Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

399 
WGUS75 KFGZ 212339
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
439 PM MST FRI JUL 21 2017

AZC025-212348-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170721T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
439 PM MST FRI JUL 21 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM
MST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters will continue to recede this 
evening and flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures and do not drive 
through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 3428 11209 3431 11237 3442 11246 3448 11230
      3432 11205

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.

&&
.Discussion...The morning sounding showed a Pwat of 1.04" (very
wet!) with light steering winds. Visible satellite loop showed two
MCVs in the area--one over northern Navajo and Apache Counties and
one southeast of Alpine this morning. These circulations will help
trigger storms (already doing so at 1000 AM) today and will also
influence the directions that storms will move. We expect another
active day today with locally heavy rain. Some storms may also last
through the evening and night. May have to adjust POPs up for the
overnight hours.

&&

.Prev DISCUSSION /307 PM MST/...Monsoon moisture will remain
entrenched across all of northern Arizona today. The steering flow,
albeit weak, will tend to guide storms south to southeastward. The
primary forcing mechanism will be daytime heating with showers and
storms tending to develop over the mountain areas first before
moving into the valleys and lower elevation locations in the mid to
late afternoon. Storms today will be slow moving with stronger/more
organized storms capable of producing 1 to 3 inch downpours.
Therefore, flooding will be the main threat from stronger storms
today.

For Saturday and Sunday...The forecast models are still insisting
that a northeast to southwest flow sets up across Arizona in
response to high pressure becoming centered over
Nevada/Utah/Arizona. The described flow pattern will deliver a
drier air mass to the northeast corner of Arizona with a decrease
in shower and storm activity. From the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains southward and across central Arizona monsoon moisture
will remain entrenched with a good chance of showers and storms
each day.

From Monday onward...Moisture will remain in place with the threat
for daily showers and thunderstorms continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect scattered to numerous SHRA
and TSRA developing into early evening, with isolated +TSRA.
MVFR/IFR in the stronger storms. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
gradually decreasing after 03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
Heavy rain and gusty winds will remain the primary impact. Expect
near average temperatures across the area.

Sunday through Tuesday....Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, favoring the Mogollon Rim southward Sunday,
then all of northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/McCollum
AVIATION...DL/JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 AM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-220345-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
314 AM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Look for another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The steering flow aloft will be weak so storms
today will be slow moving and capable of dropping 1 to 3 inch
downpours. As a result, flash flooding will be possible with
stonger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Daily thunderstorms will continue into the middle of next week
with the usual day-to-day variations of coverage and intensity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W FOREST LAKE         36.30N 110.38W
07/20/2017                   NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            AN ESTIMATED 2-3 FT. RISE IN THE DINNEBITO
            WASH ALONG NAVAJO ROUTE 41. PICTURE FROM
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME IS APPROXIMATE.

&&

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
227 PM MST FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MAYER              34.41N 112.24W
07/21/2017                   YAVAPAI            AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BIG BUG CREEK ROSE 2 TO 2.5 FEET AT THE
            CENTRAL AVE BRIDGE IN MAYER. WIDTH OF FLOOD
            WATERS WAS ABOUT 50 FEET.

&&

MCT