Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1120 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Have dropped the Tropical Storm Warning following the NHC
downgrade of Nate to a Tropical Depression. There remains to be a
flash flood threat and a tornado threat as TD Nate continues to
impact the area. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of north Georgia through 8 AM Monday. A Tornado Watch is
not expected at this time, but stay alert to changing conditions
where a Tornado Warning/Watch may be necessary. Winds have
struggled to get to Tropical Storm-force over Alabama this
morning, but winds could still meet advisory criteria through
midnight tonight. Have gone ahead and included counties along and
north of a line from Polk, to Cherokee, to White in a Wind
Advisory through midnight.

Additional updates to the forecast will be made as necessary.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 745 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017/

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH SOME SLIGHT EXTENSION SOUTHWARD...

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Nate should move northeastward today and into the TN Valley by
this afternoon. Bands of showers...occasionally heavy...will
spread over north and central GA through the afternoon. Nate
will continue to move north of the forecast area this evening
and the most significant rain should be before 06z. The air
mass will remain warm and tropical in the wake of Nate...so chance
to likely pops will remain across much of the area into Monday.
Enough instability today to support scattered thunderstorms...so
thunder wording has been increased from slight chance to chance.
Latest forecast has a faster track for Nate...so highest QPF should
be sooner. The FFA has been adjusted to forward to start at 8 am
today.

Dew points expected to remain in the 70s through the short
term...giving us giving us above normal temperatures for most
of the area.

Tropical storm force winds should affect the northwest corner of the
state and the Tropical Storm Warning will include the northwest
counties...generally from Buchanan to Blue Ridge and north.

41

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Despite being in the wake of TS Nate, several rounds of showers
and storms can be expected through midweek given broad upper
trough to the west allowing the CWA susceptible to weak impulses
traversing the flow and a lingering moist environment. Carrying
likely pops north to chance elsewhere mainly through Wednesday.
Possible fropa or at least advancement of a boundary from the west
and
some amplifying midlevel ridging should return to the area by
Thursday so have trended down slight to chance pops which
gradually get oriented more east and south and should set up a
mostly dry next weekend. Progged temps stay about 7 to 10 degrees
above climo norms with many locations staying in the low to mid
80s. Will have muggy first half of the week given 70 deg dewpts in
aforementioned regime.

Baker

HYDROLOGY...
Latest WPC guidance supported notable QPF amounts a bit earlier
than before. Still thinking 3 to 5 inches with locally higher, but
have adjusted the current Flash Flood Watch a bit farther south
mainly west of Atlanta and to have an earlier start of 12z instead
of 16z. If the trend for additional precip on Monday and Monday
night continues, then the watch may need to be extended into
Monday night.

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR-MVFR conditions through late morning then mostly MVFR for the
rest of the day...becoming IFR again tonight. Surface winds ESE
10 to 15kt with gusts to 25kt. Occasional showers and a few
thunderstorms through the period. A few showers may be heavy.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence for winds.
Medium confidence all other elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  72  81  69 / 100 100  70  60
Atlanta         80  73  80  71 / 100 100  70  60
Blairsville     73  68  78  66 / 100 100  70  70
Cartersville    78  72  82  70 / 100 100  70  70
Columbus        81  75  84  72 / 100  70  60  30
Gainesville     76  72  79  70 / 100 100  70  70
Macon           83  74  87  70 /  90  60  60  30
Rome            78  72  84  70 / 100 100  70  70
Peachtree City  80  73  81  69 / 100  90  70  50
Vidalia         86  76  87  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
zones: Banks...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Cobb...Dade...Dawson...Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...
Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Hall...Haralson...Lumpkin...Murray...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Towns...Union...Walker...White...
Whitfield.

Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for the following
zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Dade...Dawson...
Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...
Polk...Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1123 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1123 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...A Flash Flood Watch and Wind Advisory are in effect across
portions of North Georgia this afternoon and tonight...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue today in
association with Tropical Depression Nate. Some thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with brief, spin-up tornadoes, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. In addition, a Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for portions of north Georgia through Monday
morning, with a total of 3 to 5 inches of rain expected. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for portions of north Georgia through
midnight tonight for wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Gusts of 35 to 40
mph may be possible in the higher elevations of north Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Despite Nate exiting the area by Monday, there will be continued
shower and storm chances through midweek. At this time, no severe
weather is expected Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is request for today across west central and
portions of north Georgia.

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