Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Current radar loop shows
showers and isolated Thunderstorms developing across the CWA this
afternoon. The main line of storms associated with the frontal
boundary is located NE to SW just north of the ATL area. For today
and Sunday afternoon the models are showing decent cape values in
the 2000 to 3000 J/kg with some shear noted as well. The better
instability moves south tomorrow along with the frontal boundary and
the associated storms. Expect some storms to become strong to severe
mainly north today and central Sun as the frontal boundary sinks
into south Ga through Monday. The main threats with any storms
through the short term will be gusty winds, frequent lightning,
small hail and heavy rain. Temperatures will remain near normal
through the period.

01

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
No major changes to the extended forecast needed.

Old frontal boundary will continue across portions of central
Georgia through the early part of next week. Even though the
boundary should be very weak and a trough by this time, a
convergence zone will remain. In addition, a shear axis aloft will
remain situated just near the boundary.

The slightly drier airmass across northern GA, north of the
boundary, should begin to erode late Monday or early Tuesday.
Typical summertime high humidities and hot temperatures will be the
rule. Thunderstorms will have plenty of fuel to work with and are
expected each afternoon and evening through the week.

Heat Indices will begin to creep up near 100 degrees by the middle
to late part of next week. Values may approach Heat Advisory
criteria across the SE portion of the outlook area beginning
Thursday.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Overall weakening trend in the showers and thunderstorms over the
last hour or so. Have a TEMPO going for all sites except CSG thru
01-02z. Thereafter could see a few lingering showers before
clearing takes place. VFR conditions /aside from brief
thunderstorms/ are expected for a good majority of the evening and overnight
hours. Some patchy fog and isolated MVFR/IFR cigs are not
completely out of the question around sunrise given the humid
airmass...however confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. A
frontal boundary should keep northern sites dry tomorrow...with a
PROB30 for TSRA covering CSG and MCN where the more unstable air
will reside. Winds still on the west side...though could briefly
flirt with slight NE around sunrise...but speeds should remain
well below 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low on MVFR/IFR cig and fog potential.
High on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  89 /  60  10  20  20
Atlanta         72  88  71  88 /  50  10  10  20
Blairsville     64  82  63  85 /  70   5   5  10
Cartersville    69  88  66  89 /  60   5   5  10
Columbus        74  90  73  90 /  60  40  30  50
Gainesville     70  87  69  88 /  60  10   5  10
Macon           73  91  72  89 /  70  40  40  40
Rome            69  88  66  90 /  70   5   5   5
Peachtree City  70  89  69  88 /  50  20  10  20
Vidalia         74  92  74  90 /  70  60  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
251 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A weak frontal boundary will sag south across much of north and
central Georgia today. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and south of this boundary. Strong
thunderstorms are likely, with a few becoming severe. The main
hazards will be damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, favoring
central Georgia Sunday and Monday, and most so during the afternoon
and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with
gusty winds and frequent lightning the main hazards.
Hail and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Heat Index values may approach 105 degrees in the southeast
portion of the outlook area during the middle to late part of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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