Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Grand Forks, ND

506 
WWUS53 KFGF 092258
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

NDC005-092330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170609T2330Z/
Benson ND-
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY...

At 558 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fillmore, or 42
miles west of Devils Lake, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Fillmore around 600 PM CDT. 
  Baker around 605 PM CDT. 
  Harlow around 610 PM CDT. 
  Knox around 615 PM CDT. 
  York around 620 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9984 4837 9948 4826 9920 4800 9976
      4802 9981 4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 223DEG 40KT 4811 9979 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

591 
WWUS53 KFGF 092315
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
615 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

NDC005-092330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170609T2330Z/
Benson ND-
615 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY...

At 615 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near York, or 32
miles west of Devils Lake, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Leeds around 625 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9962 4837 9948 4826 9920 4809 9957
      4817 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 223DEG 43KT 4824 9955 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

591 
WWUS53 KFGF 092331
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

NDC005-092341-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170609T2330Z/
Benson ND-
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4837 9962 4837 9948 4826 9920 4809 9957
      4817 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 223DEG 40KT 4837 9937 

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Severe thunderstorm chances tonight will be the main challenge
for the period.

Water vapor loop shows upper ridging into the Northern Plains,
starting to transition over to southwesterly flow aloft as a large
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Main shortwave with the
upper trough is lifting north into Canada, but sat loops show
signs of another weaker shortwave lifting northeastward from WY.
Surface low pressure is centered over western ND, with some
cumulus starting to get going on the east side of it along the
Missouri Valley. So far the SPC mesoanalysis page shows surface
and mixed layer instability to still be well capped, with some
elevated showers and storms moving across our northern counties
and southern Canada. Think the cap will start to dissipate in the
next few hours, and CAMs show some stronger storms developing
across north central ND near the Canadian border around the 23 to
00Z time frame. Still some variation as to how far south these
storms build, but with the strong cap think that most of the early
activity will be along and north of highway 2. Deep layer bulk
shear is around 40-50 kts, and with winds backing in the lower
levels some supercells will be possible with the first round of
convection. The SPC storm scale ensemble of opportunity has some
20-30 percent probabilities of over 100 m2/s2 updraft helicity, so
think rotating storms are probable. Dew point depressions are
rather high and LCL heights will not be super favorable for
tornadoes, but they cannot be completely ruled out and very large
hail will be possible.

After that first round moves east during the late evening, many of the
high resolution models bring a second round in from the west after
midnight with the cold front. Some of the models have pretty
strong cells arriving during the 08Z to 13Z time frame early
tomorrow morning, and there will still be around 2500 J/kg of MU
CAPE along with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear. So a second
round of severe is possible late tonight into early morning. There
is still a lot of uncertainty as to where exactly the second round
will track, but highest shear and instability values are mostly
north of the I-94 corridor.

Tomorrow, after the second round of convection blows through there
will be a few lingering showers or storms mainly across the
north, but otherwise a bit more cool and quiet on the backside of
the surface trough axis. Temps will be knocked back a few degrees
but will still be fairly warm in the 80s to low 90s except in the
far north where more clouds and precip will be hanging around.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Sunday and Monday...Southwesterly flow aloft will keep things
fairly active across the region, but models are in pretty good
agreement on the next shortwave remaining mostly to our south over
SD into central MN. The southern counties could see some storms
from this shortwave late Saturday night into Sunday, but the best
instability will be well to our south. Will continue to keep high
chance POPs going but will leave out any mention of severe. Sunday
night should remain fairly quiet but another shortwave approaching
from the southwest late Monday could bring some precip over our
far south by late afternoon. Temperatures for the end of the
weekend and early next week will be near to slightly above
seasonal averages.

Tuesday through Friday...The active pattern will continue for at
least the first half of the upcoming week. Tue will feature an
upper low lurking over the Northern Rockies with the northern
plains in southwest flow sandwiched between this low and an upper
midwest ridge. At the surface, strong low pressure complex will
likely move right through the forecast area during the day Tue
with a warm and cold frontal boundary providing opportunities for
convective activity. Wed would feature more of a cold pool setup
as stacked system heads toward western Ontario. Thu and Fri have
the best chance for dry weather for most if not all of this time
frame.

The above average temperatures will continue on Tue and Wed before
dropping back into the more average 70s on Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

All sites should remain VFR throughout the period with a couple of
rounds of convection coming through. The first round will impact
the northern forecast area this evening, so have VCTS at KDVL,
KGFK, and KTVF. A second round coming in after midnight tonight is
less certain on placement, so will keep mention of the later
convection out of the TAFs for now. Have some LLWS at KFAR and
KBJI later tonight as southerly low level jet kicks in, but will
keep out of the more northern and western TAF sites as they will
be more impacted by convection. Winds will decrease a bit this
evening (other than near convection), but then shift to the west
and northwest by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101300-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Two rounds of severe storms are possible. The first round will be
this evening with scattered severe storms along and north of
highway 2. Significant hail greater than 2 inches is the main
threat, along with damaging wind up to 75 mph, an isolated
tornado, and excessive rainfall.

Round 2 is less certain, but confidence is increasing for activity
to move into eastern North Dakota sometime after 4am. The risk
area for this round is anywhere along and north of Interstate 94.
The main threat will be damaging winds, potentially greater than
75 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of thunderstorms are possible throughout this period. The
best chance for widespread convective activity and severe storms
is Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this evening, and potentially again
during the early Saturday morning hours.