Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 31, 2017Grand Forks County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2017, 6:39 PM CDT for Grand Forks County, North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 31, 2017, 6:39 PM CDT (23:39 UTC)
Expired
Jul 31, 2017, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Grand Forks County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 3:39 PM CDT, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 3:39 PM CDT, 3 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Forecast on schedule and very short range models continue to have
a good handle on the situation. Cold front just east of Winnipeg
to Langdon to Leeds ND to west of Bismarck at 330 pm will move
east thru the rest of the aftn/eve and with 3000-4000 j/kg sfc
based cape see no reason for storms not to continue to form
along the front. 0-6 km shear is weak 25 kts, isold 30 kts, so
long lived supercells not likely but given strength of the
instability growth into the hail zone is likely for some storms
along with potential for damaging winds from outflow as storms
weaken.

Activity will weaken after dark by the time it gets to Bemidji-
Fargo-Lisbon and then pretty much fall apart overnight.

Tuesday will see north wind at drier and a bit cooler air. Brief
high pressure nosing but some 850 mb moisture around so probably
some daytime cumulus. Some hint at a low shower threat in far NW
MN but left it dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Stronger 500 mb short wave to move south-southeast thru the area
Wednesday as been well advertised the past few days. Good mid and
upper level dynamics to work with but lack of instabily means
more showery system for us. But a more widespread rainfall. Does
look like highest qpf regulated to central and northeastern MN as
the upper wave strengthens over eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin.

Break from the heat as temps drop to a bit below normal values
Wed-Thu.

Thursday night thru Monday...
Pattern de-amplifies during the extended forecast. Long wave trough
over eastern North America strengthens and weakens during the
period. Also the long wave trough shifts a little east through the
period. Long wave ridge over the west coast of Canada shifts east
and flattens during the period. Expect linger shower threat Wed
night and into Thursday, esp for areas east of the Red River.

BThe ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS initially. The GFS
was faster than the ECMWF with the next trough that rotates into
the Northern Plains late Sat/early Sun. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
were trending north and slower. Will blend the models.

&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

VFR thru the pd...though risk of a few storms DVL,GFK,TVF nr the
front as it moves through late aftn/eve to bring briefly lower
conditions. Winds south- southwest turning northwest behind the
front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JH/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:36 AM CDT, 15 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>016-022-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-
039-054-010845-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-Mahnomen-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh County-
336 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Cold front will push into the NW portion of the area between 4 and
7pm initiating thunderstorms. A few of the multicell storms will
become strong or temporarily severe. The primary threat for any
thunderstorm will be heavy rainfall within a short duration along
with wind gusts to 60mph or hail around an inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday. Severe storms are not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ003-017-023-024-027>032-040-NDZ049-052-053-010845-
Clay-South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
336 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening and into the
overnight. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday. Severe storms are not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:39 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
639 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2017

NDZ027-029-030-010045-
Steele ND-Traill ND-Grand Forks ND-
639 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAILL AND NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kempton, or 24 miles west of Grand Forks, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arvilla around 640 PM CDT.
  Kempton around 645 PM CDT.
  Northwood around 700 PM CDT.
  Hatton around 720 PM CDT.
  Holmes around 725 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4789 9780 4800 9758 4772 9702 4748 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 314DEG 19KT 4786 9759

Knutsvig

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 31, 5:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFKittson, Roseau42 min
Jul 31, 5:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFKittson, Marshall63 min
Jul 31, 6:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFMarshall, Polk55 min
Jul 31, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.