Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Soggy forecast continues for the CWFA through the period.

An old frontal boundary will continue to linger across the CWFA
through Saturday. Models are progging a wave of low pressure to move
across the old boundary on Saturday. The NAM is also progging a bit
of mid level support with this wave, so convection could be enhanced
on Saturday. Have bumped up pops a bit for Saturday to likely.
Convection won't be diurnal in nature.

Tropical airmass will continue across much of GA through Saturday
with PWATS aoa 2". Average QPF should be less than an inch through
Saturday afternoon. However, localized heavy rainfall will be likely
with any convection that develops. BL winds will be less than 20kt
both days, so storms will be slow moving. The flow may turn more
unidirectional on Saturday, and storm movement may be a little more
organized. FFG is pretty low for western portions of the CWFA and
the metro area. Have gone ahead and issued a FFW for those areas.
The FFW may have to be extended into Saturday, if additional heavy
rains are expected across the same area.

Overall, skies should remain cloudy for much of the day. However,
breaks in the clouds during the early/late afternoon will allow for
some heating. Where these breaks occur, thunderstorms are more
likely. Not confident on coverage, so will continue the scattered
wording.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
A wet pattern continues through much of the extended periods. The
upper level flow will remain out of the southwest with weak waves
moving through the flow across the forecast area, with weak
surface boundaries as well. A good short wave moves across the
area mid week. POPs will continue in the chance to likely range
during afternoon heating, although anticipate some breaks in the
showers and thunderstorms each day. The lack of upper level
dynamics will keep the chance for severe storms low, however
scattered strong to isolated severe storms with locally heavy
rainfall cannot be ruled out.

Guidance temperatures look on track with near normal lows for this
time of year. Given the abundance of moisture and expected cloud
cover afternoon highs should run just below normal through the
period.

Atwell

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy IFR clouds continue this morning, but think the potential
for the cigs to go bkn are pretty low at this time. Lots of cloud
levels out there this morning, but the bkn decks seem to be
050-060 this morning. Do think cu will develop during heating,
with vfr bkn, but a little lower at 040-050. Atmos remains
tropical, so shra could develop at anytime. Do think the max
coverage should be during peak heating. As in the last couple of
days, thunder development should be sct in nature, but not
confident on the exact timing. Will leave out a prob/tempo for
now and let later amds handle the timing, but will go prevailing
shra by 18-19z. Winds are light easterly this morning, but as soon
as mixing gets going, a change back to the sw is likely.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  70  88  70 /  60  40  60  30
Atlanta         84  70  86  70 /  60  40  60  30
Blairsville     81  67  83  65 /  60  40  70  20
Cartersville    86  71  87  70 /  60  40  60  30
Columbus        89  75  90  76 /  60  40  70  30
Gainesville     84  71  86  71 /  60  40  60  30
Macon           90  73  91  74 /  60  40  70  30
Rome            86  72  87  70 /  60  40  60  20
Peachtree City  86  71  88  72 /  60  40  70  30
Vidalia         91  75  90  75 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones:
Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Gwinnett...
Haralson...Harris...Heard...Meriwether...Murray...North Fulton...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...South Fulton...Troup...Walker...
Whitfield.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
442 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few strong
storms are possible. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. With soils at or
approaching saturation across much of north and central Georgia,
localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

There will be scattered TO NUMEROUS thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested, but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
113 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

GAZ027-036>038-049-050-111745-
Madison GA-Morgan GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
113 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...
CLARKE...OCONEE AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 112 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Point Peter to Godfrey...and moving northeast at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...pea sized hail and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Madison, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Danielsville, Lexington, Athens,
Comer, Winterville, Crawford, Colbert, Bostwick, Arnoldsville, Ila,
Woodville, Carlton, Bishop, Maxeys, Hull, Buckhead and Whitehall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3391 8288 3379 8298 3375 8296 3346 8326
      3348 8329 3344 8353 3349 8362 3403 8340
      3404 8336 3405 8339 3426 8330 3424 8317
      3427 8311 3423 8308 3417 8310 3405 8299
      3401 8293 3399 8282 3396 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 230DEG 23KT 3401 8296 3348 8349

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH