 3434 11127 3442 11122 3441 11120 3441 11119
      3440 11116 3439 11116 3434 11119

$$

RR

682 
WGUS75 KFGZ 312341
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
441 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

AZC007-312350-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-170731T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila-
441 PM MST MON JUL 31 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GILA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended across the Highline Fire Scar. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3434 11127 3442 11122 3441 11120 3441 11119
      3440 11116 3439 11116 3434 11119

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
924 AM MST Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Active conditions will remain in place across much of
Arizona today. Beginning Tuesday, slightly drier air may lead to
a decrease in thunderstorm coverage across northern portions of
the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Extensive cloud cover blankets much of northern
Arizona this morning with lingering shower activity across western
Coconino and Yavapai Counties. There are some breaks in the cloud
cover especially visible in the Flagstaff and Prescott areas.
Within the past half hour, we have begun to see the first
convective development of the day with isolated thunderstorms over
the White Mountains. The 12z RAOB from Bellemont was similar to
yesterday mornings sounding with a precipitable water value of
0.89 inches. One noted difference is slightly stronger speed shear
in the SFC-3 km layer at 23 kt. Taking all of this into account,
it is expected to be a near normal monsoon day with cloud cover
and a rain-cooled airmass being a deterrent to more widespread
thunderstorm development. The primary threats will remain flash
flooding and frequent lightning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /405 AM MST/...Our inverted trough/deformation
area is in nearly the same position as 24 hours ago. Bands of
light rain persist this morning across portions of southern
Coconino and Yavapai county. These should dissipate in the next
few hours.

Once again, extensive cloud cover and a rain-cooled airmass will
hamper convection today. Many areas will start later and with very
light steering flow, storms will be tied to terrain and then
outflow driven.

A ridge builds to our northwest through the remainder of this week
as the inverted trough exits to the west. This will bring a
warming trend to the area and a return to east and northeast
steering flow. It is possible that the ridge will be strong
enough to start to suppress convection, especially to the north,
over time. For now, we have just reduced pops slightly, back down
towards climatology for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered TSRA will redevelop
late this morning and afternoon, initially over the mountains and
then spreading into the lower elevations. Isolated IFR in +TSRA
along with outflow winds up to 25 kts. Storm coverage should
decrease after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
again today with locally heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Expect
a gradual decrease in thunderstorm activity across the Arizona/Utah
border region through midweek, with storm chances favoring areas
along the Mogollon Rim south into Yavapai and Gila Counties. Daytime
temperatures will be very close to average.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/Peterson
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
554 AM MST Mon Jul 31 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-010700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
554 AM MST Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another cloudy start is expected today, although not as cloudy
and wet as Sunday. Clouds should break up faster this morning and
thunderstorms will develop first over higher terrain and in areas
that see early sunshine.

The most likely initial development will be over the White
Mountains and Mogollon Rim, with storm motion to the west and
northwest. This will bring activity into Yavapai and western
Coconino counties by the late afternoon. A few stronger storms
are possible today, capable of producing hail and very heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Shower and thunderstorm activity should decrease slightly through
the week, returning to more typical levels for the summer.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.