River Flood Warning 7, NWS Grand Forks, ND

712 
WGUS83 KFGF 201904
FLSFGF
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017


...The flood warning continues for these river locations in 
Minnesota and North Dakota...

  * Fargo on the Red River in Clay and Cass counties
  * East Grand Forks on the Red River in Polk and Grand Forks 
    counties
  * Oslo on the Red River in Marshall, Walsh, Polk and Grand 
    Forks counties
  * Hawley on the Buffalo River in Clay County
  * Dilworth on the Buffalo River in Clay County
  * Hallock on the Two Rivers River in Kittson County
  * Mapleton on the Maple River in Cass County

.The recent string of above average temperatures has resulted in 
most of the snow cover disappearing over much of the southern half
of the Red River Valley. Due to this decrease in snow cover and
precipitation expected today, Monday, some locations across the Red
River Valley are beginning to depict a response in river levels.

Several forecast points along the southern half of the Red River
Valley, in addition to its North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries,
are expected to reach or exceed flood stage in the coming days. 
However, note that there continues to be some level of uncertainty
regarding the precipitation forecast and how much of this water will
flow into the river system as temperatures remain mild through midweek. 

This forecast is for a 7-day period. Therefore, the highest stage
indicated may not reflect the crest for this event.
 
  Forecasts are updated daily and stage values will change as new  
  weather and river information is used. River forecasts usually use
  48 hours of expected precipitation but depending on the situation
  although they may include precipitation expected through the next 72
  hours.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...turn around, don't drown... 
 
 - Don't travel through flooded areas!

 - Persons in the warned area need to take steps to protect life 
   and property. If necessary move to a higher and safer location.

 - Persons living in the Red River Basin should monitor river 
   levels while the river is in, or near, flood.

For more information, go to the AHPS/River section 
on our web page at:      www.weather.gov/grandforks

&&

MNC027-NDC017-211904-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0001.170221T0130Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.1.ER.170221T0130Z.170224T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Fargo...on the Red River.
* From this evening until further notice...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Monday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Monday afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 21.0 feet by Thursday evening.
* The river is forecast to crest near 21.0 feet on Thursday during 
  this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 22.0 feet, Fargo...North Broadway bridge is
  closed.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Red River
  Fargo             18.7   20.0   20.8   21.0   20.6   19.7   18.3


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNC119-NDC035-211904-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0002.170225T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EGFM5.1.ER.170225T0000Z.170226T2335Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...East Grand Forks...on the Red River.
* From Friday evening until further notice...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 11:45 AM Monday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Friday evening and continue to
  rise to near 31.0 feet by Sunday afternoon. additional rises are 
  possible thereafter.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 33.0 feet, Agricultural flooding begins 
  along the Red River of the North between Grand Forks (River Mile 
  296) and Oslo (River Mile 271).

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Red River
  East Grand Forks  17.9   19.1   21.5   26.1   29.5   30.8   31.0 


LAT...LON 4768 9674 4807 9698 4810 9719 4767 9699


$$

MNC089-119-NDC035-099-211904-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0003.170225T1328Z-000000T0000Z/
/OSLM5.1.ER.170225T1328Z.170227T1155Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Oslo...on the Red River.
* From Saturday morning until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Monday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Saturday mid-morning and 
  continue to rise to near 29.2 feet by Monday morning. Additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 30.0 feet, Moderate Flood Stage.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Red River
  Oslo              11.8   14.4   18.3   22.1   25.8   28.3   29.2 


LAT...LON 4810 9721 4807 9698 4846 9706 4848 9725


$$

MNC027-211904-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0004.170222T0300Z-170224T1800Z/
/HWYM5.1.ER.170222T0300Z.170222T1200Z.170223T1200Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Hawley...on the Buffalo River.
* From Tuesday evening to Friday afternoon...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 11:45 AM Monday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Tuesday night and continue to 
  rise to near 8.2 feet by Wednesday mid-morning. The river will fall
  below Flood Stage by Thursday mid-morning.
* The river is forecast to crest at 8.2 on Wednesday mid-morning 
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 8.0 feet, Parts of Hawley city park begin 
  to flood.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Buffalo River
  Hawley             7.2    8.2    8.0    7.7    7.4    7.1    6.9


LAT...LON 4701 9603 4692 9650 4684 9652 4680 9633 4690 9601


$$

MNC027-211904-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0005.170223T0400Z-170228T1600Z/
/DILM5.1.ER.170223T0400Z.170224T1200Z.170227T1000Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Dilworth...on the Buffalo River.
* From Wednesday evening to Tuesday February 28...or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At 11:30 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Wednesday night and continue 
  to rise to near 15.0 feet by Friday mid-morning. The river will 
  fall below Flood Stage by Monday morning.
* The river is forecast to crest at 15.0 on Friday mid-morning during
  this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 15.0 feet, Gage not accessible above 15 
  feet.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Buffalo River
  Dilworth           9.3   11.5   13.7   15.0   14.9   14.0   12.9


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$

MNC069-211903-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0007.170224T0016Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLLM5.1.ER.170224T0016Z.170224T2355Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Hallock...on the Two Rivers River.
* From Thursday evening until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 12:00 PM Monday the stage was 794.7 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 802.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Thursday evening and continue 
  to rise to near 803.0 feet by Friday afternoon. Additional rises 
  are possible thereafter.
* The river is forecast to crest at 803.0 on Friday afternoon during 
  this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 802.0 feet, the Hallock Dam spillway at 
  Gilbert Park is closed to the public. Culverts with flappers are
  checked.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Two Rivers River
  Hallock          796.5  798.8   801.0  802.7  802.9  803.0  802.3 


LAT...LON 4888 9719 4873 9713 4867 9662 4885 9667


$$

NDC017-211903-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0006.170221T0459Z-170223T1312Z/
/MPLN8.1.ER.170221T0459Z.170221T1800Z.170222T0712Z.NO/
104 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Mapleton...on the Maple River.
* From this evening to Thursday morning...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:15 PM Monday the stage was 903.7 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 905.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Monday night and continue to 
  rise to near 905.5 feet by Tuesday early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below Flood Stage by early Wednesday morning.
* The river is forecast to crest at 905.5 on Tuesday early afternoon 
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 905.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage...Minor.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27

Maple River
  Mapleton         905.4  904.6  902.2  901.0  900.5  900.3  900.2


LAT...LON 4694 9710 4679 9732 4670 9722 4690 9691
      4700 9698                      

$$

Lee

072 
WGUS83 KFGF 210422
FLSFGF
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017


...The flood warning has been extended for these river locations in 
Minnesota...North Dakota...

  * Fargo...on the Red River...in Clay and Cass Counties
  * East Grand Forks...on the Red River...in Polk and Grand Forks 
  Counties
  * Oslo...on the Red River...in Marshall...Walsh...Polk and Grand 
  Forks Counties
  * Hawley...on the Buffalo River...in Clay County
  * Dilworth...on the Buffalo River...in Clay County
  * Hallock...on the Two Rivers River...in Kittson County
  * Mapleton...on the Maple River...in Cass County
  
.Several forecast points along the Red River, in addition to
its North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries, are expected to reach or
exceed flood stage in the coming days. 

The recent string of above average temperatures has resulted in 
most of the snow cover disappearing over much of the central
and southern Red River Valley. Due to the increased snow melt
and rainfall in the 0.20 to 0.50 inch range in the Red River
valley on Monday, some locations are beginning to depict a response
in river levels.


This forecast is for a 7-day period...the highest stage indicated
  may not reflect the crest for this event.

  Forecasts are updated daily and stage values will change as new  
  weather and river information is used. River forecasts usually use
  24 hours of expected precipitation but depending on the situation
  it may include precipitation expected through the next 72 hours.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...turn around, don't drown... 
 
 - Don't travel through flooded areas!

 - Persons in the warned area need to take steps to protect life 
   and property. if necessary move to a higher and safer location.

 - Persons living in the Red River Basin should monitor river 
   levels while the river is in...or near...flood.

For more information...go to the AHPS/River section 
on our web page at:      www.weather.gov/grandforks

&&

MNC027-NDC017-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170301T0200Z/
/FGON8.1.ER.170220T1845Z.170223T1200Z.170227T2000Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Fargo...on the Red River.
* until Tuesday February 28...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Monday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and during the next 7 days...Minor 
  flooding is forecast.
* Minor Flood Stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will rise to a crest near 21.0 feet sometime 
  Thursday mid-morning. The river will fall below Flood Stage Monday 
  early afternoon.
* The river is forecast to crest at 21.0 on Thursday mid-morning 
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 22.0 feet, Fargo...North Broadway bridge
  is closed.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Fargo             19.9   20.7   21.0   20.8   20.2   19.1   17.8
LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNC119-NDC035-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0002.170224T2251Z-000000T0000Z/
/EGFM5.1.ER.170224T2251Z.170227T1048Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...East Grand Forks...on the Red River.
* from Friday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Monday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Friday afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 30.9 feet by Monday morning. additional rises are 
  possible thereafter.
* The river is forecast to crest at 28.1 on Friday afternoon during 
  this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 28.0 feet, Flood warning
  stage...minor. Bank full stage.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  East Grand Forks  19.2   21.2   23.8   28.0   30.5   30.9   30.6
LAT...LON 4768 9674 4807 9698 4810 9719 4767 9699


$$

MNC089-119-NDC035-099-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0003.170225T1330Z-000000T0000Z/
/OSLM5.1.ER.170225T1330Z.170228T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Oslo...on the Red River.
* from Saturday morning until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Monday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Saturday mid-morning and 
  continue to rise to near 29.5 feet by Monday evening. additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 26.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage...minor. 
  County road 2 south of Oslo is closed in sections 2 and 11 of 
  Pulaski Township.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Oslo              13.1   16.2   20.3   24.2   27.4   28.9   29.5
LAT...LON 4810 9721 4807 9698 4846 9706 4848 9725


$$

MNC027-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0004.170223T0000Z-170225T1800Z/
/HWYM5.1.ER.170223T0000Z.170223T0600Z.170224T1200Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Hawley...on the Buffalo River.
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday afternoon...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Monday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Wednesday evening and continue
  to rise to near 8.1 feet by early Thursday morning. The river will 
  fall below Flood Stage by Friday mid-morning.
* The river is forecast to crest at 8.1 on early Thursday morning 
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 8.0 feet, Parts of Hawley city park begin 
  to flood.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Hawley             7.1    8.0    8.1    7.9    7.5    7.2    6.9
LAT...LON 4701 9603 4692 9650 4684 9652 4680 9633 4690 9601


$$

MNC027-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0005.170223T0300Z-170301T0000Z/
/DILM5.1.ER.170223T0300Z.170224T1200Z.170227T1800Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Dilworth...on the Buffalo River.
* from Wednesday evening to Tuesday February 28...or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Wednesday night and continue 
  to rise to near 15.0 feet by Friday early afternoon. The river will
  fall below Flood Stage by Monday early afternoon.
* The river is forecast to crest at 15.0 on Friday mid-morning during
  this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 15.0 feet, Gage not accessable above 15 
  feet.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Dilworth          11.2   12.7   14.6   15.0   14.6   13.7   12.7
LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$

MNC069-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0007.170224T1647Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLLM5.1.ER.170224T1647Z.170225T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Hallock...on the Two Rivers River.
* from Friday morning until further notice...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10:00 PM Monday the stage was 794.8 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 802.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by late Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 803.0 feet by Saturday early afternoon. 
  additional rises are possible thereafter.
* The river is forecast to crest at 803.0 on Saturday early afternoon
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 802.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage for Minor 
  flooding. The NWS starts to issue Flood Warnings and 7-day river 
  level forecasts. The Hallock Dam spillway at Gilbert Park is closed
  to the Public. Culverts with flappers are checked. Bankfull Stage.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Hallock          796.0  798.5  800.6  802.5  803.0  802.8  802.3
LAT...LON 4888 9719 4873 9713 4867 9662 4885 9667


$$

NDC017-221622-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0006.170221T1200Z-170223T0600Z/
/MPLN8.1.ER.170221T1200Z.170221T1800Z.170222T0000Z.NO/
1022 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Mapleton...on the Maple River.
* from Tuesday morning to late Wednesday night...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Monday the stage was 904.4 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 905.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Tuesday mid-morning and 
  continue to rise to near 905.1 feet by Tuesday early afternoon. The
  river will fall below Flood Stage by Tuesday evening.
* The river is forecast to crest at 905.1 on Tuesday early afternoon 
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 905.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage...Minor.

&&
 
Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon
(month/day)         02/21  02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27
  Mapleton         905.0  902.9  901.5  900.9  900.4  900.1  899.9
LAT...LON 4694 9710 4679 9732 4670 9722 4690 9691
      4700 9698                      

$$

140 
WGUS83 KFGF 211652
FLSFGF
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
1052 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...The flood warning is now cancelled for these river locations in 
Minnesota...

.River levels are no longer expected to reach flood stage at Hallock.
A much slower response in river levels than previously expected is
occurring due to additional freezing and slowing of water from last
night's below freezing temperatures.

This forecast is for a 7-day period...the highest stage indicated
  may not reflect the crest for this event.

  Forecasts are updated daily and stage values will change as new  
  weather and river information is used. River forecasts usually use
  48 hours of expected precipitation but depending on the situation
  it may include precipitation expected through the next 72 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...turn around, don't drown... 
 
 - Don't travel through flooded areas!

 - Persons in the warned area need to take steps to protect life 
   and property. if necessary move to a higher and safer location.

 - Persons living in the Red River Basin should monitor river 
   levels while the river is in, or near, flood.

For more information, go to the AHPS/River section 
on our web page at:      www.weather.gov/grandforks

&&

MNC069-211722-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170221T1652Z/
/HLLM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for...
* ...Hallock...on the Two Rivers River.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 794.8 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below Flood Stage at 799.5 feet 
  Saturday mid-morning.
* The river is forecast to crest at 799.5 on Saturday mid-morning 
  during this 7-day period.

&&

Daily 7am CDT/6am CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         02/22  02/23  02/24  02/25  02/26  02/27  02/28

Two Rivers River
  Hallock          795.9  797.6  798.8  799.5  799.4  799.0  798.6


LAT...LON 4888 9719 4873 9713 4867 9662 4885 9667


$$

Lee

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Automated stations at KGFK, KGAF, and K2C8 continue to show a
quarter of a mile visibility. Web cams in the region show that
coverage of the most dense fog is fairly spotty. Thus, let the
advisory expire at 9, but will continue to have fog in the grids a
bit longer. Conditions should improve in the next hour or two as
winds pick up from the west.

Otherwise, adjusted POPs and QPF to bump up chances and amounts
from the southern Red River Valley and over the western Devils
Lake basin. These rain areas will transition eastward through the
rest of the morning and afternoon. A few stronger cells in the far
eastern counties continue so will continue with isolated thunder
mention for a bit longer this morning before conditions
stabilize for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Plenty of forecast challenges today, namely dense fog/pcpn
chances/thunder/pcpn amounts and record high temps. So far,
showers with embedded thunder have been moving quickly NNE out of
eastern SD and western MN. Models have shown a ribbon of mid
level instability with a low level jet, working through the Red
River Valley into the northwest quarter of MN today, so that has
been consistent. However, the latest model runs have shown the
instability arriving sooner and ending sooner, so kept the thunder
mentioned this morning and removed it for the afternoon. The pcpn
has developed a little further east than the latest high
resolution models showed, so basically the entire FA has pcpn
chances today. Pcpn amounts so far have been spotty and fairly
light.

The spottiness is always a function of convection, so amounts
will stay on the variable side. Overall, thinking most areas will
probably be lower than a tenth to a quarter of an inch, but if
several rounds of stronger echoes move over the same area, some
quarter to half inch amounts are possible. This would mainly be
over the southern Red River Valley up into NW MN. Dense fog
developed over the Devils Lake region, where the low level
moisture moving northward has encountered the coolest sfc temps.
Went with a dense fog advisory for several counties around Devils
Lake through mid Monday morning. Will keep an eye on visibilities
in that area and adjust as need be. Finally, forecasting a record
high at Fargo, but it appears the Grand Forks records will be
safe. High resolution models show any pcpn moving off to the NE by
late this afternoon, so kept tonight dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tuesday will be the last very mild day, and are currently
forecasting highs just below records. Models continue to show some
light pcpn developing as well, but the details remain quite
sketchy. There is much better agreement by late Tuesday night
into Wednesday, in showing pcpn developing mainly across the
northern half of the FA. Low level temps during this time frame
are borderline for rain or snow, depending on the time of day and
location. The day 2 winter weather map shows an inch or two of
snow possible across the north, but mainly over the Devils Lake
region. Even a hint for freezing rain on the southern fringe of
the pcpn band is indicated. So this system will also bear
watching. Models also differ quite a bit on how fast it will exit
off to the east, but it looks to be by Wednesday evening.

Longer range models are currently in fairly close agreement on
developing a broad trof across northcentral Canada NOAM and
extending southwestward across the western half of the CONUS. This
leaves the path opened for a series of fairly wet systems to work
through the intermountain west and to produce some winter-like
activity into the Great Plains states.

Thursday and Friday... The GFS and ECMWF have been most consistent
in developing a Colorado Low type system across the central plains
...with heavier snow indicated across portions of SD and southern MN
...and only a brush of snow across far southern Red River Valley and
adjacent portions of west-central MN. This most of our area should
stay under a mainly dry northerly flow... with temperatures still
ranging a bit above long term seasonal normals even on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday... though a muddy H5 trof axis persists just
west of the FA into the coming weekend there is no indication of any
well organized storms brewing. Only a scattered snow shower or two
is in the current forecast package for the Red River Basin... with a
hint additional snow possible along the South Dakota.. southern
Minnesota belt. Meanwhile... temperatures continue to linger a good
five degrees above long term normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Very tricky set of TAFs, since there are a lot of aviation issues
to deal with...from fog to showers and thunderstorms, wind shifts,
and low level wind shear. Kept the mention of low level wind shear
at KBJI/KTVF, due to the low level jet focused most in these
areas. Model guidance has not been of much help recently in
regard to its cloud height forecasts, wanting to keep most of the
area in MVFR conditions today. However, outside of the dense fog
area in northeast ND, ceilings have been VFR. Therefore,
hesitant to bring MVFR conditions outside of possibly KDVL or
KGFK. If these lower ceilings seem more probable, later shifts can
adjust. The vsby at KDVL has increased, while KGFK has decreased.
There should be some bouncing around to these vsbys for a while
yet this morning. Otherwise, as the sfc low pressure system moves
thru by later today, winds will turn more westerly. The showers
will gradually end from west to east by this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Gust
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
420 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
420 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will occur over the southern Red River Valley
into northwest Minnesota this morning, although severe storms are
not expected.

Dense fog will continue over the Devils Lake region through mid
morning. Visibilities below a quarter mile will make travel
difficult.

Very mild temperatures will continue to melt the remaining snow
pack, with area rivers and streams slowly responding. Persons
living near rivers, streams, and low lying areas should monitor
for future statements concerning the spring melt.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

One last very mild day is expected on Tuesday, before
temperatures begin a downward trend for mid to late week. This
will slow down or stop the snow melt, but rivers and streams will
continue to respond.

Some snowfall is expected for areas along and north of highway 2
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. At this point, accumulations
of an inch or two are possible over portions of the Devils Lake
region. Some mixed precipitation is also possible.

A winter storm system will move into portions of the Northern
Plains late Thursday into Friday, bringing accumulating snow with
it. Most of the snow will occur south of this area, but some
light accumulations may brush areas south of a Lisbon to Park
Rapids line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
530 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 AM     HAIL             DETROIT LAKES           46.81N 95.84W
02/20/2017  E0.75 INCH       BECKER             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     HAIL             ERHARD                  46.48N 96.10W
02/20/2017  E0.50 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. PHOTO POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST