Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Grand Forks, ND

613 
WWUS53 KFGF 050014
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNC069-089-135-050045-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170705T0045Z/
Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Roseau MN-
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROSEAU COUNTIES...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Strandquist, or
31 miles northwest of Thief River Falls, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Karlstad, Newfolden, Middle River, Strandquist, Strathcona, Florian
and Englund.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4847 9684 4862 9673 4856 9575 4823 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 278DEG 29KT 4852 9648 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lee

789 
WWUS53 KFGF 050035
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNC069-089-135-050045-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170705T0045Z/
Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Roseau MN-
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSEAU
COUNTIES...

At 735 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Strathcona, or
26 miles north of Thief River Falls, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Newfolden, Middle River, Strandquist, Strathcona, Florian and
Karlstad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4842 9665 4857 9655 4856 9575 4823 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 278DEG 29KT 4849 9621 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Lee

141 
WWUS53 KFGF 050041
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
741 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNC069-089-135-050051-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170705T0045Z/
Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Roseau MN-
741 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
745 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4842 9665 4857 9655 4856 9575 4823 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 278DEG 29KT 4848 9615 

$$

Lee

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Issued a severe thunderstorm watch for much of the area with the
exclusion of Devils Lake Basin and Grant county until midnight.
Most likley scenario to unfold this evening is expected to be a
round of storms developing over the next hour or two. This
activity is expected to propagate to the southeast with severe
threats being large hail, up to 2 inches in size and damaging
downburst winds with speeds up to 70mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Main challenge tonight will be thunderstorms. Latest high
resolution guidance still develops storms in the 4-5 pm time frame
over the northern Red River Valley, then drops them SSE through
the evening. Looking at the SPC meso page, the northern valley
is closer to the better 0-6km bulk shear, at roughly 30 knots.
Values decrease moving southward, more in the 20-25 knot range at
most. Temps have risen in the mid 80s to lower 90s region wide,
with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. SPC meso page shows sfc
based CAPE values in the 4000-4500 J/kg range, but some CIN
remaining. 700mb temps are about 9-10C over central ND near the
boundary, so that is why not much is happening yet.

Still expecting the window for storms in GF/EGF to be from 6-9 pm
and for the FM area to be from 8-11 pm. Once the storms develop,
will see if this timing stills hold true. If so, storms may
impact later evening outdoor holiday events across the southern
half of the FA, while the north may be done by then. Looking ahead
into Wednesday, it appears the boundary will sag southward to the
fringes of the southern and southeast FA. Depending on where
exactly this boundary sets up and how much heating occurs after
the early morning clouds, there could be strong storms around
again. SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk, but will focus
more on this potential after tonights event is done.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

More storm chances for the beginning of the period will be the main
concern for the end of the week and through the weekend.

Global models are coming into better agreement with storm potential
for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. A weak surface
trough with some upper level support looks to be the main forcing
mechanism for convective development by Wednesday evening and
tracking east-southeastward into Thursday morning. Instability looks
to be fairly decent (1500-2500 J/kg) given the time of day with
shear profiles a bit more favorable (35-45 kts) than Tuesday's
event. Therefore, agree with SPC's thinking of a marginal
risk/borderline slight risk is reasonable at this time.

Following any lingering precipitation chances early Thursday, the
rest of the week looks to be relatively dry and quiet. Models
continue to diverge on their synoptic features for the weekend with
the GFS bringing precipitation chances back to the area on Saturday
while the ECMWF and Canadian remain dry. The same goes for any
chances early in the new work week with the ECMWF holding on to its
high and dry solution.

Temperatures will cool down just a bit following the Wednesday
night/Thursday system with highs on Friday back down into the 70s
area wide while ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to from along a line from GFK to the
southwest in the next 2 hours. This activity is expected to move
to the southeast over the next 6 hours with VFR conditions
hereafter.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weak surface trough will move into eastern North Dakota this
afternoon. Thunderstorms will most likely develop in southern
Manitoba and move into northeastern North Dakota...then spread
south along the front. Isolated severe storms with hail up to 2
inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible. The threat
for tornadoes is low, but possible. Coverage of these storms will
be isolated and begin to decay by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. No hazardous weather is expected
the remainder of the week beyond noontime Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

Speicher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNZ004-005-007-008-050015-
East Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Roseau MN-West Marshall MN-
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Halma, or 39 miles northeast of Grafton, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Karlstad, Greenbush, Badger, Kennedy, Strandquist, Halma and
Strathcona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4851 9697 4870 9694 4881 9576 4842 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 264DEG 39KT 4863 9660

Lee