Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Grand Forks, ND

811 
WWUS53 KFGF 191355
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
855 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

NDC095-191430-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-170719T1430Z/
Towner ND-
855 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN TOWNER COUNTY...

At 854 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Amourdale, or 
43 miles west of Langdon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Rocklake around 905 AM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9947 4900 9900 4898 9900 4869 9922
      4882 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 289DEG 29KT 4887 9932 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JK

312 
WWUS53 KFGF 191417
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
917 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

NDC095-191427-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-170719T1430Z/
Towner ND-
917 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN TOWNER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4900 9947 4900 9900 4898 9900 4869 9922
      4882 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 305DEG 28KT 4877 9909 

$$

JK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Latest radar images show isolated shower development in the Devils
Lake basin and scattered storm development in central and western
North Dakota. Expect shower and storm coverage to increase by mid
morning as showers and storms move east into the area. Still
expecting the greatest severe threat to develop this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Shortwave energy moving east into North Dakota from Montana will be
the initial focus for thunderstorm chances this morning. Favorable
effective shear and moisture and modest instability reside in
western ND, in closer proximity to the surface low, allowing for
storm development early this morning. Expect initial isolated to
widely scattered storms to form in north central North Dakota,
gradually tracking east into the Devils Lake basin area and
northeast North Dakota early this morning. The CAMs indicate that a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in this area with
the main threats being hail to one inch in diameter and gusts to 60
mph.

By mid to late morning, surface based instability will begin
development and the warm front will begin working north into the
southern Red River valley. Additional shower and storm development
in central North Dakota will gradually move into eastern North
Dakota. Many CAMs suggest this development will eventually collide
with warm front forcing in the central valley, yielding thunderstorm
activity strengthening into the strong to severe discrete cells and
eventually a complex of storms moving southeast through the southern
Red River valley in the afternoon. These discrete cells and complex
would have the strongest threats with hail over 2 inches in
diameter, damaging gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes possible. Heavy
rainfall is a notable concern as well with precipitable water
values maxing at 1.5 to 2.0 inches this afternoon, especially over
areas in west central MN that received several inches of rain
recently. Additionally, there is some potential for additional
storm development behind the main complex in the middle to late
afternoon in the central to southern Red River valley, but this is
very uncertain at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thursday-Friday...Weak ridging within zonal flow will lead to a dry
day on Thursday with temperatures near to above normal values.
Return flow commences Thursday night with weak shortwaves possible.
For Thursday night, most guidance suggests axis of instability will
remain across western North Dakota and that any early morning
activity should be weakening as it enters eastern North Dakota.
Although details are still uncertain, the potential does exist for
strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening as the axis of
instability propagates over the region with strong deep layer shear
in place.

Saturday-Monday...A stronger upper level wave will propagate
southeast across Canada into the Great Lakes region. This will
spread a cooler and drier airmass into the region. A few showers
will be possible across northwest Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
The airmass behind this system will be much cooler, and ridging
will lead to below normal temperatures on Sunday and Monday (with
dry weather).

Tuesday...Most guidance is in agreement suggesting upper flow
becoming zonal with the next series of upper waves bringing shower
and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period. Mid to
high level cigs expected through much of the day as scattered
showers and storms move southeast through the area. With
uncertainty regarding exact locations/timing of storm development,
left vicinity mention for now. Greatest coverage will likely be
along/south of a DVL-GFK-BJI line in the afternoon. Expect cigs to
gradually clear out this evening from northwest to southeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-200930-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
417 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the
Devils Lake basin early this morning. Hail to one inch in diameter
and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats expected with these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-
200930-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
417 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A complex of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over the
area this afternoon. Hail over two inches in diameter, wind gusts
to 75 mph, and tornadoes are possible threats with the strongest
storms. Localized heavy rainfall will also be a concern,
especially over areas that received several inches of rain earlier
this week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

BP