Frost Advisory 4, NWS Grand Forks, ND

920 
WWUS73 KFGF 050938 
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
438 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-051400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171005T1400Z/
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, 
Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, 
Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji,
Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, 
St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, 
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
438 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid to upper 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged or killed if
  left outdoors and unprotected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

BP

003 
WWUS73 KFGF 051402
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
902 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054-051515-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171005T1400Z/
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-
Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Western Walsh County-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, 
Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, 
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, 
Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji,
Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, 
St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, 
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, 
Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
902 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

With the sunshine, temperatures have quickly rebounded this 
morning.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

The clouds over the Devils Lake region have begun to dissipate,
but there has been a fair amount of cumulus formation east of the
Red River Valley. Overall, most areas should see at least filtered
sun for the rest of the afternoon. Lowered highs just a couple of
degrees north of Devils Lake, where it is still in the lower 40s
and clouds remain. Winds look to stay fairly gusty through the
afternoon, before becoming light around sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

The primary challenge in the short term period will be the extent
of frost late tonight into early Thursday morning. The upper low
will move east of the area by sunrise this morning.

This morning will have a cool start, however H850 moisture over
the area is resulting in about an 4K ft overcast deck over much
of north central and northeast ND. This area of clouds will advect
east of the area by noontime. The early morning cloud cover and
breezy west winds will keep morning temperatures generally in the
low to mid 40s...limiting frost potential for this morning. Skies
will clear by noontime and enough recovery to bring daytime highs
in the mid-50s across most of the region.

Temperatures should fall quickly after sunset tonight with clear
skies through midnight and winds becoming light by late evening.
After midnight, clouds will increase across the south as mid-
level moisture advects north out of eastern South Dakota. The NAM
even brings a touch of precip into the far southern valley however
most other models are dry...thus not planning on adding any POPs
during the overnight period.

The increasing clouds should only reach about the Highway 2
corridor tonight, allowing northern zones to remain clear
throughout the night with winds dying down to 5 mph or less. This
will allow temps to drop into the mid-30s across the north while
cloudy areas remain in the low 40s. Areas north of Highway 2 that
fall into the mid 30s will likely have areas of frost develop
by early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Drier air aloft and upper level ridging will continue to bring dry,
mild conditions with light and variable winds for Thursday and
Thursday night. For Friday through Saturday, expect increased cloud
cover and did maintain slight chances for light rain in the southern
Red River Valley and parts of west central Minnesota as weak upper
level energy moves through, followed by a low pressure system well
to our southeast. Best chances for any rain would be for areas along
and southeast of a Fergus Falls to Park Rapids line, with totals of
less than a quarter inch of rain expected through the weekend. As
the forecast area remains wedged between low pressure systems to the
northeast and south, most locations shouldn't expect a wetting rain
until at least Tuesday. However, this positioning will make for
quite breezy conditions this weekend, with gusts likely peaking in
the 30 to 40 mph range along and west of the Red River Valley
Saturday.

Of greater impact will be chances for frost, and perhaps a freeze,
in the coming week. This is especially for northern counties near
the international border, as the forecast area remains in a more
autumnal weather pattern. With lesser wind speeds and lows in the
mid to upper 30s Thursday night and again from Sunday night into the
middle of next week, frost will be a concern. With a deeper upper
trough looking to swing through in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning timeframe, there is potential for low temperatures near the
freezing mark. Highs through Friday look to generally remain in the
50s to mid 60s, with a slight warming for Saturday, and a cooldown
into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Challenging set of TAFs due to the low clouds that were pushing
eastward this morning. Finally after 11 am, these clouds began to
break up and have become more SCT in nature. However, there has
been more cumulus formation east of the Red River Valley, where
there could be some BKN periods for a few hours this afternoon.
Any remaining cumulus should fade away quickly late this
afternoon, with fairly clear skies most of tonight. Expecting
increasing clouds late tonight into Thu morning, but mainly at
KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-050845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
342 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Speicher