Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

261 
WGUS75 KFGZ 260542
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1042 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2017

AZC005-260550-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170726T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino-
1042 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM
MST...

At 1040 PM MST, river gauges at the Paria River near Lees Ferry were 
receding. The levels were still about 1.5 feet above normal, but the 
flood waters will continue to drain from Paria Canyon and return to 
normal overnight. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will expire at 
1045 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3683 11160 3700 11202 3700 11155 3688 11153

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 PM MST Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will persist through this
evening across northwest Arizona, with isolated coverage
elsewhere. A marked decrease in storm coverage is anticipated
Wednesday through Thursday. A return to typical monsoon
conditions are expected to return starting Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
across areas west and north of a line from Page-Flagstaff-Prescott
through mid evening. An outflow boundary is seen in moving
southeastward through Coconino and Yavapai counties now, and is
helping to fire off some convection in these areas. Elsewhere
storm coverage is far less than the past few days.

For Wednesday through Thursday - drier and more stable air is
forecast to move over central and western Arizona, leading to
decrease in daytime storm coverage. Moisture lingers along the
AZ/NM border with scattered storms. Storm chances were removed
for the overnight hours for areas below 6000 feet.

Friday through Tuesday - high pressure centered near the four
corners will result in a gradually moistening east to southeast
flow for northern Arizona. Thus expect a return to more typical
monsoon storm coverage. In addition models also hinting at
another inverted trough moving westward across central AZ in the
Friday Saturday time frame. This may bring some stronger night
time storms as well, and we will be working to refine the time line
on this.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue along and west of a KPRC-KFLG-KPGA line until 03z...
elsewhere isolated. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely in the stronger
storms. Activity will decrease and mostly end by 06Z with VFR
conditions spreading across northern Arizona. Look for another round
of isolated showers and storms on Wednesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A slightly drier air mass will spread across
northern Arizona on Wednesday and Thursday. The result will be a
generally lower level of activity with generally isolated afternoon
and evening showers and storms. Look for slightly warmer
temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...For Friday moisture will begin to sneak back
across Arizona with an increased chance of showers and storms. On
Saturday and Sunday, a renewed push of moisture is expected to
deliver another round of active monsoon weather to the fire
district.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 AM MST Tue Jul 25 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-260200-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
407 AM MST Tue Jul 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Deep monsoon moisture will remain over northern Arizona today.
Expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms into
early evening, with the highest chances over Coconino and Yavapai
Counties. A few of the storms could produce heavy rainfall and
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A decrease in storm coverage is expected Wednesday and Thursday
before ramping back up by Friday and the Weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
437 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW LEES FERRY         36.87N 111.59W
07/25/2017                   COCONINO           AZ   OTHER FEDERAL

            RIVER GAUGE ON THE PARIA RIVER AT LEES FERRY
            MEASURED A STAGE OF 6.16 FEET INDICATING
            BETWEEN A 1.5 TO 2 FOOT RISE.

&&

MCT