Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 659 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A warm front is currently draped across northern GA...roughly along
and north of Rome to Canton to Comer. Do think Min T values have
been met south of the warm front for this morning. Do not expect any
additional drop off and temps should remain steady or rise slightly.
North of the warm front, temps should stay nearly steady. The warm
front is pushing very slightly northward...but so slowly that a big
jump northward is not expected.

Widespread rainfall along and north of the front is noted across far
NW GA this morning, and will continue to spread eastward. A few
light showers have developed in the warm sector, and also expect
this trend to continue. The widespread rainfall isn't expected to
advance southward until the low pressure center across the ARKLAMISS
moves farther eastward later this morning.

The low pressure center will be accompanied by a frontal boundary,
and potentially a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. This
line looks to be its strongest across the northern half of the CWFA
at this time. There won't be much chance for good surface
instability to occur today, especially with thick cloud cover and
widespread rainfall north of the warm front. But, there is some
surface instability to work with, especially south of the warm
front. North of the front is where the best mid level forcing should
occur - but the closed mid level low currently over central OK,
should fill as it moves eastward and weaken and mid level lapse
rates remain unfavorable for widespread thunderstorm development.

During the mid to late morning hours, the models are progging an
850mb jet to move across the northern half of the CWFA...concurrent
with the best upper/frontal forcing. A few bowing segments within
the broken line of shra/tsra could potentially tap into the stronger
winds aloft. So, strong thunderstorms are definitely possible, with
an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question. Damaging
wind gusts would be the primary mode of any severe weather today.

The front is expected to make it to the southern CWFA by later
today/tonight. A wedge of high pressure will quickly build in across
the CWFA with the surface flow turning eastward. The wedge should
remain in place through the remainder of the short term period. Do
think any breaks in the clouds later this afternoon/evening should
be brief and clouds thicken up once again overnight and remain
cloudy through Thursday. Model soundings are showing high potential
for patchy drizzle and fog developing within the wedge Thursday
afternoon...and increasing in area into the evening.

There isn't really and cold air behind the low pressure/frontal
system. The flow aloft remains zonal through Thursday.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The effects of the next system will begin to be felt on Friday
as moisture increases ahead of a slow moving cold front over the
mid U.S. This will amount to light rain and drizzle chances favoring
north and west GA Friday and Friday night. The more significant rain
moves over the area Saturday and Saturday night. This is where
significant timing differences start to show up with the GFS faster
with moving the deep moisture east and south. Instability is greatly
lacking so am keeping the weather as rain.

The placement of the deep moisture is greater between the GFS and
European on Sunday but the best rain chances look to be over central
GA. Precip chances look to be diminishing/ending Sunday night but if
precip lingers long enough over north GA, there could be a brief change
over to light snow north of ATL and GVL. No accumulations are expected
at this time.

Dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. However, a passing
short wave with very limited moisture affecting far n GA could spit
a few flurries Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to run well above normal until Monday and
Tuesday when they will feel more like winter.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Frontal system going through the TAF sites right now so things are
changing by the hour. light to heavy rain will be ending in the
ATL area over the next few hours. will still see some light
sprinkles through 00z but the rain should end by 19z-20z. Winds
were out of the NW and have turned to the NE-E. Theses winds
should turn back to the NW by 22z then turn back to the NE-E by
06z-08z Thu. The winds will stray out of the E through the end of
the TAF period. Wind speeds are mainly in the 08-12kt range now
but will see winds diminish to 9kt or less by 00z. Ceilings will
stay mainly in the MVFR range through 00z then dip down into the
IFR/LIFR range between 02z- 15z Thu. ceilings will lift back into
the MVFR range by 16z Thu. VSBYs are up and down right now but
should lift back into the VFR range as the Precip moves out. May
see some brief periods of MVFR VSBYs over night with the LIFR
ceilings. Will keep a close eye on this.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  46  54  44 /  80  40  10  20
Atlanta         68  49  56  48 /  80  30  10  20
Blairsville     59  42  52  40 /  90  30  10  20
Cartersville    67  48  55  46 /  80  30  10  20
Columbus        71  55  65  52 /  60  30  10  10
Gainesville     63  46  51  44 /  80  30  10  20
Macon           70  52  61  47 /  60  60  10  10
Rome            65  47  57  47 /  80  20  10  30
Peachtree City  69  49  59  46 /  80  30  10  20
Vidalia         73  54  61  49 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Merritt
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-212000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
249 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today through
the early evening in portions of central Georgia. The main
hazards will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, another round of wet weather can be expected Friday
through Sunday along with areas of fog. It will even be possible
for a brief change over to light snow over far north Georgia
Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
124 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ051-061-062-075-201915-
Taliaferro GA-Glascock GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
124 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALIAFERRO...
GLASCOCK...NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
EST...

At 124 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Cadley to near Shoulderbone...and moving east at
40 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Warrenton, Gibson, Norwood, Camak, Springfield, Cadley, Shoals,
Jewell, Beall Springs, Mayfield, Powelton, Barnett, Reese, Mesena,
Shoulderbone, Bastonville and Culverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3319 8256 3336 8316 3337 8314 3360 8265
      3359 8264 3346 8259 3341 8255 3335 8255
      3336 8253 3334 8250 3334 8245 3333 8242
      3332 8241 3331 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 272DEG 34KT 3357 8269 3340 8306

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ048-058>060-070>072-201930-
Butts GA-Putnam GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
145 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTTS...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHERN LAMAR...MONROE...JONES...JASPER AND SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM EST...

At 145 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Turtle Cove to near Flovilla to Aldora...and
moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Barnesville, Eatonton, Jackson, Forsyth, Gray, Monticello, Flovilla,
Shady Dale, Aldora, Bradley, Turtle Cove, Wayside, Resseaus
Crossroads, Round Oak, Blount, Liberty Hill, McElheneys Crossroads,
Collier, Juliette and Johnstonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3317 8332 3318 8343 3304 8339 3290 8357
      3293 8370 3295 8371 3295 8373 3293 8374
      3303 8424 3323 8409 3341 8389 3338 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 279DEG 37KT 3333 8384 3320 8389 3303 8418

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
210 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ069-079>081-091-093-094-202000-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
210 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN
PEACH...TAYLOR...NORTHERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN UPSON...CRAWFORD AND
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

At 210 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Baldwinville, or near
Talbotton...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fort Valley, Butler, Roberta, Talbotton, Marshallville, Reynolds,
Junction City, Geneva, Nakomis, Baldwinville, Hicks, Po Biddy
Crossroads, Potterville, Knoxville, Howard, Lee Pope, Salem,
Prattsburg, Sandy Point and Horns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8464 3277 8451 3280 8386 3275 8382
      3244 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 274DEG 43KT 3264 8450

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ050-060>062-071>074-084-202000-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Hancock GA-
Warren GA-Jones GA-Greene GA-
230 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...PUTNAM...BALDWIN...EASTERN MONROE...
HANCOCK...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...JONES AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM EST...

At 229 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Liberty to near Browns Crossing to near
Arkwright...and moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Gray, Sparta, Gordon, Ivey, Midway-Hardwick,
Phoenix, Meriwether, Shoals, Postell, Bradley, Beulah, Wayside,
Allenwood, Mountain Springs, Resseaus Crossroads, Plant Harlee
Branch, Hardwick and Browns Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3334 8269 3305 8291 3286 8335 3287 8339
      3290 8341 3288 8344 3294 8370 3295 8371
      3295 8373 3294 8373 3296 8381 3315 8351
      3342 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 278DEG 51KT 3337 8316 3311 8338 3296 8373

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ080>084-094-095-202030-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
Twiggs GA-
255 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEACH...WESTERN WILKINSON...
EASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHERN BIBB...NORTHERN HOUSTON...CRAWFORD AND
TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EST...

At 253 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Skipperton to Potterville...and moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Fort Valley, Jeffersonville, Warner Robins, Centerville,
Byron, Reynolds, Robins Air Force Base, Marion, Nakomis, Powerville,
Skipperton, Miami Valley, Jack Brown Estates, Bullard, Rutland,
Fitzpatrick, Potterville, Ripley and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3251 8392 3251 8403 3252 8405 3251 8411
      3251 8420 3280 8384 3278 8314 3250 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 268DEG 55KT 3274 8372 3253 8410

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

GAZ061-062-073>076-084-202030-
Wilkinson GA-Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Glascock GA-
Hancock GA-Warren GA-
301 PM EST WED DEC 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WILKINSON...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...GLASCOCK...
SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EST...

At 300 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Jewell to Linton to Gordon...and moving east at 50
mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Sandersville, Gibson, Gordon, Tennille, Ivey,
McIntyre, Stapleton, Oconee, Avera, Mitchell, Deepstep, Edge Hill,
Edgehill, Hamburg State Park, Shoals, Downs, Grange, Agricola and
Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3307 8255 3284 8294 3287 8339 3290 8341
      3291 8340 3292 8336 3294 8336 3310 8308
      3337 8282 3330 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 275DEG 42KT 3332 8280 3310 8301 3291 8332

WIND...40MPH