Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
618 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Storms developed shortly after 430 PM in an area of 1K to 2K J/KG
MUCAPEs and are moving east at around 35 kts. The best shear is
behind the sfc boundary however latest operational EMC/RAP is
showing sufficient sfc-6km shear for development of severe
thunderstorms. Timing these storms out of the CWA in the 02Z to
03Z timeframe and a severe TS watch has been issued valid until
03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The chance for strong to severe storms will be the main forecast
challenge for late afternoon into early evening. Currently the
cold front is moving into the Devils Lake region, with fairly
gusty west to northwest winds behind it. Seeing afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points that
have crept above 60F. Looking at the SPC meso page, it shows
1000-1500 J/kg of sfc based CAPE, but mainly right along the front
and behind it. Strong push of 850mb winds into the northern Red
River Valley, where the Mayville radar shows a few small cells. So
far not seeing any enhanced cumulus development along the cold
front, so will continue to watch that too. Otherwise, most of the
high resolution models continue to break out storms along the
front, mainly in the 4 to 6 pm time frame. Most of the activity is
forecast to move east of the FA by 10 pm or so, so not looking at
a prolonged event. The high res models also show just a few
stronger cells and not a widespread event. After the storms move
out, west to northwest winds may be a little gusty into the
early evening, but should die down after sunset. Most of Thursday
looks to be quiet for the FA, although there may be a little pcpn
on the northern and southern fringes. Highs look to be a little
cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

For Thursday night through early next week, the Northern Plains
remain in northwest flow aloft as a trough digs into the eastern
half of the US. Thus rain chances primarily depend on the
propagation of a series of weak shortwaves moving quickly from
Canada to the Midwest. This pattern will yield some showers and
storms on and off through early next week, but poor operational
model agreement makes it difficult to pinpoint timing and location
of rain chances at this point. That being said, the weekend doesn't
look to be a wash out by any means, and heavy rain or severe storms
are not anticipated due to lack of model agreement on any
significant signal.

The main impact for Friday through Sunday will be cooler weather.
Temperatures for Friday through Sunday will be below normal, with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures look to rebound starting
on Monday as an upper ridge builds in from the Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR although a line of strong to severe storms will be into the
TVF area by 00Z and BJI area around 01Z. Storms will move through
quite rapidly as they are moving east at 35 kts. More storms may
develop behind the initial line, clearing the area by 03Z. VFR and
NSW aft 03Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Speicher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
717 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

MNZ001>003-007>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ030-039-049-052-
053-230030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Traill-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
717 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of southeast
North Dakota and west central and northwest Minnesota. Scattered
thunderstorms will move out of the area by 10 PM CDT. These storms
may be severe with the primary threats being large hail and
damaging winds, although a few tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered Thunderstorms are possible across the northern Red River
valley and portions of northwest Minnesota this coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be necessary.

MNZ004>006-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>029-038-054-230030-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Barnes-Western Walsh County-
717 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered Thunderstorms are possible across the northern Red River
valley and portions of northwest Minnesota this coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Speicher

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S FERGUS FALLS        46.24N 96.07W
06/21/2017  M74 MPH          OTTER TAIL         MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE FERGUS FAKKS AIRPORT.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
715 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

MNZ016-017-022>024-220100-
Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-Hubbard MN-North Clearwater MN-
South Beltrami MN-
715 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUBBARD...
SOUTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...CENTRAL MAHNOMEN AND SOUTHERN CLEARWATER
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beaulieu, or 33 miles north of Detroit Lakes, moving east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Naytahwaush and Mahkonce around 725 PM CDT.
  Island Lake in Mahnomen County, Roy Lake and Pine Bend around 730
  PM CDT.
  Rice Lake and Lower Rice Lake around 735 PM CDT.
  Zerkel around 740 PM CDT.
  Upper Rice Lake around 745 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4719 9589 4747 9596 4750 9576 4750 9556
      4753 9555 4759 9512 4729 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 255DEG 42KT 4730 9582

dtr

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