Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

860 
WGUS75 KFGZ 170504
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZC017-170530-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170717T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Navajo-
1004 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM MST FOR
NAVAJO COUNTY...

At 1001 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain has ended 
over the warning area and water should continue to recede. Some 
rural roads may continue to have water ponding or running across 
them late this evening.  

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 277 between mile markers 306 and 328.
 State Route 260 between mile markers 299 and 311.
 State Route 377 between mile markers 0 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.
&&

LAT...LON 3459 11020 3436 11023 3440 11070 3461 11074
      3458 11067

$$
JJ

434 
WGUS75 KFGZ 170533
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1033 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZC017-170542-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170717T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Navajo-
1033 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NAVAJO COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended over Navajo County. Storm runoff from 
earlier this evening will continue overnight, but the risk of 
flooding has diminished. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3459 11020 3436 11023 3440 11070 3461 11074
      3458 11067

$$
JJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
349 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains heading into Monday,
with isolated storms elsewhere. Heavy rainfall rates from the
stronger storms will be capable of producing flash flooding across
parts of the area. Moisture is expected to increase by Tuesday and
Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing
across northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION....As anticipated another round of showers and
thunderstorms rolled southwestward off the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains region and across central Arizona. Stronger storms were
located across this region. Reports as of this afternoon include
ping pong ball size hail north of Prescott. Stronger storms from
Prescott south and west will have similar potential along with
wind gusts approaching 60 mph. The main threat for flash flooding
will be during the evening hours southwest of a line extending
through Prescott and Black Canyon City. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect. In addition, look for another round of showers and storms
across the Little Colorado River Valley and portions of the
Mogollon Rim this evening as thunderstorm outflows roll across
the area and tap any remain instability, mainly garden variety.
Activity will end by around midnight.

On Monday...The Flash Flood Watch continues for the Mogollon Rim,
White Mountains and locations southward. The main threat for
flooding will be in the afternoon into the early evening. Storms
once again will form along the Mogollon Rim and over the White
Mountains and head southward into deeper moisture. In addition to
flash flooding wind gusts to 60 mph and up to 1 inch diameter hail
will be possible. Storms will be more of a garden variety and
fewer north of the Rim.

For Tuesday onward...High pressure aloft shifts to a location over
Colorado and Kansas with the steering flow pointing from
southeast to northwest. More big storm complexes are anticipated
over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico and this steering flow
will open the door to moisture spreading across all of northern
Arizona. The deepest moisture will push into areas along and south
of the Mogollon Rim but also into northwest Arizona. The monsoon
is here to stay for a while.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
will affect areas of northern Arizona through 03Z before
diminishing. Stronger storms will lead to brief IFR conditions in
+RA. A few storms may become severe producing 50 kt surface winds
and hail up to an inch in diameter...severe storms are most
likely southwest of a KSEZ to KPRC line. Similar storm activity on
Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Numerous showers and storms are expected along
and south of the Mogollon Rim through Tuesday with scattered
coverage elsewhere. Timing of storm activity will generally be from
late morning through mid evening. Expect higher humidity and cooler
temperatures.

Wednesday through Friday...Increasing monsoon moisture will bring
greater storm coverage across all of northern Arizona.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening FOR AZZ008-015>018-037-
038.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MMcCollum/MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

AZZ008-015>018-037-038-170700-
Yavapai County Mountains-Western Mogollon Rim-
Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-Northern Gila County-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for the The White Mountains and Mogollon
Rim southwest into Northern Gila and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Today deeper moisture will surge in from Mexico bringing an
increase in thunderstorm coverage which will be a trend into the
midweek. The main threats will remain localized flooding and
lightning. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued starting at 11 am
and continuing into Monday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Activity will spread further northward with each day for better
coverage north of the Mogollon Rim by the mid-week. Models
suggest a slight drying trend could be possible by later next
week depending on the movement of the high pressure but it is
still early to settle on that outcome.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

AZZ004>007-009>014-039-040-170700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
Chinle Valley-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
319 AM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for locations north of the
Mogollon Rim including the Little Colorado River valley, Chuska
Mountains and Deviance Plateau, along with the Northeast Plateaus
and Mesas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
By Sunday, deeper moisture will surge in from Mexico bringing an
increase in thunderstorm coverage which will be a trend into the
midweek. The main threats will remain localized flooding and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Activity will spread further northward with each day for better
coverage north of the Mogollon Rim by the mid-week. Increased
coverage will likely bring an increased flash flood threat by
Wednesday-Thursday. Models suggest a drying trend could be
possible by later next week depending on the movement of the high
pressure but it is still early to settle on that outcome.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             4 W PRESCOTT AIRPORT    34.64N 112.50W
07/16/2017  E1.50 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             3 WSW PRESCOTT COURTHOU 34.53N 112.51W
07/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            JUST BEGAN HAILING WITH LARGEST STONES UP TO
            QUARTER SIZED.

&&

MCT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
457 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZZ013-014-016-170045-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-Little Colorado River
Valley in Apache County-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
457 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HOLBROOK TO SNOWFLAKE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 545 PM MST...

At 454 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Joseph City to 11 miles east of Shumway.
Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and localized half inch hail will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Holbrook, Taylor, Shumway, Linden, Snowflake, Dry Lake and White
Mountain Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 11070 3424 11015 3448 10984 3497 11023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 062DEG 18KT 3488 11034 3444 10988

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
537 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZZ012-013-015-016-170100-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-Little Colorado River
Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
537 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TWIN ARROWS TO SOUTH OF WINSLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AT 30 MPH THROUGH 6 PM...

At 536 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Sunrise to 12 miles southeast
of Winslow. Movement was southwest at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cosnino, Two Guns, Angell, Winona, Walnut Canyon National Monument,
Twin Arrows, Meteor Crater and Walnut Canyon Visitors Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 11157 3467 11098 3481 11066 3530 11127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 061DEG 26KT 3530 11112 3488 11057

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
618 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZZ012-013-015-016-170145-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-Little Colorado River
Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
618 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM METEOR CRATER TO JUST NORTH
OF HEBER WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 645 PM...

At 615 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Twin Arrows to 22 miles
northwest of Aripine. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail, torrential rainfall and winds in excess of 40 mph
will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dairy Springs Campground, Mormon Lake, Tremaine Lake, Starlight
Pines, Double Springs Campground, Chevelon Canyon Dam, Long Lake,
Chevelon Butte, Chevelon Crossing Campground, Chevelon Canyon Lake
Campground, Chavez Mountain and Ashurst Lake Campgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 11159 3435 11072 3466 11055 3513 11128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 036DEG 16KT 3504 11126 3466 11067

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
652 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

AZZ008-012-015-016-018-037-038-170230-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Yavapai County
Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Northern Gila County-Yavapai
County  Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Eastern Mogollon
Rim-
652 PM MST SUN JUL 16 2017

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF TO NEAR HEBER WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 730 PM...

At 649 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Flagstaff to 13 miles
north of Forest Lakes. Movement was southwest at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stoneman Lake, Tonto Village, Mormon Lake, Tremaine Lake, Whispering
Pines, Munds Park, Clints Well, Christopher Creek, Happy Jack,
Starlight Pines, Kohls Ranch, Hunter Creek, Washington Park, Mead
Ranch, Wet Beaver Creek Campground, Upper Lake Mary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 11187 3422 11105 3456 11065 3509 11152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 041DEG 29KT 3499 11153 3453 11080

JJ