Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

267 
WWUS53 KFGF 022128
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
428 PM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

NDC005-071-095-022200-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170602T2200Z/
Benson ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-
428 PM CDT FRI JUN 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL BENSON...SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER AND NORTHWESTERN
RAMSEY COUNTIES...

At 427 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Churchs Ferry,
or 22 miles northwest of Devils Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Maza around 435 PM CDT. 
  Garske around 500 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4820 9934 4841 9945 4848 9930 4840 9875
      4839 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 234DEG 22KT 4833 9922 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Voelker

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
248 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Timing, coverage and intensity of convection main impacts through
the short term. Main boundary currently from MOT to west of BIS
to a sfc low near MBG. A weaker e-w boundary extends from the low
along the ND/SD border then se to near RST. Main wave pushing
across e MT/WY with a weaker impulse under the ridge axis over the
central dakotas border region. Ahead of boundary dewpoints around
60 reside to the western FA boundary. Bulk shear remains weak
however sufficient instability, cape with favorable mid level
lapse rates over the central dakotas. Cap is weakest over N
central ND and most high resolution model guidance and CAMs
initiate convection along boundary over this region with
secondary area vcnty surface low along s central ND/SD border.
Have maintained highest pops across the NE with adjustments likely
through the evening. Although shear weak sufficient instabiility
and cape for severe storms. Inverted V soundings and dcape all
favorable for strong winds along the the spotty hail threat.
Modest low level jet develops later this evening which may aid in
maintaining convection across northern Mn to some degree
overnight. Temperatures to remain mild overnight.

Convection will continue to propagate eastward across mainly the
Mn portion of the forecast area into early afternoon. Not a great
deal of cooling behind the front so with solar temperatures should
recover with most areas remaining above average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

On Saturday night through Monday night, an upper level ridge
approaches and builds in from the west, bringing drier air aloft and
warmer air. This results in highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s with
generally sunny and dry conditions during this period. A small upper
level disturbance brings small chances for a few showers to parts of
northwest and west central Minnesota during this period, but any
rain will be fairly brief.

For the middle to the end of the week, the ridge moves east out of
the Northern Plains and a more active weather pattern emerges with
one or two upper level short waves moving through the Northern and
Canadian Plains. Model confidence is low in the timing of these
disturbances, but there is definitely a signal that rain chances
will be in the forecast for a few periods with some threat for
storms on one or two days. With increased cloud cover and rain
chances, temperatures will be a bit cooler than the weekend with
highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Highest confidence for T potential in the DVL area so included a
tempo group around 00z give or take an hour or so. With inverted V
soundings strong winds look to be the highest threat so mentioned
45kt gusts with T. Farther east more uncertain on how convection
will hold together so left out of forecast other than VCTS in GFK.
Otherwise general VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Voelker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1201 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031715-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
1201 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

...Scattered severe storms possible late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the region...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance for scattered severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening. The areas with the best chance for
seeing severe thunderstorms are the Devils Lake region into the
northern Red River Valley, mainly between 6 PM and 11 PM. Quarter
sized hail and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.