Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
A cold front continues to sink southward through the Ohio Valley
this evening into the overnight hours.   Scattered afternoon
convection increasing over portions of north GA where the best
instability located. A few storms could pulse to severe limits
bringing damaging wind gusts through this evening. Convection will
propagate and form along outflow boundaries through the evening
before dissipating quickly with the loss of heating.  Convection
will increase again across north GA after daybreak as the
aforementioned cold front approaches north GA.

A more active day is expected on Friday as the aforementioned cold
front approaches the region. This cold front will bring increasing
thunderstorm chances especially across the northern half of the area
as it moves southward. Chances for severe thunderstorms will
increase through the day on Friday, the 0-6 km bulk shear values
over north Georgia are above 30 knots by Friday afternoon. the main
threat will be damaging winds. Additionally, PWATs remain quite high
ahead of the front (generally 2-2.3"), so heavy rainfall will also
be a concern.

Guidance temperatures are in pretty good agreement through the
period and have taken a blend.  Will need to see how cloud cover
impacts Friday afternoon high temperatures.

Atwell

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No changes made to the extended forecast. Models continue in good
agreement through the long term. Short wave moving across
southern Canada will dig into the eastern trough and develop a
closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This will push the cold
front into south Georgia by Saturday. Drier air will spread over
the CWA Saturday into Saturday night ending the precipitation from
the north. Dry and stable air will hold over the region for
Sunday and Monday with dewpoints in the 60s across the CWA. As
another short wave drops out of the upper plains and into the
eastern trough, the upper low will fill and the trough will
broaden making for a messy pattern. Will trend pops back to
climatology. Temperatures through the long term will be at or just
below normals.

17/01

01

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Some MVFR/IFR ceilings have built into parts of the area this
morning, though not all locations are affected. The bulk of the
low clouds are expected to remain east of ATL/AHN TAF sites,
though brief low clouds may affect these sites through about
13-14z. Low clouds may also affect MCN for some time this morning.
After any low ceilings dissipate, expect diurnal cu field at
3500-5000 feet to develop by midday. Scattered convection will
again develop this afternoon. Winds will remain light and easterly
through around 14- 15z at ATL area sites before shifting to the
west.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on low cloud trends and wind shift timing this morning.
High on all other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  88  71  88 /  30  40  30  30
Atlanta         75  87  72  86 /  30  40  40  30
Blairsville     68  79  65  81 /  30  70  50  10
Cartersville    73  84  70  85 /  30  60  40  20
Columbus        76  93  75  89 /  30  20  30  60
Gainesville     73  84  71  86 /  30  60  40  20
Macon           74  93  74  90 /  30  30  20  60
Rome            74  84  70  86 /  40  70  40  10
Peachtree City  73  88  72  87 /  30  30  40  50
Vidalia         73  93  75  88 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Atwell