Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Current convection moving into the valley region will continue to
propagate east with overall weakening trend. Current timing would
have pcpn exiting the FA by mid morning but will monitor and
adjust accordingly.

Upper low will continue to propagate east along the international
border region today. Associated surface boundary currently just
west of the valley should clear the forecast area to the east
early this afternoon. Although low level forcing looks to be
lacking, any lingering outflows from current convection could
combine with respectable cold pool with upper low to produce
afternoon convection mainly over the ne FA. With low freezing
levels cannot rule out some marginally severe hailers with
stronger storms. Column begins cooling so not as warm today.
breezy conditions today mainly west of the valley.

As upper low continues to propagate east any lingering showers/T
should be confined to the far ne this evening. Stronger push of
cold advection should allow temperatures to drop off into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Surface high pressure will build into the FA Sunday for dry
conditions. With quite a bit cooler airmass in place highs in the
70s expected.

Surface high shifts east Sunday night setting up increasing return
flow and warm advection keeping temperatures from falling off too
far. Highs should recover back into the 80s Monday from valley
west.

Next wave to track across southern Canada Monday night into
Tuesday for return of rain chances as frontal boundary crosses the
fa.

Tuesday-Friday...Looks like this period will offer a nice stretch of
weather, if you enjoy daytime temperatures near 80F, mainly dry
weather, and relatively light winds. Models in decent agreement with
the large scale pattern which places the forecast area under the
control of SFC high pressure for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Convective threat appears to be fairly isolated, so only mentioned
some VCTS for now at the TAF sites. If it gets closer can update
with better timing details. Otherwise, fairly low winds until
Saturday day hours. Ceilings should all be VFR, although guidance
is trying to indicate some fog or low clouds around KBJI toward
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG/Voelker
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
445 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221200-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
445 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening across
the region. However, details such as coverage, timing, and exact
location are still uncertain. The potential exists for hail up to
2 inches in diameter or greater, winds up to 75 mph, tornadoes,
and localized heavy rainfall.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees across portions of the
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The potential exists for scattered severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across the northern Red River Valley and northwest
Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this afternoon.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N MINNEWAUKAN         48.14N 99.25W
07/21/2017                   BENSON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WBARRETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

NDZ014-015-026-220600-
Nelson ND-Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...CENTRAL
NELSON AND SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bartlett, or 19 miles southeast of Devils Lake, moving east at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bartlett around 1240 AM CDT.
  Lakota around 1245 AM CDT.
  Mapes around 1255 AM CDT.
  Michigan around 100 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4809 9865 4813 9794 4783 9796 4784 9852
      4785 9853 4785 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 270DEG 32KT 4800 9849

VG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
218 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

MNZ001-002-NDZ029-030-038-039-220745-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-Steele ND-Traill ND-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
218 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORMAN...SOUTHERN POLK...
NORTHERN CASS...TRAILL...NORTHEASTERN BARNES AND SOUTHEASTERN STEELE
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cummings to near Pillsbury. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Cummings around 220 AM CDT.
  Nielsville around 225 AM CDT.
  Caledonia around 230 AM CDT.
  Shelly around 235 AM CDT.
  Halstad around 240 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include American Crystal
Sugar and West Argusville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4677 9759 4714 9801 4761 9691 4732 9631
      4715 9671 4715 9683 4711 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 313DEG 33KT 4754 9696 4715 9787

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
244 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S HUNTER              47.16N 97.22W
07/22/2017  M60 MPH          CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION

&&

TGRAFENA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
316 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

MNZ002-003-022-027-028-030-220900-
West Becker MN-East Becker MN-Clay MN-Mahnomen MN-Norman MN-
West Otter Tail MN-
316 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN...
NORTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL...SOUTHERN MAHNOMEN AND BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL
400 AM CDT...

At 316 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Twin Valley to Fargo. Movement was
southeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Twin Valley and Syre around 320 AM CDT.
  Flom and Faith around 325 AM CDT.
  Glyndon around 330 AM CDT.
  Waubun and Buffalo River State Park around 335 AM CDT.
  Ogema and Muskoda around 340 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Moorhead Airport and
Many Point  Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4661 9599 4687 9678 4692 9675 4693 9679
      4736 9618 4718 9555 4715 9555 4715 9545
      4708 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 293DEG 42KT 4722 9630 4689 9682

TG

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