Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Convergence zone is well noted in the visible imagery and on the
regional radar loop. Scattered to numerous shra/tsra have developed
along this convergence line during the heat of the day. Storms are
very slow  movers and have been heavy rain producers. Additional
storms are moving north across far SE AL and the far south GA. Many
of the storms down south look to have developed along a differential
heating boundary from early morning clouds. Plenty of abundant
moisture and surface instability for storms to work with. PWATS have
increased to just under 2 inches. With the BL winds blo 20kt, storms
will be slow moving heavy rainfall producers. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, but strong thunderstorms are possible.
An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the question.

For tomorrow, there is relatively no change in airmass. The models
are still hinting at a convergence zone setting up across portions
of the CWFA. Do expect storms to fire along this boundary during max
heating. Again, widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Storms will
once again be capable of producing very heavy rainfall.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Very little adjustment made to forecast per consistent model
solutions in main regime and weekend frontal evolution (still
looking to be sagging into area late Saturday into Sunday). Made
some cosmetic changes to a few pop periods, otherwise refreshed
other elements with latest blend. Will still need to watch heat
indices through late week (mainly Fri/Sat) in parts of central
Georgia. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Long term period continues to look like typical Georgia summertime
weather as the state is dominated by a dirty high pressure ridge.
An enhanced area of moisture remains over the state through
Friday, triggering convective development with diurnal heating.
Model solutions continue to show this ridge will weaken into the
weekend as a cold front approaches the area Saturday. Run-to-run
solution consistency is decent, suggesting the front will move
into the state during the morning or early afternoon Saturday. The
increased moisture associated with the front will remain over the
state into early next week, resulting in higher precipitation
chances - generally in the good chance to likely category, even
into the overnight periods. Solutions diverge at the tail end of
the period, with the GFS developing a large upper high pressure
system over the plains and building it into the southeast into mid
week. The ECMWF doesn't build the high pressure ridge into the
state, but instead promotes the development of localized low
pressure systems over the Carolinas. For now, that's beyond the
extended period, and there's plenty of time to sort it out.

Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through Friday with
highs generally in the 90s across the state. More seasonal
temperatures are expected through the weekend due to the influence
of the precipitation and the frontal boundary. Apparent
temperature continues to be of a concern through the extended
period, with heat index values over 100 degrees at least through
the end of the week. At this time, Heat Advisory criteria is not
met in the grids, but a few locations in east central Georgia / SE
CWA reach values of 103-104 on Friday and Saturday. Will continue
to monitor forecast values into the latter half of the week to see
if a Heat Advisory is necessary.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection will slowly dissipate this evening and by 06Z most
areas should be rain free. Patchy fog will develop late tonight,
mainly in areas that had rain this evening. Much of the same
tomorrow with a cu field developing along with scattered tsra in
the afternoon. Winds will be variable or calm tonight...then light
west to southwest Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on winds this evening.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  91 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         73  89  73  90 /  30  30  20  30
Blairsville     65  84  67  84 /  10  30  20  40
Cartersville    71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        74  92  75  94 /  50  40  20  30
Gainesville     72  88  72  89 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           73  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            71  90  72  90 /  10  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  90  72  91 /  40  30  20  30
Vidalia         74  92  73  93 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

GAZ067-120015-
Meriwether GA-
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

At 752 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Greenville...moving
south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greenville, Manchester, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Raleigh, Durand,
Harris City, Odessadale and Stovall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3304 8486 3310 8465 3289 8453 3285 8471
      3286 8475 3287 8475 3287 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 345DEG 7KT 3301 8474

WIND...40MPH

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